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Early prediction of noninvasive ventilation failure in COPD patients: derivation, internal validation, and external validation of a simple risk score.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Early identification of noninvasive ventilation (NIV) failure is a promising strategy for reducing mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients. However, a risk-scoring system is lacking. METHODS:To develop a scale to predict NIV failure, 500 COPD patients were enrolled in a derivation cohort. Heart rate, acidosis (assessed by pH), consciousness (assessed by Glasgow coma score), oxygenation, and respiratory rate (HACOR) were entered into the scoring system. Another two groups of 323 and 395 patients were enrolled to internally and externally validate the scale, respectively. NIV failure was defined as intubation or death during NIV. RESULTS:Using HACOR score collected at 1-2 h of NIV to predict NIV failure, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) was 0.90, 0.89, and 0.71 for the derivation, internal-validation, and external-validation cohorts, respectively. For the prediction of early NIV failure in these three cohorts, the AUC was 0.91, 0.96, and 0.83, respectively. In all patients with HACOR score >?5, the NIV failure rate was 50.2%. In these patients, early intubation (

SUBMITTER: Duan J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6766459 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Early prediction of noninvasive ventilation failure in COPD patients: derivation, internal validation, and external validation of a simple risk score.

Duan Jun J Wang Shengyu S Liu Ping P Han Xiaoli X Tian Yao Y Gao Fan F Zhou Jing J Mou Junhuan J Qin Qian Q Yu Jingrong J Bai Linfu L Zhou Lintong L Zhang Rui R

Annals of intensive care 20190930 1

<h4>Background</h4>Early identification of noninvasive ventilation (NIV) failure is a promising strategy for reducing mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients. However, a risk-scoring system is lacking.<h4>Methods</h4>To develop a scale to predict NIV failure, 500 COPD patients were enrolled in a derivation cohort. Heart rate, acidosis (assessed by pH), consciousness (assessed by Glasgow coma score), oxygenation, and respiratory rate (HACOR) were entered into the scorin ...[more]

PMID: 31565779

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Project description:AbstractAs severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 continues to spread, easy-to-use risk models that predict hospital mortality can assist in clinical decision making and triage. We aimed to develop a risk score model for in-hospital mortality in patients hospitalized with 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) that was robust across hospitals and used clinical factors that are readily available and measured standardly across hospitals.In this retrospective observational study, we developed a risk score model using data collected by trained abstractors for patients in 20 diverse hospitals across the state of Michigan (Mi-COVID19) who were discharged between March 5, 2020 and August 14, 2020. Patients who tested positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 during hospitalization or were discharged with an ICD-10 code for COVID-19 (U07.1) were included. We employed an iterative forward selection approach to consider the inclusion of 145 potential risk factors available at hospital presentation. Model performance was externally validated with patients from 19 hospitals in the Mi-COVID19 registry not used in model development. We shared the model in an easy-to-use online application that allows the user to predict in-hospital mortality risk for a patient if they have any subset of the variables in the final model.Two thousand one hundred and ninety-three patients in the Mi-COVID19 registry met our inclusion criteria. The derivation and validation sets ultimately included 1690 and 398 patients, respectively, with mortality rates of 19.6% and 18.6%, respectively. The average age of participants in the study after exclusions was 64 years old, and the participants were 48% female, 49% Black, and 87% non-Hispanic. Our final model includes the patient's age, first recorded respiratory rate, first recorded pulse oximetry, highest creatinine level on day of presentation, and hospital's COVID-19 mortality rate. No other factors showed sufficient incremental model improvement to warrant inclusion. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve for the derivation and validation sets were .796 (95% confidence interval, .767-.826) and .829 (95% confidence interval, .782-.876) respectively.We conclude that the risk of in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients can be reliably estimated using a few factors, which are standardly measured and available to physicians very early in a hospital encounter.

Project description:ImportanceAcute kidney injury (AKI) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality in hospitalized patients. Current methods to identify patients at high risk of AKI are limited, and few prediction models have been externally validated.ObjectiveTo internally and externally validate a machine learning risk score to detect AKI in hospitalized patients.Design, setting, and participantsThis diagnostic study included 495 971 adult hospital admissions at the University of Chicago (UC) from 2008 to 2016 (n = 48 463), at Loyola University Medical Center (LUMC) from 2007 to 2017 (n = 200 613), and at NorthShore University Health System (NUS) from 2006 to 2016 (n = 246 895) with serum creatinine (SCr) measurements. Patients with an SCr concentration at admission greater than 3.0 mg/dL, with a prior diagnostic code for chronic kidney disease stage 4 or higher, or who received kidney replacement therapy within 48 hours of admission were excluded. A simplified version of a previously published gradient boosted machine AKI prediction algorithm was used; it was validated internally among patients at UC and externally among patients at NUS and LUMC.Main outcomes and measuresPrediction of Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes SCr-defined stage 2 AKI within a 48-hour interval was the primary outcome. Discrimination was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).ResultsThe study included 495 971 adult admissions (mean [SD] age, 63 [18] years; 87 689 [17.7%] African American; and 266 866 [53.8%] women) across 3 health systems. The development of stage 2 or higher AKI occurred in 15 664 of 48 463 patients (3.4%) in the UC cohort, 5711 of 200 613 (2.8%) in the LUMC cohort, and 3499 of 246 895 (1.4%) in the NUS cohort. In the UC cohort, 332 patients (0.7%) required kidney replacement therapy compared with 672 patients (0.3%) in the LUMC cohort and 440 patients (0.2%) in the NUS cohort. The AUCs for predicting at least stage 2 AKI in the next 48 hours were 0.86 (95% CI, 0.86-0.86) in the UC cohort, 0.85 (95% CI, 0.84-0.85) in the LUMC cohort, and 0.86 (95% CI, 0.86-0.86) in the NUS cohort. The AUCs for receipt of kidney replacement therapy within 48 hours were 0.96 (95% CI, 0.96-0.96) in the UC cohort, 0.95 (95% CI, 0.94-0.95) in the LUMC cohort, and 0.95 (95% CI, 0.94-0.95) in the NUS cohort. In time-to-event analysis, a probability cutoff of at least 0.057 predicted the onset of stage 2 AKI a median (IQR) of 27 (6.5-93) hours before the eventual doubling in SCr concentrations in the UC cohort, 34.5 (19-85) hours in the NUS cohort, and 39 (19-108) hours in the LUMC cohort.Conclusions and relevanceIn this study, the machine learning algorithm demonstrated excellent discrimination in both internal and external validation, supporting its generalizability and potential as a clinical decision support tool to improve AKI detection and outcomes.

