Dataset Information

Prediction of Nephropathy in Type 2 Diabetes: An Analysis of the ACCORD Trial Applying Machine Learning Techniques.

ABSTRACT: Applying data mining and machine learning (ML) techniques to clinical data might identify predictive biomarkers for diabetic nephropathy (DN), a common complication of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). A retrospective analysis of the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) trial was intended to identify such factors using ML. The longitudinal data were stratified by time after patient enrollment to differentiate early and late predictors. Our results showed that Random Forest and Simple Logistic Regression methods exhibited the best performance among the evaluated algorithms. Baseline values for glomerular filtration rate (GFR), urinary creatinine, urinary albumin, potassium, cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein, and urinary albumin to creatinine ratio were identified as DN predictors. Early predictors were the baseline values of GFR, systolic blood pressure, as well as fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and potassium at month 4. Changes per year in GFR, FPG, and triglycerides were recognized as predictors of late development. In conclusion, ML-based methods successfully identified predictive factors for DN among patients with T2DM.

SUBMITTER: Rodriguez-Romero V

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6742939 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Prediction of Nephropathy in Type 2 Diabetes: An Analysis of the ACCORD Trial Applying Machine Learning Techniques.

Rodriguez-Romero Violeta V Bergstrom Richard F RF Decker Brian S BS Lahu Gezim G Vakilynejad Majid M Bies Robert R RR

Clinical and translational science 20190531 5

Applying data mining and machine learning (ML) techniques to clinical data might identify predictive biomarkers for diabetic nephropathy (DN), a common complication of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). A retrospective analysis of the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) trial was intended to identify such factors using ML. The longitudinal data were stratified by time after patient enrollment to differentiate early and late predictors. Our results showed that Random Forest a ...[more]

PMID: 31112000

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Diabetes Mellitus is an increasingly prevalent chronic disease characterized by the body's inability to metabolize glucose. The objective of this study was to build an effective predictive model with high sensitivity and selectivity to better identify Canadian patients at risk of having Diabetes Mellitus based on patient demographic data and the laboratory results during their visits to medical facilities. METHODS:Using the most recent records of 13,309 Canadian patients aged between 18 and 90 years, along with their laboratory information (age, sex, fasting blood glucose, body mass index, high-density lipoprotein, triglycerides, blood pressure, and low-density lipoprotein), we built predictive models using Logistic Regression and Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) techniques. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AROC) was used to evaluate the discriminatory capability of these models. We used the adjusted threshold method and the class weight method to improve sensitivity - the proportion of Diabetes Mellitus patients correctly predicted by the model. We also compared these models to other learning machine techniques such as Decision Tree and Random Forest. RESULTS:The AROC for the proposed GBM model is 84.7% with a sensitivity of 71.6% and the AROC for the proposed Logistic Regression model is 84.0% with a sensitivity of 73.4%. The GBM and Logistic Regression models perform better than the Random Forest and Decision Tree models. CONCLUSIONS:The ability of our model to predict patients with Diabetes using some commonly used lab results is high with satisfactory sensitivity. These models can be built into an online computer program to help physicians in predicting patients with future occurrence of diabetes and providing necessary preventive interventions. The model is developed and validated on the Canadian population which is more specific and powerful to apply on Canadian patients than existing models developed from US or other populations. Fasting blood glucose, body mass index, high-density lipoprotein, and triglycerides were the most important predictors in these models.

Dataset Information

Prediction of Nephropathy in Type 2 Diabetes: An Analysis of the ACCORD Trial Applying Machine Learning Techniques.

Publications

Prediction of Nephropathy in Type 2 Diabetes: An Analysis of the ACCORD Trial Applying Machine Learning Techniques.

Similar Datasets

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