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Epidemiological and time series analysis of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome from 2004 to 2017 in Shandong Province, China.


ABSTRACT: Shandong Province is an area of China with a high incidence of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS); however, the general epidemic trend of HFRS in Shandong remains unclear. Therefore, we established a mathematical model to predict the incidence trend of HFRS and used Joinpoint regression analysis, a generalised additive model (GAM), and other methods to evaluate the data. Incidence data from the first half of 2018 were included in a range predicted by a modified sum autoregressive integrated moving average-support vector machine (ARIMA-SVM) combination model. The highest incidence of HFRS occurred in October and November, and the annual mortality rate decreased by 7.3% (p?

SUBMITTER: Zhang C 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6787217 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Epidemiological and time series analysis of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome from 2004 to 2017 in Shandong Province, China.

Zhang Chao C   Fu Xiao X   Zhang Yuanying Y   Nie Cuifang C   Li Liu L   Cao Haijun H   Wang Junmei J   Wang Baojia B   Yi Shuying S   Ye Zhen Z  

Scientific reports 20191010 1


Shandong Province is an area of China with a high incidence of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS); however, the general epidemic trend of HFRS in Shandong remains unclear. Therefore, we established a mathematical model to predict the incidence trend of HFRS and used Joinpoint regression analysis, a generalised additive model (GAM), and other methods to evaluate the data. Incidence data from the first half of 2018 were included in a range predicted by a modified sum autoregressive inte  ...[more]

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