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An evaluation of WHO emergency guidelines for Zika virus disease.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:In the face of an unclear causal association between Zika virus in utero exposure and congenital abnormalities and urgent demand for guidance, the World Health Organization (WHO) had to produce timely and trustworthy guidelines during the 2016 Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). METHODS:This is a cross-sectional evaluation of WHO emergency guidelines produced during the Zika virus disease PHEIC from 1 February to 18 November 2016. We assessed adherence to WHO publication requirements and the reporting of guideline development processes associated with trustworthiness. In the absence of quality appraisal tools for guidelines developed under compressed timeframes, we applied the Appraisal of Guidelines for Research and Evaluation (AGREE II) tool. RESULTS:We included 21 guidelines (13 de novo and 8 updates). Six guidelines used a formal evidence review process. Most guidelines involved external experts in the development process and collected declarations of interest. Peer review was reported in six documents. Most emergency guidelines included updating plans. The highest scoring AGREE II domain was clarity of presentation (median score 78%); the lowest scoring domain was applicability (median score 18%). CONCLUSION:WHO developed moderate- to high-quality emergency guidelines in the challenging context of a PHEIC. We found improvement opportunities for WHO guideline development teams in the use of evidence to formulate recommendations, the collection of declarations of interest, reporting of conflicts of interest, and the use of existing WHO organizational quality assurance processes.

SUBMITTER: Norris SL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6771472 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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An evaluation of WHO emergency guidelines for Zika virus disease.

Norris Susan L SL Louis Henry H Sawin Veronica I VI Porgo Teegwendé V TV Lau Yuk Hei Agnes YHA Wang Qi Q Ferri Mauricio M

Journal of evidence-based medicine 20190618 3

<h4>Background</h4>In the face of an unclear causal association between Zika virus in utero exposure and congenital abnormalities and urgent demand for guidance, the World Health Organization (WHO) had to produce timely and trustworthy guidelines during the 2016 Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC).<h4>Methods</h4>This is a cross-sectional evaluation of WHO emergency guidelines produced during the Zika virus disease PHEIC from 1 February to 18 November 2016. We assessed adher ...[more]

PMID: 31215148

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Project description:INTRODUCTION:Epidemic forecasting and prediction tools have the potential to provide actionable information in the midst of emerging epidemics. While numerous predictive studies were published during the 2016-2017 Zika Virus (ZIKV) pandemic, it remains unknown how timely, reproducible, and actionable the information produced by these studies was. METHODS:To improve the functional use of mathematical modeling in support of future infectious disease outbreaks, we conducted a systematic review of all ZIKV prediction studies published during the recent ZIKV pandemic using the PRISMA guidelines. Using MEDLINE, EMBASE, and grey literature review, we identified studies that forecasted, predicted, or simulated ecological or epidemiological phenomena related to the Zika pandemic that were published as of March 01, 2017. Eligible studies underwent evaluation of objectives, data sources, methods, timeliness, reproducibility, accessibility, and clarity by independent reviewers. RESULTS:2034 studies were identified, of which n = 73 met the eligibility criteria. Spatial spread, R0 (basic reproductive number), and epidemic dynamics were most commonly predicted, with few studies predicting Guillain-Barré Syndrome burden (4%), sexual transmission risk (4%), and intervention impact (4%). Most studies specifically examined populations in the Americas (52%), with few African-specific studies (4%). Case count (67%), vector (41%), and demographic data (37%) were the most common data sources. Real-time internet data and pathogen genomic information were used in 7% and 0% of studies, respectively, and social science and behavioral data were typically absent in modeling efforts. Deterministic models were favored over stochastic approaches. Forty percent of studies made model data entirely available, 29% provided all relevant model code, 43% presented uncertainty in all predictions, and 54% provided sufficient methodological detail to allow complete reproducibility. Fifty-one percent of predictions were published after the epidemic peak in the Americas. While the use of preprints improved the accessibility of ZIKV predictions by a median of 119 days sooner than journal publication dates, they were used in only 30% of studies. CONCLUSIONS:Many ZIKV predictions were published during the 2016-2017 pandemic. The accessibility, reproducibility, timeliness, and incorporation of uncertainty in these published predictions varied and indicates there is substantial room for improvement. To enhance the utility of analytical tools for outbreak response it is essential to improve the sharing of model data, code, and preprints for future outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics.

Dataset Information

An evaluation of WHO emergency guidelines for Zika virus disease.

Publications

An evaluation of WHO emergency guidelines for Zika virus disease.

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