Dataset Information

Heat wave Intensity Duration Frequency Curve: A Multivariate Approach for Hazard and Attribution Analysis.

ABSTRACT: Atmospheric warming is projected to intensify heat wave events, as quantified by multiple descriptors, including intensity, duration, and frequency. While most studies investigate one feature at a time, heat wave characteristics are often interdependent and ignoring the relationships between them can lead to substantial biases in frequency (hazard) analyses. We propose a multivariate approach to construct heat wave intensity, duration, frequency (HIDF) curves, which enables the concurrent analysis of all heat wave properties. Here we show how HIDF curves can be used in various locations to quantitatively describe the likelihood of heat waves with different intensities and durations. We then employ HIDF curves to attribute changes in heat waves to anthropogenic warming by comparing GCM simulations with and without anthropogenic emissions. For example, in Los Angeles, CA, HIDF analysis shows that we can attribute the 21% increase in the likelihood of a four-day heat wave (temperature?>?31?°C) to anthropogenic emissions.

SUBMITTER: Mazdiyasni O

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6773721 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Heat wave Intensity Duration Frequency Curve: A Multivariate Approach for Hazard and Attribution Analysis.

Mazdiyasni Omid O Sadegh Mojtaba M Chiang Felicia F AghaKouchak Amir A

Scientific reports 20191001 1

Atmospheric warming is projected to intensify heat wave events, as quantified by multiple descriptors, including intensity, duration, and frequency. While most studies investigate one feature at a time, heat wave characteristics are often interdependent and ignoring the relationships between them can lead to substantial biases in frequency (hazard) analyses. We propose a multivariate approach to construct heat wave intensity, duration, frequency (HIDF) curves, which enables the concurrent analys ...[more]

PMID: 31575944

Similar Datasets

Project description:Physiological stress may induce sublethal effects on fitness by limiting energy availability and shifting energy allocation, which can incur reproductive costs. Sublethal reproductive costs may affect vital rates, linking stress events such as heat waves to population demography. Here, we test the hypothesis that heat wave intensity and consecutive days of exposure to heat wave temperatures impact survival and individual reproductive success. We subjected groups of the marine harpacticoid copepod, Tigriopus californicus, to 6 heat wave regimes that differed in maximum exposure temperature, 26°C or 32°C, and number of consecutive exposure days (1, 2, or 7), and predicted that survival and reproductive costs would increase with heat wave intensity and duration. We measured individual survival and offspring production during the heat waves and for 2 weeks following the last day of each experimental heat wave. Despite similar survivorship between the 2 maximum temperature treatments, sublethal effects of heat wave intensity were observed. Consistent with our predictions, individuals that experienced the higher maximum temperature 32°C heat waves produced fewer offspring overall than those that experienced the 26°C heat wave. Furthermore, the number of naupliar larvae (nauplii) per clutch was lower in the 32°C group for egg clutches produced immediately after the final day of exposure. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that increasing thermal stress can lead to sublethal costs, even with no discernible effects on mortality. Heat waves may not always have lethal effects on individuals, especially for individuals that are adapted to routine exposures to high temperatures, such as those occupying the high intertidal. Costs, however, associated with stress and/or reduced performance due to non-linearities, can affect short-term demographic rates. The effect of these short-term sublethal perturbations is needed to fully understand the potential for population rescue and evolution in the face of rapid climate change.

Dataset Information

Heat wave Intensity Duration Frequency Curve: A Multivariate Approach for Hazard and Attribution Analysis.

Publications

Heat wave Intensity Duration Frequency Curve: A Multivariate Approach for Hazard and Attribution Analysis.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets