Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision to Prevent HIV: Modelling Age Prioritization in Namibia.
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SUBMITTER: Stegman P
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6773676 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Sep
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision to Prevent HIV: Modelling Age Prioritization in Namibia.
Stegman Peter P Stirling Bridget B Corner Brad B Schnure Melissa M Mali Denis D Shihepo Ella E Kripke Katharine K Njeuhmeli Emmanuel E
AIDS and behavior 20190901 Suppl 2
Voluntary Medical Male circumcision (VMMC) has been part of prevention in Namibia since 2009. Yet, as of 2013, VMMC coverage among 15- to 24-year-olds was estimated at less than 22%. Program data suggests uptake of VMMC below age 15 is lower than expected, given the age distribution of the eligible population. Nearly 85% of VMMCs were for males between ages 15 and 29, while boys 10-14 years were referred outside the program. This analysis uses the Decision Makers Program Planning Tool to underst ...[more]
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Project description:BackgroundVoluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) for HIV prevention has been a priority for Swaziland since 2009. Initially focusing on men ages 15-49, the Ministry of Health reduced the minimum age for VMMC from 15 to 10 years in 2012, given the existing demand among 10- to 15-year-olds. To understand the implications of focusing VMMC service delivery on specific age groups, the MOH undertook a modeling exercise to inform policy and implementation in 2013-2014.Methods and findingsThe impact and cost of circumcising specific age groups were assessed using the Decision Makers' Program Planning Tool, Version 2.0 (DMPPT 2.0), a simple compartmental model. We used age-specific HIV incidence from the Swaziland HIV Incidence Measurement Survey (SHIMS). Population, mortality, births, and HIV prevalence were imported from a national Spectrum/Goals model recently updated in consultation with country stakeholders. Baseline male circumcision prevalence was derived from the most recent Swaziland Demographic and Health Survey. The lowest numbers of VMMCs per HIV infection averted are achieved when males ages 15-19, 20-24, 25-29, and 30-34 are circumcised, although the uncertainty bounds for the estimates overlap. Circumcising males ages 25-29 and 20-24 provides the most immediate reduction in HIV incidence. Circumcising males ages 15-19, 20-24, and 25-29 provides the greatest magnitude incidence reduction within 15 years. The lowest cost per HIV infection averted is achieved by circumcising males ages 15-34: $870 U.S. dollars (USD).ConclusionsThe potential impact, cost, and cost-effectiveness of VMMC scale-up in Swaziland are not uniform. They vary by the age group of males circumcised. Based on the results of this modeling exercise, the Ministry of Health's Swaziland Male Circumcision Strategic and Operational Plan 2014-2018 adopted an implementation strategy that calls for circumcision to be scaled up to 50% coverage for neonates, 80% among males ages 10-29, and 55% among males ages 30-34.
| S-EPMC4943626 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) program in Mozambique aimed to increase male circumcision (MC) coverage to 80 percent among males ages 10 to 49 by 2018. Given the difficulty in attracting adult men over age 20 for circumcision, Mozambique became interested in assessing its age-targeting strategy and progress at the provincial level to inform program planning.MethodsWe examined the impact and cost-effectiveness of circumcising different age groups of men using the Decision Makers' Program Planning Toolkit, Version 2.1 (DMPPT 2). We also applied the model to assess the scale-up efforts through the end of September 2017 and project their impact on HIV incidence through 2030. The DMPPT 2 is a compartmental Excel-based model that analyzes the effects of age at circumcision on program impact and cost-effectiveness. The model tracks changes in age-specific MC coverage due to VMMC program circumcisions. Baseline MC prevalence was based on data from the 2011 Demographic and Health Survey. The DMPPT 2 was populated with HIV incidence projections from Spectrum/Goals under an assumption that Mozambique would reach its national targets for HIV treatment and prevention by 2022.ResultsWe estimate the VMMC program increased MC coverage among males ages 10 to 49 from 27 percent in 2009 to 48 percent by end of September 2017. Coverage increased primarily in males ages 10 to 29. VMMCs conducted in the national program through the end of September 2017 are projected to avert 67,076 HIV infections from 2010 to 2030. Scaling up circumcisions in males ages 20 to 29 will have the most immediate impact on HIV incidence, while the greatest impact over a 15-year period is obtained by circumcising males ages 15 to 24 in the majority of priority provinces. Circumcising 80 percent of males ages 10 to 29 can achieve 77 percent of the impact through 2030 compared with circumcising 80 percent of males ages 10 to 49.ConclusionThe VMMC program in Mozambique has made great strides in increasing MC coverage, particularly for males ages 10 to 29. Scaling up and maintaining MC coverage in this age group offers an attainable and cost-effective target for VMMC in Mozambique.
