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A prognostic nomogram for overall survival in male breast cancer with histology of infiltrating duct carcinoma after surgery.

ABSTRACT: Objective:The study was designed to construct and validate a nomogram for predicting overall survival (OS) of male breast cancer (MBC) patients with infiltrating duct carcinoma (IDC). Methods:The cohort was selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between January 1, 2004 and December 31, 2013. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard (PH) regression models were performed. A nomogram was developed based on the significant prognostic indicators of OS. The discriminatory and predictive capacities of nomogram were assessed by Harrell's concordance index (C-index), calibration plots, area under the curve (AUC) and the decision curve analysis (DCA). Results:The median and maximal survival time of 1862 eligible patients were 49 and 131 months, respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that age (P < 0.0001), marital status (P = 0.002), T stage (P < 0.0001), N stage (P = 0.021), M stage (P < 0.0001), progesterone receptor (PR) (P = 0.046), human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 (HER2) (P = 0.009), and chemotherapy (P = 0.003) were independent prognostic indicators of IDC of MBC. The eight variables were then combined to construct a 3-and 5-year nomogram. The C-indexes of the nomogram were0.740 (95% confidence interval [CI] [0.709-0.771]) and 0.718 (95% CI [0.672-0.764]) for the internal validation and external validation, respectively. A better discriminatory capacity was observed in the nomogram compared with the SEER summary stage (P < 0.001) and AJCC TNM staging systems (6th edition; P < 0.001) with respect to OS prediction. Good consistency was detected between the nomogram prediction and actual findings, as indicated by calibration curves. The AUC for 3-and 5-year OS was 0.739 (95% CI [0.693-0.786]) and 0.764 (95% CI [0.725-0.803]) in the training cohort and 0.737 (95% CI [0.671-0.803]) and 0.735 (95% CI [0.678-0.793]) in the validation cohort, respectively. The DCA demonstrated that the survival nomogram was clinically useful. Conclusions:The nomogram was able to more accurately predict 3-and 5-year OS of MBC patients with IDC histology than were existing models.

SUBMITTER: Chai X

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6796958 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundMetaplastic breast cancer (MBC) is a rare breast tumor and the prognostic factors for survival in patients still remain controversial. This study aims to develop and validate a nomogram to predict the overall survival (OS) of patients with MBC.MethodsWe searched the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database for data about patients including metaplastic breast cancer and infiltrating ductal carcinoma (IDC) from 2010 to 2018. The survival outcomes of patients between MBC and IDC were analyzed and compared with the Kaplan-Meier (KM) method. MBC patients were randomly allocated to the training set and validation I set by a ratio of eight to two. Meanwhile, the performance of this model was validated again by the validation II set, which consisted of MBC patients from the Union Hospital of Fujian Medical University between 2010 and 2018. The independent prognostic factors were selected by univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. The nomogram was constructed to predict individual survival outcomes for MBC patients. The discriminative power, calibration, and clinical effectiveness of the nomogram were evaluated by the concordance index (C-index), the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and the decision curve analysis (DCA).ResultsMBC had a significantly higher T stage (T2 and above accounting for 75.1% vs 39.9%), fewer infiltrated lymph nodes (N0 accounted for 76.2% vs 67.7%), a lower proportion of ER (22.2% vs 81.2%), PR (13.6% vs 71.4%), and HER-2(6.7% vs 17.7%) positive, radiotherapy(51.6% vs 58.0%) but more chemotherapy(67.5% vs 44.7%), and a higher rate of mastectomy(53.2% vs 36.8%), which was discovered when comparing the clinical baseline data between MBC and IDC. Age at diagnosis, T, N, and M stage, as well as surgery and radiation treatment, were all significant independent prognostic factors for overall survival (OS). In the validation I cohort, the nomogram's C-index (0.769 95% CI 0.710 -0.828) was indicated to be considerably higher than the standard AJCC model's (0.700 95% CI 0.644 -0.756). Nomogram's great predictive capability capacity further was supported by the comparatively high C-index of the validation II sets (0.728 95%CI 0.588-0.869).ConclusionsMetaplastic breast cancer is more aggressive, with a worse clinical prognosis than IDC. This nomogram is recommended for patients with MBC, both American and Chinese, which can help clinicians make more accurate individualized survival analyses.

