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Challenges to natural and human communities from surprising ocean temperatures.

ABSTRACT: The community of species, human institutions, and human activities at a given location have been shaped by historical conditions (both mean and variability) at that location. Anthropogenic climate change is now adding strong trends on top of existing natural variability. These trends elevate the frequency of "surprises"-conditions that are unexpected based on recent history. Here, we show that the frequency of surprising ocean temperatures has increased even faster than expected based on recent temperature trends. Using a simple model of human adaptation, we show that these surprises will increasingly challenge natural modes of adaptation that rely on historical experience. We also show that warming rates are likely to shift natural communities toward generalist species, reducing their productivity and diversity. Our work demonstrates increasing benefits for individuals and institutions from betting that trends will continue, but this strategy represents a radical shift that will be difficult for many to make.

SUBMITTER: Pershing AJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6744893 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Challenges to natural and human communities from surprising ocean temperatures.

Pershing Andrew J AJ Record Nicholas R NR Franklin Bradley S BS Kennedy Brian T BT McClenachan Loren L Mills Katherine E KE Scott James D JD Thomas Andrew C AC Wolff Nicholas H NH

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20190805 37

The community of species, human institutions, and human activities at a given location have been shaped by historical conditions (both mean and variability) at that location. Anthropogenic climate change is now adding strong trends on top of existing natural variability. These trends elevate the frequency of "surprises"-conditions that are unexpected based on recent history. Here, we show that the frequency of surprising ocean temperatures has increased even faster than expected based on recent ...[more]

PMID: 31383753

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Project description:Ocean temperatures have been accelerating at an alarming rate mainly due to anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions. This has led to an increase in the severity and duration of coral bleaching events. Predicted projections for the state of reefs do not take into account the rates of adaptation or acclimatization of corals as these have not as yet been fully documented. To determine any possible changes in thermal tolerances, manipulative experiments were conducted to precisely replicate the initial, pivotal research defining threshold temperatures of corals nearly five decades ago. Statistically higher calcification rates, survivorship, and lower mortality were observed in Montipora capitata, Pocillopora damicornis, and Lobactis scutaria in the present study at 31 °C compared to the original 1970 findings. First whole colony mortality was also observed to occur sooner in 1970 than in 2017 in M. capitata (3 d vs. 15 d respectively), L. scutaria (3 d vs. 17 d), and in P. damicornis (3 d vs. 13 d). Additionally, bleaching occurred sooner in 1970 compared to the 2017 experiment across species. Irradiance was an important factor during the recovery period for mortality but did not significantly alter calcification. Mortality was decreased by 17% with a 50% reduction in irradiance during the recovery period. These findings provide the first evidence of coral acclimatization or adaptation to increasing ocean temperatures for corals collected from the same location and using close replication of the experiment conducted nearly 50 years earlier. An important factor in this increased resistance to elevated temperature may be related to removal of the discharge of treated sewage into Kāne'ohe Bay and resulting decrease in nitrification and eutrophication. However, this level of increased temperature tolerance may not be occurring rapidly enough to escape the projected increased intensity of bleaching events, as evidenced by the recent 2014 and 2015 high coral mortality in Hawai'i (34%) and in the tropics worldwide.

Dataset Information

Challenges to natural and human communities from surprising ocean temperatures.

Publications

Challenges to natural and human communities from surprising ocean temperatures.

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