| S-EPMC6386365 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundCountries in sub-Saharan Africa are scaling-up voluntary male medical circumcision (VMMC) as an HIV intervention. Emerging challenges in these programs call for increased focus on program efficiency (optimizing program impact while minimizing cost). A novel analytic approach was developed to determine how subpopulation prioritization can increase program efficiency using an illustrative application for Zambia.Methods and findingsA population-level mathematical model was constructed describing the heterosexual HIV epidemic and impact of VMMC programs (age-structured mathematical (ASM) model). The model stratified the population according to sex, circumcision status, age group, sexual-risk behavior, HIV status, and stage of infection. A three-level conceptual framework was also developed to determine maximum epidemic impact and program efficiency through subpopulation prioritization, based on age, geography, and risk profile. In the baseline scenario, achieving 80% VMMC coverage by 2017 among males 15-49 year old, 12 VMMCs were needed per HIV infection averted (effectiveness). The cost per infection averted (cost-effectiveness) was USD $1,089 and 306,000 infections were averted. Through age-group prioritization, effectiveness ranged from 11 (20-24 age-group) to 36 (45-49 age-group); cost-effectiveness ranged from $888 (20-24 age-group) to $3,300 (45-49 age-group). Circumcising 10-14, 15-19, or 20-24 year old achieved the largest incidence rate reduction; prioritizing 15-24, 15-29, or 15-34 year old achieved the greatest program efficiency. Through geographic prioritization, effectiveness ranged from 9-12. Prioritizing Lusaka achieved the highest effectiveness. Through risk-group prioritization, prioritizing the highest risk group achieved the highest effectiveness, with only one VMMC needed per infection averted; the lowest risk group required 80 times more VMMCs.ConclusionEpidemic impact and efficiency of VMMC programs can be improved by prioritizing young males (sexually active or just before sexual debut), geographic areas with higher HIV prevalence than the national, and high sexual-risk groups.
| S-EPMC4696770 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionMonitoring clinical safety of voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) is critical to minimize risk as VMMC programs for HIV prevention are scaled. This cross-sectional analysis describes the adverse event (AE) profile of a large-scale, routine VMMC program and identifies factors associated with the development, severity, and timing of AEs to provide recommendations for program quality improvement.Materials and methodsFrom 2015-2018 there were 28,990 circumcisions performed in International Training and Education Center for Health (I-TECH) supported regions of Namibia in collaboration with the Ministry of Health and Social Services. Two routine follow-up visits after VMMC were scheduled to identify clients with AEs. Summary statistics were used to describe characteristics of all VMMC clients and the subset who experienced an AE. We used chi-square tests to evaluate associations between AE timing, patient age, and other patient and AE characteristics. We used a logistic regression model to explore associations between patient characteristics and AE severity.ResultsOf the 498 clients with AEs (AE rate of 1.7%), 40 (8%) occurred ≤2 days, 262 (53%) occurred 3-7 days, 161 (32%) between day 8 and 14, and 35 (7%) were ≥15 days post-VMMC. Early AEs (on or before day 2) tended to be severe and categorized as bleeding, while infections were the most common AEs occurring later (p<0.001). Younger clients (aged 10-14 years) experienced more infections, whereas older clients experienced more bleeding (p<0.001).ConclusionsAlmost 40% of AEs occurred after the second follow-up visit, of which 179 (91%) were infections. Improvements in pre-surgical and post-surgical counselling and post-operative educational materials encouraging clients to seek care at any time, adoption of alternative follow-up methods, and the addition of a third follow-up visit may improve outcomes for patients. Enhancing post-surgical counselling and emphasizing wound care for younger VMMC clients and their caregivers could help mitigate elevated risk of infection.
| S-EPMC8528325 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe epidemiological and programmatic implications of inclusivity of HIV-positive males in voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) programs are uncertain. We modeled these implications using Zambia as an illustrative example.Methods and findingsWe used the Age-Structured Mathematical (ASM) model to evaluate, over an intermediate horizon (2010-2025), the effectiveness (number of VMMCs needed to avert one HIV infection) of VMMC scale-up scenarios with varying proportions of HIV-positive males. The model was calibrated by fitting to HIV prevalence time trend data from 1990 to 2014. We assumed that inclusivity of HIV positive males may benefit VMMC programs by increasing VMMC uptake among higher risk males, or by circumcision reducing HIV male-to-female transmission risk. All analyses were generated assuming no further antiretroviral therapy (ART) scale-up. The number of VMMCs needed to avert one HIV infection was projected to increase from 12.2 VMMCs per HIV infection averted, in a program that circumcises only HIV-negative males, to 14.0, in a program that includes HIV-positive males. The proportion of HIV-positive males was based on their representation in the population (e.g. 12.6% of those circumcised in 2010 would be HIV-positive based on HIV prevalence among males of 12.6% in 2010). However, if a program that only reaches out to HIV-negative males is associated with 20% lower uptake among higher-risk males, the effectiveness would be 13.2 VMMCs per infection averted. If improved inclusivity of HIV-positive males is associated with 20% higher uptake among higher-risk males, the effectiveness would be 12.4. As the assumed VMMC efficacy against male-to-female HIV transmission was increased from 0% to 20% and 46%, the effectiveness of circumcising regardless of HIV status improved from 14.0 to 11.5 and 9.1, respectively. The reduction in the HIV incidence rate among females increased accordingly, from 24.7% to 34.8% and 50.4%, respectively.ConclusionImproving inclusivity of males in VMMC programs regardless of HIV status increases VMMC effectiveness, if there is moderate increase in VMMC uptake among higher-risk males and/or if there is moderate efficacy for VMMC against male-to-female transmission. In these circumstances, VMMC programs can reduce the HIV incidence rate in males by nearly as much as expected by some ART programs, and additionally, females can benefit from the intervention nearly as much as males.
