Dataset Information

Parameterization-induced uncertainties and impacts of crop management harmonization in a global gridded crop model ensemble.

ABSTRACT: Global gridded crop models (GGCMs) combine agronomic or plant growth models with gridded spatial input data to estimate spatially explicit crop yields and agricultural externalities at the global scale. Differences in GGCM outputs arise from the use of different biophysical models, setups, and input data. GGCM ensembles are frequently employed to bracket uncertainties in impact studies without investigating the causes of divergence in outputs. This study explores differences in maize yield estimates from five GGCMs based on the public domain field-scale model Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) that participate in the AgMIP Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison initiative. Albeit using the same crop model, the GGCMs differ in model version, input data, management assumptions, parameterization, and selection of subroutines affecting crop yield estimates via cultivar distributions, soil attributes, and hydrology among others. The analyses reveal inter-annual yield variability and absolute yield levels in the EPIC-based GGCMs to be highly sensitive to soil parameterization and crop management. All GGCMs show an intermediate performance in reproducing reported yields with a higher skill if a static soil profile is assumed or sufficient plant nutrients are supplied. An in-depth comparison of setup domains for two EPIC-based GGCMs shows that GGCM performance and plant stress responses depend substantially on soil parameters and soil process parameterization, i.e. hydrology and nutrient turnover, indicating that these often neglected domains deserve more scrutiny. For agricultural impact assessments, employing a GGCM ensemble with its widely varying assumptions in setups appears the best solution for coping with uncertainties from lack of comprehensive global data on crop management, cultivar distributions and coefficients for agro-environmental processes. However, the underlying assumptions require systematic specifications to cover representative agricultural systems and environmental conditions. Furthermore, the interlinkage of parameter sensitivity from various domains such as soil parameters, nutrient turnover coefficients, and cultivar specifications highlights that global sensitivity analyses and calibration need to be performed in an integrated manner to avoid bias resulting from disregarded core model domains. Finally, relating evaluations of the EPIC-based GGCMs to a wider ensemble based on individual core models shows that structural differences outweigh in general differences in configurations of GGCMs based on the same model, and that the ensemble mean gains higher skill from the inclusion of structurally different GGCMs. Although the members of the wider ensemble herein do not consider crop-soil-management interactions, their sensitivity to nutrient supply indicates that findings for the EPIC-based sub-ensemble will likely become relevant for other GGCMs with the progressing inclusion of such processes.

SUBMITTER: Folberth C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6746385 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Parameterization-induced uncertainties and impacts of crop management harmonization in a global gridded crop model ensemble.

Folberth Christian C Elliott Joshua J Müller Christoph C Balkovič Juraj J Chryssanthacopoulos James J Izaurralde Roberto C RC Jones Curtis D CD Khabarov Nikolay N Liu Wenfeng W Reddy Ashwan A Schmid Erwin E Skalský Rastislav R Yang Hong H Arneth Almut A Ciais Philippe P Deryng Delphine D Lawrence Peter J PJ Olin Stefan S Pugh Thomas A M TAM Ruane Alex C AC Wang Xuhui X

PloS one 20190916 9

Global gridded crop models (GGCMs) combine agronomic or plant growth models with gridded spatial input data to estimate spatially explicit crop yields and agricultural externalities at the global scale. Differences in GGCM outputs arise from the use of different biophysical models, setups, and input data. GGCM ensembles are frequently employed to bracket uncertainties in impact studies without investigating the causes of divergence in outputs. This study explores differences in maize yield estim ...[more]

PMID: 31525247

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Project description:Soybean (Glycine max) is an important leguminous crop that is grown throughout the United States and around the world. In 2016, soybean was valued at $41 billion USD in the United States alone. Increasingly, soybean farmers are adopting alternative management strategies to improve the sustainability and profitability of their crop. Various benefits have been demonstrated for alternative management systems, but their effects on soybean-associated microbial communities are not well-understood. In order to better understand the impact of crop management systems on the soybean-associated microbiome, we employed DNA amplicon sequencing of the Internal Transcribed Spacer (ITS) region and 16S rRNA genes to analyze fungal and prokaryotic communities associated with soil, roots, stems, and leaves. Soybean plants were sampled from replicated fields under long-term conventional, no-till, and organic management systems at three time points throughout the growing season. Results indicated that sample origin was the main driver of beta diversity in soybean-associated microbial communities, but management regime and plant growth stage were also significant factors. Similarly, differences in alpha diversity are driven by compartment and sample origin. Overall, the organic management system had lower fungal and bacterial Shannon diversity. In prokaryotic communities, aboveground tissues were dominated by Sphingomonas and Methylobacterium while belowground samples were dominated by Bradyrhizobium and Sphingomonas. Aboveground fungal communities were dominated by Davidiella across all management systems, while belowground samples were dominated by Fusarium and Mortierella. Specific taxa including potential plant beneficials such as Mortierella were indicator species of the conventional and organic management systems. No-till management increased the abundance of groups known to contain plant beneficial organisms such as Bradyrhizobium and Glomeromycotina. Network analyses show different highly connected hub taxa were present in each management system. Overall, this research demonstrates how specific long-term cropping management systems alter microbial communities and how those communities change throughout the growth of soybean.

Dataset Information

Parameterization-induced uncertainties and impacts of crop management harmonization in a global gridded crop model ensemble.

Publications

Parameterization-induced uncertainties and impacts of crop management harmonization in a global gridded crop model ensemble.

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