Project description:BackgroundMerkel cell carcinoma (MCC) is a rare and aggressive neuroendocrine carcinoma of the skin. As the clinical course can be variable, prognostic markers are needed to better stratify patients. Prior literature, composed of small series with limited sample size, has demonstrated that tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) are an important prognostic marker in MCC. To validate these findings on a population level, we sought to analyze and report the prognostic value of TILs in a large national data set.Materials and methodsA retrospective observational cohort study was conducted of patients with nonmetastatic MCC from 2010 to 2015 using the National Cancer Database. Individual variables trending toward significance using a univariable analysis were included in a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model to assess their independent effect on overall survival (OS). TILs were subclassified into none, nonbrisk, and brisk and the survival analysis was performed. Propensity score-weighted multivariable analysis (PS MVA) was performed to adjust for additional confounding.ResultsA total of 2,182 patients met inclusion criteria: 611 (28.0%) were identified as having TILs present, and 1,571 (72.0%) had TILs absent in the tumor. On MVA, subdivision of TIL status into nonbrisk (hazard ratio [HR], 0.750; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.602-0.933) and brisk (HR, 0.499; 95% CI, 0.338-0.735) was associated with incrementally improved OS compared with no TILs. The association of nonbrisk and brisk TILs with improved OS was retained on PS MVA (Nonbrisk: HR, 0.720; 95% CI, 0.550-0.944; Brisk: HR, 0.483; 95% CI, 0.286-0.814).ConclusionThe presence of nonbrisk and brisk TILs is associated with incrementally improved OS in patients with nonmetastatic MCC in a large national data set. This pathologic feature can aid with risk stratification, estimation of prognosis, and, importantly, decision-making with respect to treatment intensification in high-risk patients.Implications for practiceMerkel cell carcinoma (MCC) is an aggressive neuroendocrine cutaneous malignancy with variable clinical course. Prognostic markers are needed to better risk stratify patients. We present the largest retrospective observational cohort study of patients with nonmetastatic MCC using the National Cancer Database. Our analysis demonstrates an association between increasing degrees of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes and incrementally improved survival. These conclusions improve pathologic risk stratification, and decision-making with respect to treatment intensification. Intensification may include adjuvant radiation therapy to the primary site after wide excision despite small tumor size, to the nodal basin in sentinel lymph node-negative patients, or offering closer follow-up.

Project description:BackgroundOral tongue squamous cell carcinoma (OTSCC) is a devastating tumor with poor prognosis. There is an urgent need for reliable biomarkers to help predict prognosis and guide treatment for OTSCC. In the current study, we aimed to develop a robust multi-gene signature and prognostic nomogram to predict the prognosis of patients with non-distant metastatic OTSCC.MethodsOTSCC-related differentially-expressed genes were screened from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database. Univariate Cox regression based on 1,000 bootstrap replicates, LASSO regression and stepwise multivariate Cox regression were utilized to develop a novel multi-mRNA signature for predicting overall survival in OTSCC. The concordance index, area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC AUC) and calibration curve were employed to assess the prediction capacity of the novel multi-gene model. In addition, a prognostic nomogram was constructed to facilitate the clinical use of the fitted model. The Kaplan-Meier with log-rank test was employed to assess differences in overall survival.ResultsWe successfully established a novel 15-mRNA prognostic model for predicting overall survival of non-distant metastatic OTSCC, involving ADTRP, ITGA3, RFC4, CCDC96, CYP2J2, NELL2, SPHK1, SPAG16, HBEGF, S100A9, EGFL6, ADGRG6, PDE4D, ABCA4, and CTTN. The prediction ability of this 15-gene signature was independent of other clinicopathological factors, with an HR of 11.5 (95% CI: 4.70-28.3). Moreover, internal validation by bootstrap analysis yielded a C-index of 0.849, with a 3-year AUC of 0.907 and 5-year AUC of 0.944, which implied excellent prediction accuracy of the fitted model. In addition, external validation by using the GEO dataset (GSE41116) yielded a C-index of 0.804, with a 3-year AUC of 0.868 and 5-year AUC of 0.855, which also indicated good prediction ability of the 15-gene model. Finally, a prognostic nomogram integrating risk group, grade, T stage and N stage was established.ConclusionOur results demonstrate our 15-gene signature was independently associated with overall survival in non-distant metastatic OTSCC. Moreover, the prognostic nomogram integrating the 15-gene signature and clinicopathological factors has potential to be developed as a prognostic tool.

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A prognostic nomogram for overall survival in male breast cancer with histology of infiltrating duct carcinoma after surgery.

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