Dataset Information

Prognostic Modeling and Prevention of Diabetes Using Machine Learning Technique.

ABSTRACT: Stratifying individuals at risk for developing diabetes could enable targeted delivery of interventional programs to those at highest risk, while avoiding the effort and costs of prevention and treatment in those at low risk. The objective of this study was to explore the potential role of a Hidden Markov Model (HMM), a machine learning technique, in validating the performance of the Framingham Diabetes Risk Scoring Model (FDRSM), a well-respected prognostic model. Can HMM predict 8-year risk of developing diabetes in an individual effectively? To our knowledge, no study has attempted use of HMM to validate the performance of FDRSM. We used Electronic Medical Record (EMR) data, of 172,168 primary care patients to derive the 8-year risk of developing diabetes in an individual using HMM. The Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AROC) in our study sample of 911 individuals for whom all risk factors and follow up data were available is 86.9% compared to AROCs of 78.6% and 85% reported in a previously conducted validation study of FDRSM in the same Canadian population and the Framingham study respectively. These results demonstrate that the discrimination capability of our proposed HMM is superior to the validation study conducted using the FDRSM in a Canadian population and in the Framingham population. We conclude that HMM is capable of identifying patients at increased risk of developing diabetes within the next 8-years.

SUBMITTER: Perveen S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6760163 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Prognostic Modeling and Prevention of Diabetes Using Machine Learning Technique.

Perveen Sajida S Shahbaz Muhammad M Keshavjee Karim K Guergachi Aziz A

Scientific reports 20190924 1

Stratifying individuals at risk for developing diabetes could enable targeted delivery of interventional programs to those at highest risk, while avoiding the effort and costs of prevention and treatment in those at low risk. The objective of this study was to explore the potential role of a Hidden Markov Model (HMM), a machine learning technique, in validating the performance of the Framingham Diabetes Risk Scoring Model (FDRSM), a well-respected prognostic model. Can HMM predict 8-year risk of ...[more]

PMID: 31551457

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Diabetes Mellitus is an increasingly prevalent chronic disease characterized by the body's inability to metabolize glucose. The objective of this study was to build an effective predictive model with high sensitivity and selectivity to better identify Canadian patients at risk of having Diabetes Mellitus based on patient demographic data and the laboratory results during their visits to medical facilities. METHODS:Using the most recent records of 13,309 Canadian patients aged between 18 and 90 years, along with their laboratory information (age, sex, fasting blood glucose, body mass index, high-density lipoprotein, triglycerides, blood pressure, and low-density lipoprotein), we built predictive models using Logistic Regression and Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) techniques. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AROC) was used to evaluate the discriminatory capability of these models. We used the adjusted threshold method and the class weight method to improve sensitivity - the proportion of Diabetes Mellitus patients correctly predicted by the model. We also compared these models to other learning machine techniques such as Decision Tree and Random Forest. RESULTS:The AROC for the proposed GBM model is 84.7% with a sensitivity of 71.6% and the AROC for the proposed Logistic Regression model is 84.0% with a sensitivity of 73.4%. The GBM and Logistic Regression models perform better than the Random Forest and Decision Tree models. CONCLUSIONS:The ability of our model to predict patients with Diabetes using some commonly used lab results is high with satisfactory sensitivity. These models can be built into an online computer program to help physicians in predicting patients with future occurrence of diabetes and providing necessary preventive interventions. The model is developed and validated on the Canadian population which is more specific and powerful to apply on Canadian patients than existing models developed from US or other populations. Fasting blood glucose, body mass index, high-density lipoprotein, and triglycerides were the most important predictors in these models.

Project description:Objective:To find new immune-related prognostic markers for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Methods:We found GSE14814 is related to NSCLC in GEO database. The non-small cell lung cancer observation (NSCLC-OBS) group was evaluated for immunity and divided into high and low groups for differential gene screening according to the score of immune evaluation. A single factor COX regression analysis was performed to select the genes related to prognosis. A prognostic model was constructed by machine learning, and test whether the model has a test efficacy for prognosis. A chip-in-chip non-small cell lung cancer chemotherapy (NSCLC-ACT) sample was used as a validation dataset for the same validation and prognostic analysis of the model. The coexpression genes of hub genes were obtained by pearson analysis and gene enrichment, function enrichment and protein interaction analysis. The tumor samples of patients with different clinical stages were detected by immunohistochemistry and the expression difference of prognostic genes in tumor tissues of patients with different stages was compared. Results:By screening, we found that LYN, C3, COPG2IT1, HLA.DQA1, and TNFRSF17 is closely related to prognosis. After machine learning, we constructed the immune prognosis model from these 5 genes, and the model AUC values were greater than 0.9 at three time periods of 1, 3, and 5 years; the total survival period of the low-risk group was significantly better than that of the high-risk group. The results of prognosis analysis in ACT samples were consistent with OBS groups. The coexpression genes are mainly involved B cell receptor signaling pathway and are mainly enriched in apoptotic cell clearance. Prognostic key genes are highly correlated with PDCD1, PDCD1LG2, LAG3, and CTLA4 immune checkpoints. The immunohistochemical results showed that the expression of COPG2IT1 and HLA.DQA1 in stage III increased significantly and the expression of LYN, C3, and TNFRSF17 in stage III decreased significantly compared with that of stage I. The experimental results are consistent with the previous analysis. Conclusion:LYN, C3, COPG2IT1, LA.DQA1, and NFRSF17 may be new immune markers to judge the prognosis of patients with non-small cell lung cancer.

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Dataset Information

Prognostic Modeling and Prevention of Diabetes Using Machine Learning Technique.

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Prognostic Modeling and Prevention of Diabetes Using Machine Learning Technique.

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