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A systematic review of criminal recidivism rates worldwide: 3-year update.

ABSTRACT: Background: Comparing recidivism rates between countries may provide useful information about the relative effectiveness of different criminal justice policies. A previous 2015 review identified criminal recidivism data for 18 countries and found little consistency in outcome definitions and time periods. We aimed to update recidivism rates in prisoners internationally. Methods: We conducted a systematic review of criminal recidivism rates in prisoners and followed PRISMA guidelines. Using five bibliographic indexes, we carried out non-country-specific and targeted searches for 50 countries with the largest total prison populations. We included reports and studies of released prisoners that reported re-arrest, reconviction and reincarceration rates. Meta-analysis was not possible due to multiple sources of heterogeneity. Results: We identified criminal recidivism information for 23 countries. Of the 50 countries with the largest prison populations, 10 reported recidivism rates for prisoners. The most commonly reported outcome was the 2-year reconviction rate. We were able to examine reconviction between different time periods for 11 countries and found that most reported small changes in official recidivism rates. Overall, for 2-year follow-up period, reported re-arrest rates were between 26% and 60%, reconviction rates ranged from 20% to 63%, and reimprisonment rates varied from 14 to 45%. Conclusions: Although some countries have made efforts to improve reporting, recidivism rates are not comparable between countries. Criminal justice agencies should consider using reporting guidelines described here to update their data.

SUBMITTER: Yukhnenko D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6743246 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A systematic review of criminal recidivism rates worldwide: 3-year update.

Yukhnenko Denis D Sridhar Shivpriya S Fazel Seena S

Wellcome open research 20190101

<b>Background:</b> Comparing recidivism rates between countries may provide useful information about the relative effectiveness of different criminal justice policies. A previous 2015 review identified criminal recidivism data for 18 countries and found little consistency in outcome definitions and time periods. We aimed to update recidivism rates in prisoners internationally. <b>Methods:</b> We conducted a systematic review of criminal recidivism rates in prisoners and followed PRISMA guideline ...[more]

PMID: 31544154

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Project description:BackgroundOffenders with intellectual disability (ID) constitute a distinct subgroup of offenders with mental disorders. Regarding criminal recidivism, it is unclear whether or not offenders with ID in forensic psychiatric settings differ from offenders without ID. Factors associated with criminal recidivism among offenders with ID have been scarcely investigated.AimTo investigate the association between ID and criminal recidivism among offenders sentenced to forensic psychiatric care and to explore the impact of clinical, sociodemographic and offense variables.Materials and methodsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study based on Swedish nationwide registers. A total of 3,365 individuals being sentenced to forensic psychiatric care in Sweden in 1997-2013 were followed from the forensic psychiatric assessment until first reconviction, death, emigration, or 31 December 2013, whichever occurred first. Cox regression models compared rates of recidivism in individuals with and without ID. Impact of clinical, sociodemographic, and offense variables on risk of criminal recidivism was presented as hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs).ResultsOut of 3,365 offenders sentenced to forensic psychiatric care, 259 (7.7%) were diagnosed with ID. During follow-up (0-17 years, median 6 years), one third (n = 1,099) of the study population relapsed into criminality, giving a recidivism rate of 50.5 per 1,000 person-years. We observed an association between ID and a decreased risk of recidivism (HR 0.8, 95% CI 0.6-1.0, p = 0.063), although this reached statistical significance only for the subgroup of male offenders (HR 0.8, 95% CI 0.6-1.0, p = 0.040) and not females (HR 1.0, 95% CI 0.6-1.8). ID offenders with concurrent ADHD tended to have a higher rate of recidivism (73.9 per 1,000 person-years, HR 1.2, 95% CI 0.6-2.4) than ID offenders without ADHD (42.5 per 1,000 person-years, HR 0.8, 95% CI 0.6-1.1). Amongst ID offenders, concurrent autism spectrum disorder, young age or male sex were not associated with recidivism, while previous criminal convictions were strongly associated with recidivism.ConclusionA diagnosis of ID was associated with a lower risk of criminal recidivism among male offenders sentenced to forensic psychiatric care. The association between ADHD and recidivism among ID offenders highlights eligible focus areas in the management of offenders with ID.

Project description:BackgroundNeisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) infection is a serious public health problem. The third-generation extended-spectrum cephalosporins (ESCs) have been used as the first-line treatment for NG infection for almost three decades. However, in recent years, treatment failures with the oral third-generation ESCs have been reported worldwide. This study aimed to estimate worldwide susceptibility rates of NG to cefixime and cefpodoxime by analyzing data from all relevant published studies.Methodology/principal findingsTwo researchers independently searched five databases to identify studies on susceptibilities of NG to cefixime and cefpodoxime published between January 1, 1984 and October 15, 2012. A fixed-effect model was used to perform group analysis, and a ?2 test was employed to make subgroup comparison. Publication bias was assessed with the Begg rank correlation test. The pooled susceptibility rate of NG isolates to cefixime was 99.8% (95% CI: 99.7%-99.8%). The cefixime susceptibility rate of NG isolates from men was significantly lower than that from patients without information of gender or from men and women; the susceptibility rate of NG isolates from Asia was significantly lower than that from other continents; and the susceptibility rate of NG isolates collected before or during 2003 was significantly higher than that after 2003. The pooled susceptibility rate of NG isolates to cefpodoxime was 92.8% (95% CI: 89.0%-95.3%), which was lower than that to cefixime (92.8% vs. 99.8%, ?2 = 951.809, P<0.01).ConclusionsThe susceptibility rate of NG isolates to cefixime varied with the gender of patients and geographical location from which NG isolates were collected, and declined with time. The reported lower susceptibility rate of NG isolates to cefixime and associated treatment failures, as well as the emergence of NG strains with cephalosporin resistance call for the more effective control of NG infection and the development of new antibiotics.