| S-EPMC5261810 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Kenya is 1 of 14 priority countries in Africa scaling up voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) for HIV prevention following the recommendations of the World Health Organization and the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS. To inform VMMC target setting, we modeled the impact of circumcising specific client age groups across several Kenyan geographic areas. METHODS:The Decision Makers' Program Planning Tool, Version 2 (DMPPT 2) was applied in Kisumu, Siaya, Homa Bay, and Migori counties. Initial modeling done in mid-2016 showed coverage estimates above 100% in age groups and geographic areas where demand for VMMC continued to be high. On the basis of information obtained from country policy makers and VMMC program implementers, we adjusted circumcision coverage for duplicate reporting, county-level population estimates, migration across county boundaries for VMMC services, and replacement of traditional circumcision with circumcisions in the VMMC program. To address residual inflated coverage following these adjustments we applied county-specific correction factors computed by triangulating model results with coverage estimates from population surveys. RESULTS:A program record review identified duplicate reporting in Homa Bay, Kisumu, and Siaya. Using county population estimates from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, we found that adjusting for migration and correcting for replacement of traditional circumcision with VMMC led to lower estimates of 2016 male circumcision coverage especially for Kisumu, Migori, and Siaya. Even after addressing these issues, overestimation of 2016 male circumcision coverage persisted, especially in Homa Bay. We estimated male circumcision coverage in 2016 by applying correction factors. Modeled estimates for 2016 circumcision coverage for the 10- to 14-year age group ranged from 50% in Homa Bay to approximately 90% in Kisumu. Results for the 15- to 19-year age group suggest almost complete coverage in Kisumu, Migori, and Siaya. Coverage for the 20- to 24-year age group ranged from about 80% in Siaya to about 90% in Homa Bay, coverage for those aged 25-29 years ranged from about 60% in Siaya to 80% in Migori, and coverage in those aged 30-34 years ranged from about 50% in Siaya to about 70% in Migori. CONCLUSIONS:Our analysis points to solutions for some of the data issues encountered in Kenya. Kenya is the first country in which these data issues have been encountered because baseline circumcision rates were high. We anticipate that some of the modeling methods we developed for Kenya will be applicable in other countries.
| S-EPMC6298728 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThere is strong evidence showing that voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) reduces HIV incidence in men. To inform the VMMC policies and goals of 13 priority countries in eastern and southern Africa, we estimate the impact and cost of scaling up adult VMMC using updated, country-specific data.Methods and findingsWe use the Decision Makers' Program Planning Tool (DMPPT) to model the impact and cost of scaling up adult VMMC in Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Rwanda, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Nyanza Province in Kenya. We use epidemiologic and demographic data from recent household surveys for each country. The cost of VMMC ranges from US$65.85 to US$95.15 per VMMC performed, based on a cost assessment of VMMC services aligned with the World Health Organization's considerations of models for optimizing volume and efficiencies. Results from the DMPPT models suggest that scaling up adult VMMC to reach 80% coverage in the 13 countries by 2015 would entail performing 20.34 million circumcisions between 2011 and 2015 and an additional 8.42 million between 2016 and 2025 (to maintain the 80% coverage). Such a scale-up would result in averting 3.36 million new HIV infections through 2025. In addition, while the model shows that this scale-up would cost a total of US$2 billion between 2011 and 2025, it would result in net savings (due to averted treatment and care costs) amounting to US$16.51 billion.ConclusionsThis study suggests that rapid scale-up of VMMC in eastern and southern Africa is warranted based on the likely impact on the region's HIV epidemics and net savings. Scaling up of safe VMMC in eastern and southern Africa will lead to a substantial reduction in HIV infections in the countries and lower health system costs through averted HIV care costs.
