Dataset Information

The Model of Mortality with Incident Cirrhosis (MoMIC) and the model of Long-term Outlook of Mortality in Cirrhosis (LOMiC).

ABSTRACT: The purpose of this study was to produce two statistical survival models in those with cirrhosis utilising only routine parameters, including non-liver-related clinical factors that influence survival. The first model identified and utilised factors impacting short-term survival to 90-days post incident diagnosis, and a further model characterised factors that impacted survival following this acute phase. Data were from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked with Hospital Episode Statistics. Incident cases in patients ?18 years were identified between 1998 and 2014. Patients that had prior history of cancer or had received liver transplants prior were excluded. Model-1 used a logistic regression model to predict mortality. Model-2 used data from those patients who survived 90 days, and used an extension of the Cox regression model, adjusting for time-dependent covariables. At 90 days, 23% of patients had died. Overall median survival was 3.7 years. Model-1: numerous predictors, prior comorbidities and decompensating events were incorporated. All comorbidities contributed to increased odds of death, with renal disease having the largest adjusted odds ratio (OR = 3.35, 95%CI 2.97-3.77). Model-2: covariables included cumulative admissions for liver disease-related events and admissions for infections. Significant covariates were renal disease (adjusted hazard ratio (HR = 2.89, 2.47-3.38)), elevated bilirubin levels (aHR = 1.38, 1.26-1.51) and low sodium levels (aHR = 2.26, 1.84-2.78). An internal validation demonstrated reliability of both models. In conclusion: two survival models that included parameters commonly recorded in routine clinical practice were generated that reliably forecast the risk of death in patients with cirrhosis: in the acute, post diagnosis phase, and following this critical, 90 day phase. This has implications for practice and helps better forecast the risk of mortality from cirrhosis using routinely recorded parameters without inputs from specialists.

SUBMITTER: Berni ER

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6776387 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The Model of Mortality with Incident Cirrhosis (MoMIC) and the model of Long-term Outlook of Mortality in Cirrhosis (LOMiC).

Berni Ellen R ER Jones Bethan I BI Berni Thomas R TR Whitehouse James J Hudson Mark M Orr James J Conway Pete P Amlani Bharat B Currie Craig J CJ

PloS one 20191003 10

The purpose of this study was to produce two statistical survival models in those with cirrhosis utilising only routine parameters, including non-liver-related clinical factors that influence survival. The first model identified and utilised factors impacting short-term survival to 90-days post incident diagnosis, and a further model characterised factors that impacted survival following this acute phase. Data were from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked with Hospital Episode Statist ...[more]

PMID: 31581237

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Project description:Although many studies have linked elevations in tropospheric ozone to adverse health outcomes, the effect of long-term exposure to ozone on air pollution-related mortality remains uncertain. We examined the potential contribution of exposure to ozone to the risk of death from cardiopulmonary causes and specifically to death from respiratory causes.Data from the study cohort of the American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study II were correlated with air-pollution data from 96 metropolitan statistical areas in the United States. Data were analyzed from 448,850 subjects, with 118,777 deaths in an 18-year follow-up period. Data on daily maximum ozone concentrations were obtained from April 1 to September 30 for the years 1977 through 2000. Data on concentrations of fine particulate matter (particles that are < or = 2.5 microm in aerodynamic diameter [PM(2.5)]) were obtained for the years 1999 and 2000. Associations between ozone concentrations and the risk of death were evaluated with the use of standard and multilevel Cox regression models.In single-pollutant models, increased concentrations of either PM(2.5) or ozone were significantly associated with an increased risk of death from cardiopulmonary causes. In two-pollutant models, PM(2.5) was associated with the risk of death from cardiovascular causes, whereas ozone was associated with the risk of death from respiratory causes. The estimated relative risk of death from respiratory causes that was associated with an increment in ozone concentration of 10 ppb was 1.040 (95% confidence interval, 1.010 to 1.067). The association of ozone with the risk of death from respiratory causes was insensitive to adjustment for confounders and to the type of statistical model used.In this large study, we were not able to detect an effect of ozone on the risk of death from cardiovascular causes when the concentration of PM(2.5) was taken into account. We did, however, demonstrate a significant increase in the risk of death from respiratory causes in association with an increase in ozone concentration.

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Dataset Information

The Model of Mortality with Incident Cirrhosis (MoMIC) and the model of Long-term Outlook of Mortality in Cirrhosis (LOMiC).

Publications

The Model of Mortality with Incident Cirrhosis (MoMIC) and the model of Long-term Outlook of Mortality in Cirrhosis (LOMiC).

Similar Datasets

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