Project description:ObjectivesMathematical models are increasingly important in planning for the upcoming chronic hepatitis C (CHC) elimination efforts. Such models require reliable natural history inputs to make accurate predictions on health and economic outcomes. Yet, hepatitis C virus disease progression is known to vary widely in the literature and published inputs are currently outdated. The objectives of this study were to obtain updated estimates of fibrosis progression rates (FPR) in treatment-naïve patients with CHC and to explore sources of heterogeneity.DesignA systematic review was conducted using Ovid-MEDLINE, Ovid-EMBASE and PubMed databases (January 1990 to January 2018) to identify observational studies of hepatic fibrosis in treatment-naïve patients with CHC.OutcomesStage-constant FPRs were estimated for each study given the reported fibrosis scores and duration of infection. Stage-specific FPRs (ie, F0→F1; F1→F2; F2→F3; F3→F4) were estimated using Markov maximum likelihood estimation. Estimates were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis and heterogeneity was evaluated by stratification and random-effects meta-regression.ResultsThe review identified 111 studies involving 131 groups of patients (n=42 693). The pooled stage-constant FPR was 0.094 (95% CI 0.088 to 0.100); stage-specific FPRs were F0→F1: 0.107 (95% CI 0.097 to 0.118); F1→F2: 0.082 (95% CI 0.074 to 0.091); F2→F3: 0.117 (95% CI 0.107 to 0.129); F3→F4: 0.116 (95% CI 0.104 to 0.131). Stratified analysis revealed substantial variation in progression by study population. Meta-regression indicated associations between progression and infection age, duration, source, viral genotype and study population. Findings indicate that FPRs display substantial heterogeneity across study populations and pooled values from more homogenous subpopulations should be considered when estimating prognosis.ConclusionsThis large meta-analysis presents updated prognostic estimates for CHC derived from newer studies using better diagnostic methods and improves estimates for important patient populations in terms of clinical policy (eg, injection drug users, non-clinical populations, liver clinic patients) and should be a valuable resource for patients, clinicians and clinical policymakers.

Project description:BackgroundThe duration of forensic psychiatric care is in Sweden not determined at the time of sentencing; instead, offenders are regularly evaluated, often with regard to risk of criminal recidivism. The length and justifiability of such a sanction have been greatly debated; however, previous estimates of treatment duration based on datasets delimited to discharged patients-have provided an uncertain groundwork for these deliberations. The aim of this study was to use a more suitable approach to calculate average duration of forensic psychiatric care and to examine the relationship between length of treatment and subsequent recidivism after discharge.MethodsThis retrospective cohort study focused on offenders sentenced to forensic psychiatric care in Sweden between 2009 and 2019 and registered in the Swedish National Forensic Psychiatric Register (n = 2064), with a follow-up period until May 2020. We used Kaplan-Meier estimator to calculate and visualize treatment duration including analyses comparing levels of relevant variables, and then evaluated criminal recidivism in patients discharged from treatment between 2009 and 2019 (n = 640), after stratification for the same variables and dichotomization by treatment duration.ResultsThe median duration of forensic psychiatric care was estimated to 89.7 months (95% CI 83.2-95.8). Treatment was longer in offenders who committed violent crimes, suffered from psychosis, or had a history of substance use disorder, and in offenders whose sentences included special court supervision. The cumulative incidence of recidivism in patients discharged from treatment was estimated to 13.5% at 12 months (95% CI 10.6-16.2) and 19.5% at 24 months (95% CI 16.0-22.8). Corresponding cumulative incidence of violent crime post discharge was 6.3% at 12 months (95% CI 4.3-8.3) and 9.9% at 24 months (95% CI 7.3-12.4). Among other findings, in patients without a history of substance use disorder and patients whose sentences did not include special court supervision, recidivism was significantly higher in those with a shorter treatment duration.ConclusionUsing the entirety of a suitable, contemporary, prospectively enrolled cohort of mentally ill offenders, we were able to estimate-with greater accuracy than previous studies-the average duration of Swedish forensic psychiatric care and rate of subsequent criminal recidivism.

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A systematic review of criminal recidivism rates worldwide: 3-year update.

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A systematic review of criminal recidivism rates worldwide: 3-year update.

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