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The contribution of age structure to the international homicide decline.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Since 1990, the world's homicide rate has declined by nearly 20%. While prior research has documented parallel homicide declines across many individual countries, the causes of a shared international homicide decline remain unknown. Drawing on a worldwide process of population ageing, and on research linking age to criminal activity, this study investigates the contribution of global demographic shifts to the international homicide decline. METHODS:We draw from (1) a High Coverage Sample of 126 countries since 1990, and (2) a Long Series Sample of 26 countries since 1960 and utilize fixed-effect regressions to evaluate the impact of age structure on homicide trends. In addition, we use a quantile regression to explore variations in the relationship between age structure and homicide conditional on homicide levels. FINDINGS:Results using the High Coverage Sample suggest no relationship between age structure and homicide. However, results from the Long Series Sample suggest that changes in the relative size of countries' youth population is a major predictor of homicide trends since 1960. In exploring this divergence, we find that the influence of age structure on homicide becomes less evident as other risk factors for violence gain prominence. Thus, while high homicide countries had the most to gain from falling homicide rates, the safety benefits of an ageing population have been concentrated among the least violent countries. INTERPRETATION:While the homicide declines of individual countries have often been attributed to domestic policies, the universality of international homicide trends suggests the influence of broader global phenomenon. We find that countries' homicide trends are strongly associated with changes in the size of their youth populations, particularly where there are few competing criminogenic forces. Based on these results, we propose an explanation for the international homicide decline, while highlighting the importance of demographic patterns in explaining homicide trends.

SUBMITTER: Renno Santos M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6784918 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The contribution of age structure to the international homicide decline.

Rennó Santos Mateus M Testa Alexander A Porter Lauren C LC Lynch James P JP

PloS one 20191009 10

<h4>Background</h4>Since 1990, the world's homicide rate has declined by nearly 20%. While prior research has documented parallel homicide declines across many individual countries, the causes of a shared international homicide decline remain unknown. Drawing on a worldwide process of population ageing, and on research linking age to criminal activity, this study investigates the contribution of global demographic shifts to the international homicide decline.<h4>Methods</h4>We draw from (1) a Hi ...[more]

PMID: 31596846

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Project description:An unfortunate result of the rapid rise in geriatric populations worldwide is the increasing prevalence of age-related cognitive disorders such as Alzheimer's disease (AD). AD is a devastating neurodegenerative illness that is characterized by a profound impairment of cognitive function, marked physical disability, and an enormous economic burden on the afflicted individual, caregivers, and society in general. The rise in elderly populations is also resulting in an increase in individuals with related (potentially treatable) conditions such as "Mild Cognitive Impairment" (MCI) which is characterized by a less severe (but abnormal) level of cognitive impairment and a high-risk for developing dementia. Even in the absence of a diagnosable disorder of cognition (e.g., AD and MCI), the perception of increased forgetfulness and declining mental function is a clear source of apprehension in the elderly. This is a valid concern given that even a modest impairment of cognitive function is likely to be associated with significant disability in a rapidly evolving, technology-based society. Unfortunately, the currently available therapies designed to improve cognition (i.e., for AD and other forms of dementia) are limited by modest efficacy and adverse side effects, and their effects on cognitive function are not sustained over time. Accordingly, it is incumbent on the scientific community to develop safer and more effective therapies that improve and/or sustain cognitive function in the elderly allowing them to remain mentally active and productive for as long as possible. As diagnostic criteria for memory disorders evolve, the demand for pro-cognitive therapeutic agents is likely to surpass AD and dementia to include MCI and potentially even less severe forms of memory decline. The purpose of this review is to provide an overview of the contemporary therapeutic targets and preclinical pharmacologic approaches (with representative drug examples) designed to enhance memory function.

Project description:Importance:Intimate partner violence during adolescence is widespread, and consequences can be severe. Intimate partner homicide (IPH) is the most extreme form of intimate partner violence, but literature on IPH has almost exclusively focused on adults. Objectives:To determine the proportion of adolescent homicides that is perpetrated by intimate partners and to describe the victim, perpetrator, and incident characteristics of these IPHs. Design, Setting, and Participants:Analysis of quantitative and qualitative surveillance data from the National Violent Death Reporting System from 2003 to 2016. Data represent 32 states that contributed to the system for 1 year or longer. There were 8048 homicides of victims aged 11 to 24 years with a known relationship between the victim and perpetrator. For persons aged 11 to 18 years, there were 2188 homicides. Analysis began September 2018. Main Outcomes and Measures:An incident was identified as an IPH if the relationship between the perpetrator and victim was coded as spouse, ex-spouse, girlfriend or boyfriend, ex-girlfriend or ex-boyfriend, or girlfriend or boyfriend (unspecified current or former). Variables of interest included demographic characteristics (age, sex, race/ethnicity) for the victim and perpetrator, relationship status at time of death, homicide-suicide, homicide method, firearm type, and location of homicide. Contextual categories were created from the qualitative narratives. Results:Of adolescent homicides, 150 (6.9%) were classified as IPH. A total of 135 victims (90%) were female (mean [SD] age,?16.8 [1.3] years). Overall, 102 perpetrators (77.9%) were 18 years and older (mean [SD] age,?20.6 [5.0] years), and 94 (62.7%) were current intimate partners of the victim. Firearms, specifically handguns, were the most common mechanism of injury. Compared with IPHs of young adults aged 19 to 24 years, perpetrators of adolescent victims were younger and less likely to be a current intimate partner. The most common categories of adolescent IPH homicides were broken/desired relationship or jealousy and an altercation followed by reckless firearm behavior and pregnancy related. Conclusions and Relevance:Adolescents, particularly girls, in dating relationships may face risk of homicide, especially in circumstances of a breakup or jealousy and when perpetrators have access to firearms. Understanding homicide in early dating relationships can inform prevention and intervention efforts tailored to adolescents.

Dataset Information

The contribution of age structure to the international homicide decline.

Publications

The contribution of age structure to the international homicide decline.

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