Dataset Information

Epidemiological and time series analysis of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome from 2004 to 2017 in Shandong Province, China.

ABSTRACT: Shandong Province is an area of China with a high incidence of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS); however, the general epidemic trend of HFRS in Shandong remains unclear. Therefore, we established a mathematical model to predict the incidence trend of HFRS and used Joinpoint regression analysis, a generalised additive model (GAM), and other methods to evaluate the data. Incidence data from the first half of 2018 were included in a range predicted by a modified sum autoregressive integrated moving average-support vector machine (ARIMA-SVM) combination model. The highest incidence of HFRS occurred in October and November, and the annual mortality rate decreased by 7.3% (p?

SUBMITTER: Zhang C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6787217 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Epidemiological and time series analysis of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome from 2004 to 2017 in Shandong Province, China.

Zhang Chao C Fu Xiao X Zhang Yuanying Y Nie Cuifang C Li Liu L Cao Haijun H Wang Junmei J Wang Baojia B Yi Shuying S Ye Zhen Z

Scientific reports 20191010 1

Shandong Province is an area of China with a high incidence of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS); however, the general epidemic trend of HFRS in Shandong remains unclear. Therefore, we established a mathematical model to predict the incidence trend of HFRS and used Joinpoint regression analysis, a generalised additive model (GAM), and other methods to evaluate the data. Incidence data from the first half of 2018 were included in a range predicted by a modified sum autoregressive inte ...[more]

PMID: 31601887

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Project description:BackgroundHemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a rodent-borne disease caused by Hantaviruses. It is endemic in all 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and metropolitan areas in mainland China where human cases account for 90% of the total global cases. Shandong Province is among the most serious endemic areas. HFRS cases in Shandong Province were first reported in Yutai County in 1968. Since then, the disease has spread across the province, and as of 2005, all 111 counties were reported to have local human infections. However, causes underlying such rapid spread and wide distribution remain less well understood.Methods and findingsHere we report a spatiotemporal analysis of human HFRS cases in Shandong using data spanning 1973 to 2005. Seasonal incidence maps and velocity vector maps were produced to analyze the spread of HFRS over time in Shandong Province, and a panel data analysis was conducted to explore the association between HFRS incidence and climatic factors. Results show a rapid spread of HFRS from its epicenter in Rizhao, Linyi, Weifang Regions in southern Shandong to north, east, and west parts of the province. Based on seasonal shifts of epidemics, three epidemic phases were identified over the 33-year period. The first phase occurred between 1973 and 1982 during which the foci of HFRS was located in the south Shandong and the epidemic peak occurred in the fall and winter, presenting a seasonal characteristic of Hantaan virus (HTNV) transmission. The second phase between 1983 and 1985 was characterized by northward and westward spread of HFRS foci, and increases in incidence of HFRS in both fall-winter and spring seasons. The human infections in the spring reflected a characteristic pattern of Seoul virus (SEOV) transmission. The third phase between 1986 and 2005 was characterized by the northeast spread of the HFRS foci until it covered all counties, and the HFRS incidence in the fall-winter season decreased while it remained high in the spring. In addition, our findings suggest that precipitation, humidity, and temperature are major environmental variables that are associated with the seasonal variation of HFRS incidence in Shandong Province.ConclusionsThe spread of HFRS in Shandong Province may have been accompanied by seasonal shifts of HTNV-dominated transmission to SEOV-dominated transmission over the past three decades. The variations in HFRS incidence were significantly associated with local precipitation, humidity, and temperature.

Project description:BackgroundNatural-focal diseases are serious diseases that endanger human health. They threaten about 100 million people in Shandong Province, and cause illness in thousands of people each year. However, information on the epidemiological characteristics of natural-focal diseases in Shandong Province has been limited. The purpose of the study was to describe and analyze the epidemiological characteristics of natural-focal diseases in Shandong Province, 2009-2017.MethodsWe describe the incidence and distribution of four natural-focal diseases in Shandong Province using surveillance data from 2009-2017.ResultsFrom 2009-2017, 11123 cases of four natural-focal diseases including 257 deaths were reported in Shandong Province, China. The four natural-focal diseases were severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS), human granulocytic anaplasmosis (HGA), typhus, and scrub typhus. The high-risk groups of the four diseases were farmers and the elderly. The incidence rate of scrub typhus was significantly higher in females. However, this difference was not seen in the other three diseases. The four diseases were mainly clustered in the middle-southern part of Shandong Province and the Shandong Peninsula. The annual incidence of SFTS and scrub typhus increased, typhus was relatively stable, and HGA declined. However, the range of SFTS expanded, while HGA shrunk, and typhus and scrub typhus were unchanged. The epidemic period of SFTS and HGA was from May to October, typhus was from October to November, and scrub typhus was from September to November. The fatality rates of SFTS, typhus, scrub typhus, and HGA were 9.19%, 0%, 0.01%, and 2.24%, respectively.ConclusionsOur study described and analyzed the prevalence of natural-focal diseases in Shandong Province, and confirmed that age was closely related to the SFTS fatality rate. This study may help to improve the understanding of the prevalence of natural-focal diseases in Shandong Province in recent years and to better develop accurate prevention and control strategies for natural-focal diseases.

Dataset Information

Epidemiological and time series analysis of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome from 2004 to 2017 in Shandong Province, China.

Publications

Epidemiological and time series analysis of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome from 2004 to 2017 in Shandong Province, China.

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