| S-EPMC3226464 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Given compelling evidence associating voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) with men's reduced HIV acquisition through heterosexual intercourse, South Africa in 2010 began scaling up VMMC. To project the resources needed to complete 4.3 million circumcisions between 2010 and 2016, we (1) estimated the unit cost to provide VMMC; (2) assessed cost drivers and cost variances across eight provinces and VMMC service delivery modes; and (3) evaluated the costs associated with mobilize and motivate men and boys to access VMMC services. Cost data were systematically collected and analyzed using a provider's perspective from 33 Government and PEPFAR-supported (U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief) urban, rural, and peri-urban VMMC facilities. The cost per circumcision performed in 2014 was US$132 (R1,431): higher in public hospitals (US$158 [R1,710]) than in health centers and clinics (US$121 [R1,309]). There was no substantial difference between the cost at fixed circumcision sites and fixed sites that also offer outreach services. Direct labor costs could be reduced by 17% with task shifting from doctors to professional nurses; this could have saved as much as $15 million (R163.20 million) in 2015, when the goal was 1.6 million circumcisions. About $14.2 million (R154 million) was spent on medical male circumcision demand creation in South Africa in 2014-primarily on personnel, including community mobilizers (36%), and on small and mass media promotions (35%). Calculating the unit cost of VMMC demand creation was daunting, because data on the denominator (number of people reached with demand creation messages or number of people seeking VMMC as a result of demand creation) were not available. Because there are no "dose-response" data on demand creation ($X in demand creation will result in an additional Z% increase in VMMC clients), research is needed to determine the appropriate amount and allocation of demand creation resources.
| S-EPMC5082632 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundSince its launch in 2010, the Tanzania National Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision (VMMC) Program has focused efforts on males ages 10-34 in 11 priority regions. Implementers have noted that over 70% of VMMC clients are between the ages of 10 and 19, raising questions about whether additional efforts would be required to recruit men age 20 and above. This analysis uses mathematical modeling to examine the economic and epidemiological consequences of scaling up VMMC among specific age groups and priority regions in Tanzania.Methods and findingsAnalyses were conducted using the Decision Makers' Program Planning Tool Version 2.0 (DMPPT 2.0), a compartmental model implemented in Microsoft Excel 2010. The model was populated with population, mortality, and HIV incidence and prevalence projections from external sources, including outputs from Spectrum/AIDS Impact Module (AIM). A separate DMPPT 2.0 model was created for each of the 11 priority regions. Tanzania can achieve the most immediate impact on HIV incidence by circumcising males ages 20-34. This strategy would also require the fewest VMMCs for each HIV infection averted. Circumcising men ages 10-24 will have the greatest impact on HIV incidence over a 15-year period. The most cost-effective approach (lowest cost per HIV infection averted) targets men ages 15-34. The model shows the VMMC program is cost saving in all 11 priority regions. VMMC program cost-effectiveness varies across regions due to differences in projected HIV incidence, with the most cost-effective programs in Njombe and Iringa.ConclusionsThe DMPPT 2.0 results reinforce Tanzania's current VMMC strategy, providing newfound confidence in investing in circumcising adolescents. Tanzanian policy makers and program implementers will continue to focus scale-up of VMMC on men ages 10-34 years, seeking to maximize program impact and cost-effectiveness while acknowledging trends in demand among the younger and older age groups.
| S-EPMC4943708 | biostudies-literature
Project description:As an HIV prevention strategy, the scale-up of voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) is underway in 14 countries in Africa. For prevention impact, these countries must perform millions of circumcisions in adolescent and adult men before 2015. Although acceptability of VMMC in the region is well documented and service delivery efforts have proven successful, countries remain behind in meeting circumcision targets. A better understanding of men's VMMC-seeking behaviors and experiences is needed to improve communication and interventions to accelerate uptake. To this end, we conducted semi-structured interviews with 40 clients waiting for surgical circumcision at clinics in Zambia. Based on Stages of Change behavioral theory, men were asked to recount how they learned about adult circumcision, why they decided it was right for them, what they feared most, how they overcame their fears, and the steps they took to make it to the clinic that day. Thematic analysis across all cases allowed us to identify key behavior change triggers while within-case analysis elucidated variants of one predominant behavior change pattern. Major stages included: awareness and critical belief adjustment, norming pressures and personalization of advantages, a period of fear management and finally VMMC-seeking. Qualitative comparative analysis of ever-married and never-married men revealed important similarities and differences between the two groups. Unprompted, 17 of the men described one to four failed prior attempts to become circumcised. Experienced more frequently by older men, failed VMMC attempts were often due to service-side barriers. Findings highlight intervention opportunities to increase VMMC uptake. Reaching uncircumcised men via close male friends and female sex partners and tailoring messages to stage-specific concerns and needs would help accelerate men's movement through the behavior change process. Expanding service access is also needed to meet current demand. Improving clinic efficiencies and introducing time-saving procedures and advance scheduling options should be considered.
| S-EPMC4222873 | biostudies-literature