Dataset Information

Estimation of PM2.5 Concentrations in China Using a Spatial Back Propagation Neural Network.

ABSTRACT: Methods for estimating the spatial distribution of PM2.5 concentrations have been developed but have not yet been able to effectively include spatial correlation. We report on the development of a spatial back-propagation neural network (S-BPNN) model designed specifically to make such correlations implicit by incorporating a spatial lag variable (SLV) as a virtual input variable. The S-BPNN fits the nonlinear relationship between ground-based air quality monitoring station measurements of PM2.5, satellite observations of aerosol optical depth, meteorological synoptic conditions data and emissions data that include auxiliary geographical parameters such as land use, normalized difference vegetation index, elevation, and population density. We trained and validated the S-BPNN for both yearly and seasonal mean PM2.5 concentrations. In addition, principal components analysis was employed to reduce the dimensionality of the data and a grid of neural network models was run to optimize the model design. The S-BPNN was cross-validated against an analogous but SLV-free BPNN model using the coefficient of determination (R2) and root mean squared error (RMSE) as statistical measures of goodness of fit. The inclusion of the SLV led to demonstrably superior performance of the S-BPNN over the BPNN with R2 values increasing from 0.80 to 0.89 and with the RMSE decreasing from 8.1 to 5.8??g/m3. The yearly mean PM2.5 concentration in China during the study period was found to be 41.8??g/m3 and the model estimated spatial distribution was found to exceed Level 2 of the China Ambient Air Quality Standards (CAAQS) enacted in 2012 (>35??g/m3) in more than 70% of the Chinese territory. The inclusion of spatial correlation upgrades the performance of conventional BPNN models and provides a more accurate estimation of PM2.5 concentrations for air quality monitoring.

SUBMITTER: Wang W

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6760143 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Estimation of PM2.5 Concentrations in China Using a Spatial Back Propagation Neural Network.

Wang Weilin W Zhao Suli S Jiao Limin L Taylor Michael M Zhang Boen B Xu Gang G Hou Haobo H

Scientific reports 20190924 1

Methods for estimating the spatial distribution of PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations have been developed but have not yet been able to effectively include spatial correlation. We report on the development of a spatial back-propagation neural network (S-BPNN) model designed specifically to make such correlations implicit by incorporating a spatial lag variable (SLV) as a virtual input variable. The S-BPNN fits the nonlinear relationship between ground-based air quality monitoring station measuremen ...[more]

PMID: 31551510

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Project description:Sand production and blockage are common during the drilling and production of horizontal oil and gas wells as a result of formation breakdown. The use of high-pressure rotating jets and annular helical flow is an effective way to enhance horizontal wellbore cleanout. In this paper, we propose the idea of using supercritical CO2 (SC-CO2) as washing fluid in water-sensitive formation. SC-CO2 is manifested to be effective in preventing formation damage and enhancing production rate as drilling fluid, which justifies tis potential in wellbore cleanout. In order to investigate the effectiveness of SC-CO2 helical flow cleanout, we perform the numerical study on the annular flow field, which significantly affects sand cleanout efficiency, of SC-CO2 jets in horizontal wellbore. Based on the field data, the geometry model and mathematical models were built. Then a numerical simulation of the annular helical flow field by SC-CO2 jets was accomplished. The influences of several key parameters were investigated, and SC-CO2 jets were compared to conventional water jets. The results show that flow rate, ambient temperature, jet temperature, and nozzle assemblies play the most important roles on wellbore flow field. Once the difference between ambient temperatures and jet temperatures is kept constant, the wellbore velocity distributions will not change. With increasing lateral nozzle size or decreasing rear/forward nozzle size, suspending ability of SC-CO2 flow improves obviously. A back-propagation artificial neural network (BP-ANN) was successfully employed to match the operation parameters and SC-CO2 flow velocities. A comprehensive model was achieved to optimize the operation parameters according to two strategies: cost-saving strategy and local optimal strategy. This paper can help to understand the distinct characteristics of SC-CO2 flow. And it is the first time that the BP-ANN is introduced to analyze the flow field during wellbore cleanout in horizontal wells.

Project description:BackgroundAccurate estimation of historical PM2.5 (particle matter with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 2.5μm) is critical and essential for environmental health risk assessment.ObjectivesThe aim of this study was to develop a multiple-level stacked ensemble machine learning framework for improving the estimation of the daily ground-level PM2.5 concentrations.MethodsAn innovative deep ensemble machine learning framework (DEML) was developed to estimate the daily PM2.5 concentrations. The framework has a three-stage structure: At the first stage, four base models [gradient boosting machine (GBM), support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), and eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost)] were used to generate a new data set of PM2.5 concentrations for training the next-stage learners. At the second stage, three meta-models [RF, XGBoost, and Generalized Linear Model (GLM)] were used to estimate PM2.5 concentrations using a combination of the original data set and the predictions from the first-stage models. At the third stage, a nonnegative least squares (NNLS) algorithm was employed to obtain the optimal weights for PM2.5 estimation. We took the data from 133 monitoring stations in Italy as an example to implement the DEML to predict daily PM2.5 at each 1km×1km grid cell from 2015 to 2019 across Italy. We evaluated the model performance by performing 10-fold cross-validation (CV) and compared it with five benchmark algorithms [GBM, SVM, RF, XGBoost, and Super Learner (SL)].ResultsThe results revealed that the PM2.5 prediction performance of DEML [coefficients of determination (R2)=0.87 and root mean square error (RMSE)=5.38μg/m3] was superior to any benchmark models (with R2 of 0.51, 0.76, 0.83, 0.70, and 0.83 for GBM, SVM, RF, XGBoost, and SL approach, respectively). DEML displayed reliable performance in capturing the spatiotemporal variations of PM2.5 in Italy.DiscussionThe proposed DEML framework achieved an outstanding performance in PM2.5 estimation, which could be used as a tool for more accurate environmental exposure assessment. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9752.

Dataset Information

Estimation of PM2.5 Concentrations in China Using a Spatial Back Propagation Neural Network.

Publications

Estimation of PM2.5 Concentrations in China Using a Spatial Back Propagation Neural Network.

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