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A Clinical Prediction Rule for Protease Inhibitor Resistance in Patients Failing Second-Line Antiretroviral Therapy.


ABSTRACT:

Background

Most adults with virological failure on second-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-limited settings have no major protease inhibitor (PI) resistance mutations. Therefore, empiric switches to third-line ART would waste resources. Genotypic antiretroviral resistance testing (GART) is expensive and has limited availability. A clinical prediction rule (CPR) for PI resistance could rationalize access to GART.

Setting

A private sector ART cohort, South Africa.

Methods

We identified adults with virologic failure on ritonavir-boosted lopinavir/atazanavir-based ART and GART. We constructed a multivariate logistic regression model including age, sex, PI duration, short-term adherence (using pharmacy claims), concomitant CYP3A4-inducing drugs, and viral load at time of GART. We selected variables for the CPR using a stepwise approach and internally validated the model by bootstrapping.

Results

148/339 (44%) patients had PI resistance (defined as ? 1 major resistance mutation to current PI). The median age was 42 years (interquartile range 36-48), 212 (63%) were females, 308 (91%) were on lopinavir/ritonavir, and median PI duration was 2.6 years (interquartile range 1.6-4.7). Variables associated with PI resistance and included in the CPR were age {adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.96 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.42 to 2.70) for 10-year increase}, PI duration (aOR 1.14 [95% CI: 1.03 to 1.26] per year), and adherence (aOR 1.22 [95% CI: 1.12 to 1.33] per 10% increase). The CPR model had a c-statistic of 0.738 (95% CI: 0.686 to 0.791).

Conclusions

Older patients with high adherence and prolonged PI exposure are most likely to benefit from GART to guide selection of a third-line ART regimen. Our CPR to select patients for GART requires external validation before implementation.

SUBMITTER: Cohen K 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6802273 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A Clinical Prediction Rule for Protease Inhibitor Resistance in Patients Failing Second-Line Antiretroviral Therapy.

Cohen Karen K   Stewart Annemie A   Kengne Andre P AP   Leisegang Rory R   Coetsee Marla M   Maharaj Shavani S   Dunn Liezl L   Hislop Michael M   van Zyl Gert G   Meintjes Graeme G   Maartens Gary G  

Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) 20190301 3


<h4>Background</h4>Most adults with virological failure on second-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-limited settings have no major protease inhibitor (PI) resistance mutations. Therefore, empiric switches to third-line ART would waste resources. Genotypic antiretroviral resistance testing (GART) is expensive and has limited availability. A clinical prediction rule (CPR) for PI resistance could rationalize access to GART.<h4>Setting</h4>A private sector ART cohort, South Africa.<h4>Me  ...[more]

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