Exposure to excessive heat and impacts on labour productivity linked to cumulative CO₂ emissions.

ABSTRACT: Cumulative CO₂ emissions are a robust predictor of mean temperature increase. However, many societal impacts are driven by exposure to extreme weather conditions. Here, we show that cumulative emissions can be robustly linked to regional changes of a heat exposure indicator, as well as the resulting socioeconomic impacts associated with labour productivity loss in vulnerable economic sectors. We estimate historical and future increases in heat exposure using simulations from eight Earth System Models. Both the global intensity and spatial pattern of heat exposure evolve linearly with cumulative emissions across scenarios (1% CO₂, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The pattern of heat exposure at a given level of global temperature increase is strongly affected by non-CO₂

SUBMITTER: Chavaillaz Y 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6757059 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature