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Clinical Examination for the Prediction of Mortality in the Critically Ill: The Simple Intensive Care Studies-I.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVES:Caregivers use clinical examination to timely recognize deterioration of a patient, yet data on the prognostic value of clinical examination are inconsistent. In the Simple Intensive Care Studies-I, we evaluated the association of clinical examination findings with 90-day mortality in critically ill patients. DESIGN:Prospective single-center cohort study. SETTING:ICU of a single tertiary care level hospital between March 27, 2015, and July 22, 2017. PATIENTS:All consecutive adults acutely admitted to the ICU and expected to stay for at least 24 hours. INTERVENTIONS:A protocolized clinical examination of 19 clinical signs conducted within 24 hours of admission. MEASUREMENTS MAIN RESULTS:Independent predictors of 90-day mortality were identified using multivariable logistic regression analyses. Model performance was compared with established prognostic risk scores using area under the receiver operating characteristic curves. Robustness of our findings was tested by internal bootstrap validation and adjustment of the threshold for statistical significance. A total of 1,075 patients were included, of whom 298 patients (28%) had died at 90-day follow-up. Multivariable analyses adjusted for age and norepinephrine infusion rate demonstrated that the combination of higher respiratory rate, higher systolic blood pressure, lower central temperature, altered consciousness, and decreased urine output was independently associated with 90-day mortality (area under the receiver operating characteristic curves = 0.74; 95% CI, 0.71-0.78). Clinical examination had a similar discriminative value as compared with the Simplified Acute Physiology Score-II (area under the receiver operating characteristic curves = 0.76; 95% CI, 0.73-0.79; p = 0.29) and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation-IV (using area under the receiver operating characteristic curves = 0.77; 95% CI, 0.74-0.80; p = 0.16) and was significantly better than the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (using area under the receiver operating characteristic curves = 0.67; 95% CI, 0.64-0.71; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS:Clinical examination has reasonable discriminative value for assessing 90-day mortality in acutely admitted ICU patients. In our study population, a single, protocolized clinical examination had similar prognostic abilities compared with the Simplified Acute Physiology Score-II and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation-IV and outperformed the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score.

SUBMITTER: Hiemstra B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6750157 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Clinical Examination for the Prediction of Mortality in the Critically Ill: The Simple Intensive Care Studies-I.

Hiemstra Bart B Eck Ruben J RJ Wiersema Renske R Kaufmann Thomas T Koster Geert G Scheeren Thomas W L TWL Snieder Harold H Perner Anders A Pettilä Ville V Wetterslev Jørn J Keus Frederik F van der Horst Iwan C C ICC

Critical care medicine 20191001 10

<h4>Objectives</h4>Caregivers use clinical examination to timely recognize deterioration of a patient, yet data on the prognostic value of clinical examination are inconsistent. In the Simple Intensive Care Studies-I, we evaluated the association of clinical examination findings with 90-day mortality in critically ill patients.<h4>Design</h4>Prospective single-center cohort study.<h4>Setting</h4>ICU of a single tertiary care level hospital between March 27, 2015, and July 22, 2017.<h4>Patients</ ...[more]

PMID: 31356472

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Project description:PurposeIn the Simple Intensive Care Studies-I (SICS-I), we aim to unravel the value of clinical and haemodynamic variables obtained by physical examination and critical care ultrasound (CCUS) that currently guide daily practice in critically ill patients. We intend to (1) measure all available clinical and haemodynamic variables, (2) train novices in obtaining values for advanced variables based on CCUS in the intensive care unit (ICU) and (3) create an infrastructure for a registry with the flexibility of temporarily incorporating specific (haemodynamic) research questions and variables. The overall purpose is to investigate the diagnostic and prognostic value of clinical and haemodynamic variables.ParticipantsThe SICS-I includes all patients acutely admitted to the ICU of a tertiary teaching hospital in the Netherlands with an ICU stay expected to last beyond 24 hours. Inclusion started on 27 March 2015.Findings to dateOn 31 December 2016, 791 eligible patients fulfilled our inclusion criteria of whom 704 were included. So far 11 substudies with additional variables have been designed, of which six were feasible to implement in the basic study, and two are planned and awaiting initiation. All researchers received focused training for obtaining specific CCUS images. An independent Core laboratory judged that 632 patients had CCUS images of sufficient quality.Future plansWe intend to optimise the set of variables for assessment of the haemodynamic status of the critically ill patient used for guiding diagnostics, prognosis and interventions. Repeated evaluations of these sets of variables are needed for continuous improvement of the diagnostic and prognostic models. Future plans include: (1) more advanced imaging; (2) repeated clinical and haemodynamic measurements; (3) expansion of the registry to other departments or centres; and (4) exploring possibilities of integration of a randomised clinical trial superimposed on the registry.Study registration numberNCT02912624; Pre-results.

Project description:BackgroundMultiple scoring systems have been developed for both the intensive care unit (ICU) and the emergency department (ED) to risk stratify patients and predict mortality. However, it remains unclear whether the additional data needed to compute ICU scores improves mortality prediction for critically ill patients compared to the simpler ED scores.MethodsWe studied a prospective observational cohort of 227 critically ill patients admitted to the ICU directly from the ED at an academic, tertiary care medical center. We compared Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, APACHE III, Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II, Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS), Prince of Wales Emergency Department Score (PEDS), and a pre-hospital critical illness prediction score developed by Seymour et al. (JAMA 2010, 304(7):747-754). The primary endpoint was 60-day mortality. We compared the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves of the different scores and their calibration using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and visual assessment.ResultsThe ICU scores outperformed the ED scores with higher area under the curve (AUC) values (p = 0.01). There were no differences in discrimination among the ED-based scoring systems (AUC 0.698 to 0.742; p = 0.45) or among the ICU-based scoring systems (AUC 0.779 to 0.799; p = 0.60). With the exception of the Seymour score, the ED-based scoring systems did not discriminate as well as the best-performing ICU-based scoring system, APACHE III (p = 0.005 to 0.01 for comparison of ED scores to APACHE III). The Seymour score had a superior AUC to other ED scores and, despite a lower AUC than all the ICU scores, was not significantly different than APACHE III (p = 0.09). When data from the first 24 h in the ICU was used to calculate the ED scores, the AUC for the ED scores improved numerically, but this improvement was not statistically significant. All scores had acceptable calibration.ConclusionsIn contrast to prior studies of patients based in the emergency department, ICU scores outperformed ED scores in critically ill patients admitted from the emergency department. This difference in performance seemed to be primarily due to the complexity of the scores rather than the time window from which the data was derived.

Project description:ImportanceThe high mortality rate in critically ill elderly patients has led to questioning of the beneficial effect of intensive care unit (ICU) admission and to a variable ICU use among this population.ObjectiveTo determine whether a recommendation for systematic ICU admission in critically ill elderly patients reduces 6-month mortality compared with usual practice.Design, setting, and participantsMulticenter, cluster-randomized clinical trial of 3037 critically ill patients aged 75 years or older, free of cancer, with preserved functional status (Index of Independence in Activities of Daily Living ≥4) and nutritional status (absence of cachexia) who arrived at the emergency department of one of 24 hospitals in France between January 2012 and April 2015 and were followed up until November 2015.InterventionsCenters were randomly assigned either to use a program to promote systematic ICU admission of patients (n=1519 participants) or to follow standard practice (n=1518 participants).Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcome was death at 6 months. Secondary outcomes included ICU admission rate, in-hospital death, functional status, and quality of life (12-Item Short Form Health Survey, ranging from 0 to 100, with higher score representing better self-reported health) at 6 months.ResultsOne patient withdrew consent, leaving 3036 patients included in the trial (median age, 85 [interquartile range, 81-89] years; 1361 [45%] men). Patients in the systematic strategy group had an increased risk of death at 6 months (45% vs 39%; relative risk [RR], 1.16; 95% CI, 1.07-1.26) despite an increased ICU admission rate (61% vs 34%; RR, 1.80; 95% CI, 1.66-1.95). After adjustments for baseline characteristics, patients in the systematic strategy group were more likely to be admitted to an ICU (RR, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.54-1.82) and had a higher risk of in-hospital death (RR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.03-1.33) but had no significant increase in risk of death at 6 months (RR, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.96-1.14). Functional status and physical quality of life at 6 months were not significantly different between groups.Conclusions and relevanceAmong critically ill elderly patients in France, a program to promote systematic ICU admission increased ICU use but did not reduce 6-month mortality. Additional research is needed to understand the decision to admit elderly patients to the ICU.Trial registrationclinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01508819.

Dataset Information

Clinical Examination for the Prediction of Mortality in the Critically Ill: The Simple Intensive Care Studies-I.

Publications

Clinical Examination for the Prediction of Mortality in the Critically Ill: The Simple Intensive Care Studies-I.

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