Dataset Information

Changes in extreme temperature over China when global warming stabilized at 1.5?°C and 2.0?°C.

ABSTRACT: The 1.5?°C global warming target proposed by the Paris Agreement has raised worldwide attention and inspired numerous studies to assess corresponding climate changes for different regions of the world. But CMIP5 models based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) are 'transient simulations' and cannot reflect the response of climate warming stabilized at 1.5?°C. The current work presents an assessment of extreme temperature changes in China with simulations from 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project specially conceived for global warming levels stabilized at 1.5?°C and 2.0?°C. When global warming stabilizes at 1.5?°C/2.0?°C, the areal-mean temperature for whole China increases by about 0.94?°C/1.59?°C (relative to present period, taken from 2006-2015). Notable increase regions are mainly found in Northwest and Northeast-North China, but warm spell duration increases mostly in Southeast China. The effect of the additional 0.5?°C warming is particularly investigated and compared between the transient and stabilized simulations. Changes of mean and extreme temperature are larger in transient simulations than in stabilized simulations. The uncertainty range is also narrower in stabilized simulations. Under stabilized global warming scenario, extreme hot event with return period of 100 years in the present climate becomes event occurring every 4.79 (1.5?°C warming level) and 1.56 years (2.0?°C warming level), extreme cold event with return period of 10 years becomes event occurring every 67 years under 1.5?°C warming and is unlikely to occur under 2.0?°C warming. For geographic distribution, the occurrence probabilities of extreme (hot and cold) events mainly change in the Tibetan Plateau, and the extreme cold events also change in Northeast and Southeast China.

SUBMITTER: Sun C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6800422 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Changes in extreme temperature over China when global warming stabilized at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C.

Sun Cenxiao C Jiang Zhihong Z Li Wei W Hou Qiyao Q Li Laurent L

Scientific reports 20191018 1

The 1.5 °C global warming target proposed by the Paris Agreement has raised worldwide attention and inspired numerous studies to assess corresponding climate changes for different regions of the world. But CMIP5 models based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) are 'transient simulations' and cannot reflect the response of climate warming stabilized at 1.5 °C. The current work presents an assessment of extreme temperature changes in China with simulations from 'Half a degree Additional ...[more]

PMID: 31628358

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Project description:The differential warming of land and ocean leads to many continental regions in the Northern Hemisphere warming at rates higher than the global mean temperature. Adaptation and conservation efforts will, therefore, benefit from understanding regional consequences of limiting the global mean temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, a limit agreed upon at the United Nations Climate Summit in Paris in December 2015. Here, we analyze climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to determine the timing and magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes across the contiguous United States (US) for global warming of 1.5 and 2°C and highlight consensus and uncertainties in model projections and their implications for making decisions. The regional warming rates differ considerably across the contiguous US, but all regions are projected to reach 2°C about 10-20 years before the global mean temperature. Although there is uncertainty in the timing of exactly when the 1.5 and 2°C thresholds will be crossed regionally, over 80% of the models project at least 2°C warming by 2050 for all regions for the high emissions scenario. This threshold-based approach also highlights regional variations in the rate of warming across the US. The fastest warming region in the contiguous US is the Northeast, which is projected to warm by 3°C when global warming reaches 2°C. The signal-to-noise ratio calculations indicate that the regional warming estimates remain outside the envelope of uncertainty throughout the twenty-first century, making them potentially useful to planners. The regional precipitation projections for global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C are uncertain, but the eastern US is projected to experience wetter winters and the Great Plains and the Northwest US are projected to experience drier summers in the future. The impact of different scenarios on regional precipitation projections is negligible throughout the twenty-first century compared to uncertainties associated with internal variability and model diversity.

Dataset Information

Changes in extreme temperature over China when global warming stabilized at 1.5?°C and 2.0?°C.

Publications

Changes in extreme temperature over China when global warming stabilized at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C.

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