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Joint Maximum Likelihood of Phylogeny and Ancestral States Is Not Consistent.

ABSTRACT: Maximum likelihood estimation in phylogenetics requires a means of handling unknown ancestral states. Classical maximum likelihood averages over these unknown intermediate states, leading to provably consistent estimation of the topology and continuous model parameters. Recently, a computationally efficient approach has been proposed to jointly maximize over these unknown states and phylogenetic parameters. Although this method of joint maximum likelihood estimation can obtain estimates more quickly, its properties as an estimator are not yet clear. In this article, we show that this method of jointly estimating phylogenetic parameters along with ancestral states is not consistent in general. We find a sizeable region of parameter space that generates data on a four-taxon tree for which this joint method estimates the internal branch length to be exactly zero, even in the limit of infinite-length sequences. More generally, we show that this joint method only estimates branch lengths correctly on a set of measure zero. We show empirically that branch length estimates are systematically biased downward, even for short branches.

SUBMITTER: Shaw DA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6759070 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Joint Maximum Likelihood of Phylogeny and Ancestral States Is Not Consistent.

Shaw David A DA Dinh Vu C VC Matsen Frederick A FA

Molecular biology and evolution 20191001 10

Maximum likelihood estimation in phylogenetics requires a means of handling unknown ancestral states. Classical maximum likelihood averages over these unknown intermediate states, leading to provably consistent estimation of the topology and continuous model parameters. Recently, a computationally efficient approach has been proposed to jointly maximize over these unknown states and phylogenetic parameters. Although this method of joint maximum likelihood estimation can obtain estimates more qui ...[more]

PMID: 31119293

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Project description:Ancestral state reconstruction is a method used to study the evolutionary trajectories of quantitative characters on phylogenies. Although efficient methods for univariate ancestral state reconstruction under a Brownian motion model have been described for at least 25 years, to date no generalization has been described to allow more complex evolutionary models, such as multivariate trait evolution, non-Brownian models, missing data, and within-species variation. Furthermore, even for simple univariate Brownian motion models, most phylogenetic comparative R packages compute ancestral states via inefficient tree rerooting and full tree traversals at each tree node, making ancestral state reconstruction extremely time-consuming for large phylogenies. Here, a computationally efficient method for fast maximum likelihood ancestral state reconstruction of continuous characters is described. The algorithm has linear complexity relative to the number of species and outperforms the fastest existing R implementations by several orders of magnitude. The described algorithm is capable of performing ancestral state reconstruction on a 1,000,000-species phylogeny in fewer than 2 s using a standard laptop, whereas the next fastest R implementation would take several days to complete. The method is generalizable to more complex evolutionary models, such as phylogenetic regression, within-species variation, non-Brownian evolutionary models, and multivariate trait evolution. Because this method enables fast repeated computations on phylogenies of virtually any size, implementation of the described algorithm can drastically alleviate the computational burden of many otherwise prohibitively time-consuming tasks requiring reconstruction of ancestral states, such as phylogenetic imputation of missing data, bootstrapping procedures, Expectation-Maximization algorithms, and Bayesian estimation. The described ancestral state reconstruction algorithm is implemented in the Rphylopars functions anc.recon and phylopars.

Dataset Information

Joint Maximum Likelihood of Phylogeny and Ancestral States Is Not Consistent.

Publications

Joint Maximum Likelihood of Phylogeny and Ancestral States Is Not Consistent.

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