Dataset Information

Dynamic Empirically Based Model for Understanding Future Trends in US Obesity Prevalence in the Context of Social Influences.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

This study aimed to (1) identify mechanistic model structures that produced quality fit to historic obesity prevalence trends and (2) evaluate the sensitivity of future obesity prevalence to social transmission and nonsocial parameters.

Methods

An age- and gender-structured compartmental model was used to describe transitions between weight status groups. Four model structures with different combinations of social transmission and nonsocial mechanisms were calibrated to match historic time series and assessed for quality of fit. Projections of overall obesity prevalence to 2052 were simulated, and sensitivity analyses were conducted.

Results

The model structure that included only nonsocial mechanisms indicated that the overall obesity prevalence in the United States has already stabilized and will increase little more; however, it underestimated observed obesity prevalence since 2013. If social transmission mechanisms influence obesity, the model estimated continued increases in obesity prevalence, reaching 48.0% to 55.1% by 2050. Obesity prevalence was most sensitive to changes in the adult social transmission parameters, especially among women.

Conclusions

The model projected that US obesity prevalence in the overall population will likely continue to increase for decades. The findings that obesity prevalence was most sensitive to adult parameters can be used to inform conversations about priorities for public health and health care programs and policies.

SUBMITTER: Frerichs L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6756946 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Dynamic Empirically Based Model for Understanding Future Trends in US Obesity Prevalence in the Context of Social Influences.

Frerichs Leah L Araz Ozgur M OM Calancie Larissa L Huang Terry T-K TT Hassmiller Lich Kristen K

Obesity (Silver Spring, Md.) 20190819 10

<h4>Objective</h4>This study aimed to (1) identify mechanistic model structures that produced quality fit to historic obesity prevalence trends and (2) evaluate the sensitivity of future obesity prevalence to social transmission and nonsocial parameters.<h4>Methods</h4>An age- and gender-structured compartmental model was used to describe transitions between weight status groups. Four model structures with different combinations of social transmission and nonsocial mechanisms were calibrated to ...[more]

PMID: 31424169

Similar Datasets

Project description:ObjectivesDespite significant public health emphasis on unintended pregnancy prevention among adolescent girls and young women in Sub-Saharan Africa, there is a gap in understanding how adolescents' own reproductive priorities and the social influences on their decision-making align and compete. We examined the social context of contraceptive decision-making among Kenyan female adolescents.MethodsUsing community-based sampling, we conducted 40 in-depth interviews and 6 focus group discussions among sexually-active or partnered adolescent girls and young women aged 15-19 in the Nyanza region of Kenya. We analyzed the data in Dedoose using an inductive, grounded theory approach, and developed a conceptual model from the data illustrating social influences on adolescent contraceptive decision-making.ResultsParticipants viewed adolescent pregnancy as unacceptable, and described severe social, financial, and health consequences of unintended pregnancy, including abortion under unsafe conditions. Yet, their contraceptive behaviors often did not reflect their desire to delay pregnancy. Contraceptive decision-making was influenced by multiple social factors, centering on the intersecting stigmas of adolescent female sexuality, pregnancy, and contraceptive use, as well as unequal power in sexual relationships. To prioritize pregnancy prevention, adolescents must navigate conflicting social norms and power dynamics, and put their perceived future fertility at risk.ConclusionsContraceptive decision-making among Kenyan female adolescents is strongly influenced by opposing social norms within families, communities, and sexual relationships, which compel them to risk stigma whether they use a contraceptive method or become pregnant as adolescents. These findings put into perspective adolescents' seemingly incongruent pregnancy preferences and contraceptive behaviors. Interventions to address adolescent unintended pregnancy should focus on supporting adolescent decision-making agency, addressing fertility-related contraceptive concerns, and promoting innovative contraceptive access points rather than increasing contraceptive prevalence.

Dataset Information

Dynamic Empirically Based Model for Understanding Future Trends in US Obesity Prevalence in the Context of Social Influences.

Objective

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Dynamic Empirically Based Model for Understanding Future Trends in US Obesity Prevalence in the Context of Social Influences.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure