Dataset Information

Network analyses to quantify effects of host movement in multilevel disease transmission models using foot and mouth disease in Cameroon as a case study.

ABSTRACT: The dynamics of infectious diseases are greatly influenced by the movement of both susceptible and infected hosts. To accurately represent disease dynamics among a mobile host population, detailed movement models have been coupled with disease transmission models. However, a number of different host movement models have been proposed, each with their own set of assumptions and results that differ from the other models. Here, we compare two movement models coupled to the same disease transmission model using network analyses. This application of network analysis allows us to evaluate the fit and accuracy of the movement model in a multilevel modeling framework with more detail than established statistical modeling fitting methods. We used data that detailed mobile pastoralists' movements as input for 100 stochastic simulations of a Spatio-Temporal Movement (STM) model and 100 stochastic simulations of an Individual Movement Model (IMM). Both models represent dynamic movement and subsequent contacts. We generated networks in which nodes represent camps and edges represent the distance between camps. We simulated pathogen transmission over these networks and tested five network metrics-strength, betweenness centrality, three-step reach, density, and transitivity-to determine which could predict disease simulation outcomes and thereby be used to correlate model simulation results with disease transmission simulations. We found that strength, network density, and three-step reach of movement model results correlated with the final epidemic size of outbreak simulations. Betweenness centrality only weakly correlated for the IMM model. Transitivity only weakly correlated for the STM model and time-varying IMM model metrics. We conclude that movement models coupled with disease transmission models can affect disease transmission results and should be carefully considered and vetted when modeling pathogen spread in mobile host populations. Strength, network density, and three-step reach can be used to evaluate movement models before disease simulations to predict final outbreak sizes. These findings can contribute to the analysis of multilevel models across systems.

SUBMITTER: Pomeroy LW

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6776348 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Network analyses to quantify effects of host movement in multilevel disease transmission models using foot and mouth disease in Cameroon as a case study.

Pomeroy Laura W LW Kim Hyeyoung H Xiao Ningchuan N Moritz Mark M Garabed Rebecca R

PLoS computational biology 20190829 8

The dynamics of infectious diseases are greatly influenced by the movement of both susceptible and infected hosts. To accurately represent disease dynamics among a mobile host population, detailed movement models have been coupled with disease transmission models. However, a number of different host movement models have been proposed, each with their own set of assumptions and results that differ from the other models. Here, we compare two movement models coupled to the same disease transmission ...[more]

PMID: 31465448

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Project description:Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) causes morbidity and mortality in a range of animals and threatens local economies by acting as a barrier to international trade. The outbreak in the United Kingdom in 2001 that cost billions to control highlighted the risk that the pathogen poses to agriculture. In response, several mathematical models have been developed to parameterize and predict both transmission dynamics and optimal disease control. However, a lack of understanding of the multi-strain etiology prevents characterization of multi-strain dynamics. Here, we use data from FMDV serology in an endemic setting to probe strain-specific transmission and immunodynamics. Five serotypes of FMDV affect cattle in the Far North Region of Cameroon. We fit both catalytic and reverse catalytic models to serological data to estimate the force of infection and the rate of waning immunity, and to detect periods of sustained transmission. For serotypes SAT2, SAT3, and type A, a model assuming life-long immunity fit better. For serotypes SAT1 and type O, the better-fit model suggests that immunity may wane over time. Our analysis further indicates that type O has the greatest force of infection and the longest duration of immunity. Estimates for the force of infection were time-varying and indicated that serotypes SAT1 and O displayed endemic dynamics, serotype A displayed epidemic dynamics, and SAT2 and SAT3 did not sustain local chains of transmission. Since these results were obtained from the same population at the same time, they highlight important differences in transmission specific to each serotype. They also show that immunity wanes at rates specific to each serotype, which influences patterns of local persistence. Overall, this work shows that viral serotypes can differ significantly in their epidemiological and immunological characteristics. Patterns and processes that drive transmission in endemic settings must consider complex viral dynamics for accurate representation and interpretation.

Project description:Transboundary movement of animals is an important mechanism for foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) spread in endemic regions, such as Cameroon. Several transboundary animal trade routes cross the Far North Region of Cameroon, and cattle moved on foot along these routes often come in contact with native (sedentary and transhumant) herds. The purpose of this study was to investigate the role of transboundary trade cattle in the epidemiology of FMDV in the Far North Region of Cameroon. A total of 582 oropharyngeal fluid (OPF) samples were collected from asymptomatic transboundary trade cattle at official border check points and 57 vesicle epithelial tissues were collected from clinically affected native cattle in the Far North Region of Cameroon during 2010-2014. Viral protein 1 (VP1) coding sequences were obtained from 6 OPF samples from transboundary cattle (4 serotype O, 2 serotype SAT2) and 19 epithelial tissue samples from native cattle (7 serotype O, 3 serotype SAT2, 9 serotype A). FMDV serotype O viruses belonged to two topotypes (East Africa-3 and West Africa), and phylogenetic analyses suggested a pattern of continuous transmission in the region. Serotype SAT2 viruses belonged to a single topotype (VII), and phylogenetic analysis suggested a pattern of repeated introductions of different SAT2 lineages in the region. Serotype A viruses belonged to topotype AFRICA/G-IV, and the pattern of transmission was unclear. Spearman rank correlation analysis of VP1 coding sequences obtained in this study from transboundary and native cattle showed a positive correlation between genetic distance and time for serotype O (ρ = 0.71, p = 0.003) and between genetic distance and geographic distance for serotype SAT2 (ρ = 0.54, p = 0.1). These data suggest that transboundary trade cattle participate in the transmission of FMDV in the Far North Region of Cameroon, however the dynamics and direction of transmission could not be determined in this study. Results of this study contribute to the understanding of transboundary FMDV epidemiology in Central Africa and will help to inform control programs in Cameroon and in the region.

Dataset Information

Network analyses to quantify effects of host movement in multilevel disease transmission models using foot and mouth disease in Cameroon as a case study.

Publications

Network analyses to quantify effects of host movement in multilevel disease transmission models using foot and mouth disease in Cameroon as a case study.

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