Project description:BackgroundHeart rate, acidosis, consciousness, oxygenation, and respiratory rate (HACOR) have been used to predict noninvasive ventilation (NIV) failure. However, the HACOR score fails to consider baseline data. Here, we aimed to update the HACOR score to take into account baseline data and test its predictive power for NIV failure primarily after 1-2 h of NIV.MethodsA multicenter prospective observational study was performed in 18 hospitals in China and Turkey. Patients who received NIV because of hypoxemic respiratory failure were enrolled. In Chongqing, China, 1451 patients were enrolled in the training cohort. Outside of Chongqing, another 728 patients were enrolled in the external validation cohort.ResultsBefore NIV, the presence of pneumonia, cardiogenic pulmonary edema, pulmonary ARDS, immunosuppression, or septic shock and the SOFA score were strongly associated with NIV failure. These six variables as baseline data were added to the original HACOR score. The AUCs for predicting NIV failure were 0.85 (95% CI 0.84-0.87) and 0.78 (0.75-0.81) tested with the updated HACOR score assessed after 1-2 h of NIV in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. A higher AUC was observed when it was tested with the updated HACOR score compared to the original HACOR score in the training cohort (0.85 vs. 0.80, 0.86 vs. 0.81, and 0.85 vs. 0.82 after 1-2, 12, and 24 h of NIV, respectively; all p values < 0.01). Similar results were found in the validation cohort (0.78 vs. 0.71, 0.79 vs. 0.74, and 0.81 vs. 0.76, respectively; all p values < 0.01). When 7, 10.5, and 14 points of the updated HACOR score were used as cutoff values, the probability of NIV failure was 25%, 50%, and 75%, respectively. Among patients with updated HACOR scores of ≤ 7, 7.5-10.5, 11-14, and > 14 after 1-2 h of NIV, the rate of NIV failure was 12.4%, 38.2%, 67.1%, and 83.7%, respectively.ConclusionsThe updated HACOR score has high predictive power for NIV failure in patients with hypoxemic respiratory failure. It can be used to help in decision-making when NIV is used.

Project description:BackgroundRheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients have increased risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Accurate CVD risk prediction could improve care for RA patients. Our goal is to develop and validate a biomarker-based model for predicting CVD risk in RA patients.MethodsMedicare claims data were linked to multi-biomarker disease activity (MBDA) test results to create an RA patient cohort with age ??40?years that was split 2:1 for training and internal validation. Clinical and RA-related variables, MBDA score, and its 12 biomarkers were evaluated as predictors of a composite CVD outcome: myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, or fatal CVD within 3?years. Model building used Cox proportional hazard regression with backward elimination. The final MBDA-based CVD risk score was internally validated and compared to four clinical CVD risk prediction models.Results30,751 RA patients (904 CVD events) were analyzed. Covariates in the final MBDA-based CVD risk score were age, diabetes, hypertension, tobacco use, history of CVD (excluding MI/stroke), MBDA score, leptin, MMP-3 and TNF-R1. In internal validation, the MBDA-based CVD risk score was a strong predictor of 3-year risk for a CVD event, with hazard ratio (95% CI) of 2.89 (2.46-3.41). The predicted 3-year CVD risk was low for 9.4% of patients, borderline for 10.2%, intermediate for 52.2%, and high for 28.2%. Model fit was good, with mean predicted versus observed 3-year CVD risks of 4.5% versus 4.4%. The MBDA-based CVD risk score significantly improved risk discrimination by the likelihood ratio test, compared to four clinical models. The risk score also improved prediction, reclassifying 42% of patients versus the simplest clinical model (age + sex), with a net reclassification index (NRI) (95% CI) of 0.19 (0.10-0.27); and 28% of patients versus the most comprehensive clinical model (age + sex + diabetes + hypertension + tobacco use + history of CVD + CRP), with an NRI of 0.07 (0.001-0.13). C-index was 0.715 versus 0.661 to 0.696 for the four clinical models.ConclusionA prognostic score has been developed to predict 3-year CVD risk for RA patients by using clinical data, three serum biomarkers and the MBDA score. In internal validation, it had good accuracy and outperformed clinical models with and without CRP. The MBDA-based CVD risk prediction score may improve RA patient care by offering a risk stratification tool that incorporates the effect of RA inflammation.

Dataset Information

Early prediction of noninvasive ventilation failure in COPD patients: derivation, internal validation, and external validation of a simple risk score.

Publications

Early prediction of noninvasive ventilation failure in COPD patients: derivation, internal validation, and external validation of a simple risk score.

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