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Impacts of environmental and socio-economic factors on emergence and epidemic potential of Ebola in Africa.

ABSTRACT: Recent outbreaks of animal-borne emerging infectious diseases have likely been precipitated by a complex interplay of changing ecological, epidemiological and socio-economic factors. Here, we develop modelling methods that capture elements of each of these factors, to predict the risk of Ebola virus disease (EVD) across time and space. Our modelling results match previously-observed outbreak patterns with high accuracy, and suggest further outbreaks could occur across most of West and Central Africa. Trends in the underlying drivers of EVD risk suggest a 1.75 to 3.2-fold increase in the endemic rate of animal-human viral spill-overs in Africa by 2070, given current modes of healthcare intervention. Future global change scenarios with higher human population growth and lower rates of socio-economic development yield a fourfold higher likelihood of epidemics occurring as a result of spill-over events. Our modelling framework can be used to target interventions designed to reduce epidemic risk for many zoonotic diseases.

SUBMITTER: Redding DW

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6794280 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Impacts of environmental and socio-economic factors on emergence and epidemic potential of Ebola in Africa.

Redding David W DW Atkinson Peter M PM Cunningham Andrew A AA Lo Iacono Gianni G Moses Lina M LM Wood James L N JLN Jones Kate E KE

Nature communications 20191015 1

Recent outbreaks of animal-borne emerging infectious diseases have likely been precipitated by a complex interplay of changing ecological, epidemiological and socio-economic factors. Here, we develop modelling methods that capture elements of each of these factors, to predict the risk of Ebola virus disease (EVD) across time and space. Our modelling results match previously-observed outbreak patterns with high accuracy, and suggest further outbreaks could occur across most of West and Central Af ...[more]

PMID: 31615986

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Project description:BackgroundThe linkage between the socio-economic inequality and HIV outcomes was analysed using data from a population-based household survey that employed multistage-stratified sampling. The goal is to help refocus attention on how HIV is linked to inequalities.MethodsA socio-economic index (SEI) score, derived using Multiple Correspondence Analysis of measures of ownership of durable assets, was used to generate three SEI groups: Low (poorest), Middle, and Upper (no so poor). Distribution of HIV outcomes (i.e. HIV prevalence, access to HIV/AIDS information, level of stigma towards HIV/AIDS, perceived HIV risk and sexual behaviour) across the SEI groups, and other background characteristics was assessed using weighted data. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression was used to assess the covariates of the HIV outcomes across the socio-economic groups. The study sample include 14,384 adults 15 years and older.ResultsMore women (57.5%) than men (42.3%) were found in the poor SEI [P<0.001]. HIV prevalence was highest among the poor (20.8%) followed by those in the middle (15.9%) and those in the upper SEI (4.6%) [P<0.001]. It was also highest among women compared to men (19.7% versus 11.4% respectively) and among black Africans (20.2%) compared to other races [P<0.001]. Individuals in the upper SEI reported higher frequency of HIV testing (59.3%) compared to the low SEI (47.7%) [P< 0.001]. Only 20.5% of those in poor SEI had "good access to HIV/AIDS information" compared to 79.5% in the upper SEI (P<0.001). A higher percentage of the poor had a stigmatizing attitude towards HIV/AIDS (45.6%) compared to those in the upper SEI (34.8%) [P< 0.001]. There was a high personal HIV risk perception among the poor (40.0%) and it declined significantly to 10.9% in the upper SEI.ConclusionsOur findings underline the disproportionate burden of HIV disease and HIV fear among the poor and vulnerable in South Africa. The poor are further disadvantaged by lack of access to HIV information and HIV/AIDS services such as testing for HIV infection. There is a compelling urgency for the national HIV/AIDS response to maximizing program focus for the poor particularly women.

Dataset Information

Impacts of environmental and socio-economic factors on emergence and epidemic potential of Ebola in Africa.

Publications

Impacts of environmental and socio-economic factors on emergence and epidemic potential of Ebola in Africa.

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