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State Variation in Early-Onset Colorectal Cancer in the United States, 1995-2015.

ABSTRACT: The extent to which the increase in early-onset colorectal cancer (CRC) in the United States varies geographically is unknown. We analyzed changes in CRC incidence and risk factors among people aged 20-49 years by state using high-quality population-based cancer registry data provided by the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries and national survey data, respectively. Early-onset CRC incidence was mostly stable among blacks and Hispanics but increased in 40 of 47 states among non-Hispanic whites, most prominently in western states. For example, rates increased in Washington from 6.7 (per 100 000) during 1995-1996 to 11.5 during 2014-2015 (rate ratio = 1.73, 95% confidence interval = 1.48 to 2.01) and in Colorado from 6.0 to 9.5 (rate ratio = 1.57, 95% confidence interval = 1.30 to 1.91). Nevertheless, current CRC incidence was highest in southern states. From 1995 to 2005, increases occurred in obesity prevalence in all states and heavy alcohol consumption in one-third of states, but neither were correlated with CRC incidence trends. Early-onset CRC is increasing most rapidly among whites in western states. Etiologic studies are needed to explore early life colorectal carcinogenesis.

SUBMITTER: Siegel RL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6792093 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:ImportanceEarly-onset colorectal cancer incidence rates among patients aged 45 to 49 years have been considered much lower compared with the rates among patients aged 50 to 54 years, prompting debate about earlier screening benefits at 45 years. However, the observed incidence rates in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registries may underestimate colorectal cancer case burdens in those younger than 50 years compared with those older than 50 years because average-risk screening is generally not performed to detect preclinical cases of colorectal cancer. Finding steep incidence increases of invasive stage (beyond in situ) cases of colorectal cancer from age 49 to 50 years would be consistent with high rates of preexisting, undetected cancers in younger patients ultimately receiving a diagnosis of colorectal cancer after undergoing screening at 50 years.ObjectiveTo assess the preclinical burden of colorectal cancer by analyzing its incidence in 1-year age increments, focusing on the transition between ages 49 and 50 years.Design, setting, and participantsData from the SEER 18 registries, representing 28% of the US population, were used to conduct a cross-sectional study of colorectal cancer incidence rates from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2015, in 1-year age increments (ages 30-60 years) stratified by US region (South, West, Northeast, and Midwest), sex, race, disease stage, and tumor location. Statistical analysis was conducted from November 1, 2018, to December 15, 2019.Main outcomes and measuresIncidence rates of colorectal cancer.ResultsA total of 170 434 cases of colorectal cancer were analyzed among 165 160 patients (92 247 men [55.9%]; mean [SD] age, 51.6 [6.7] years). Steep increases in the incidence of colorectal cancer in the SEER 18 registries were found from 49 to 50 years of age (46.1% increase: 34.9 [95% CI, 34.1-35.8] to 51.0 [95% CI, 50.0-52.1] per 100 000 population). Steep rate increases from 49 to 50 years of age were also seen in all US regions, men and women, white and black populations, and in colon and rectal cancers. The rate ratio incidence increase in the SEER 18 registries from 49 to 50 years of age (1.46 [95% CI, 1.43-1.51]) was significantly higher than earlier 1-year age transitions. Steep rate increases in the SEER 18 registries were found from 49 to 50 years of age in localized-stage (75.9% increase: 11.2 [95% CI, 10.7-11.7] to 19.7 [95% CI, 19.0-20.3] per 100 000) and regional-stage (30.3% increase: 13.2 [95% CI, 12.7-13.8] to 17.2 [95% CI, 16.7-17.8] per 100 000) colorectal cancers. A total of 8799 of the 9474 cases (92.9%) of colorectal cancer in the SEER 18 registries from 2000 to 2015 that were diagnosed among individuals aged 50 years were invasive.Conclusions and relevanceSteep incidence increases between 49 and 50 years of age are consistent with previously undetected colorectal cancers diagnosed via screening uptake at 50 years. These cancers are not reflected in observed rates of colorectal cancer in the SEER registries among individuals younger than 50 years. Hence, using observed incidence rates from 45 to 49 years of age alone to assess potential outcomes of earlier screening may underestimate cancer prevention benefits.

Project description:BackgroundAlthough early-onset colorectal cancer (EOCRC) incidence rates (IRs) are increasing, geographic and intra-racial IR disparities are not well defined.Methods2000-2015 Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program CRC IR Analysis (170,434 cases) was performed from ages 30 to 60 in four US regions, 18 individual registries, metropolitan and nonmetropolitan locations and stratified by race. Analyses were conducted in 1-year and 5-year age increments.ResultsWide US regional EOCRC IR variations exist: For example, age 45 IRs in the south are 26.8/100,000, 36.0% higher than the West, 19.7/100,000 (p < 0.0001). Disparities magnify between individual registries: EOCRC IRs in highest risk registries were 177-348% (Alaska Natives), 75-200% (Hawaii), 76-128% (Louisiana), and 61-125% (Kentucky) higher than lowest risk registries depending on age. EOCRC IRs are 18.2%-25.6% higher in nonmetropolitan versus metropolitan settings. Wide geographic intra-racial disparities exist. Within the White population, the greatest IR difference (78.8%) was between Kentucky (5.9/100,000) and Los Angeles (3.3/100,000) in 30- to 34-year-olds (p < .0001). Within the Black population, the greatest difference (136.2%) was between rural Georgia (30.7/100,000) and California excluding San Francisco-Oakland/San Jose-Monterey/Los Angeles (13/100,000) in 40- to 44-year-olds (p = 0003).ConclusionMarked geographic EOCRC disparities exist with disproportionately high IRs in Alaska Natives, Hawaii, and southern registries. Geographic intra-racial disparities are present within White and Black populations. In Blacks, there are disproportionately high EOCRC IRs in rural Georgia. Although vigilance is required in all populations, attention must be paid to these higher risk populations. Potential interventions include assuring early investigation of symptoms, targeting modifiable risk factors and utilizing earlier age 45 screening options supported by some guidelines.

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State Variation in Early-Onset Colorectal Cancer in the United States, 1995-2015.

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