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Modeling the natural history of fatty liver using lifestyle-related risk factors: Effects of body mass index (BMI) on the life-course of fatty liver.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Incident fatty liver increases the risk of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), which may lead to end-stage liver diseases, and increase the risk of cardiovascular disease and diabetes. For its prevention, modeling the natural history of fatty liver is useful to demonstrate which lifestyle-related risk factors (e.g. body mass index and cholesterol) play the greatest role in the life-course of fatty liver. METHODS:Model predictors and their predictive algorithms were determined by prospective regression analyses using 5-year data from approximately 2000 Japanese men aged 20-69 years. The participants underwent health examinations and completed questionnaires on their lifestyle behaviors annually from 2012 to 2016. The life-course of fatty liver was simulated based on this participant data using Monte Carlo simulation methods. Sensitivity analyses were performed. The validity of the model was discussed. RESULTS:The body mass index (BMI) and low-density/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C/HDL-C) ratio significantly aided in predicting incident fatty liver. When the natural history of fatty liver was simulated using the data of participants aged 30-39 years, the prevalence increased from 20% to 32% at 40-59 years before decreasing to 24% at 70-79 years. When annual updates of BMI and LDL-C/HDL-C ratio decreased/increased by 1%, the peak prevalence of fatty liver (32%) changed by -8.0/10.7% and -1.6/1.4%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS:We modeled the natural history of fatty liver for adult Japanese men. The model includes BMI and LDL?C/HDL?C ratio, which played a significant role in predicting the presence of fatty liver. Specifically, annual changes in BMI of individuals more strongly affected the life?course of fatty liver than those in the LDL-C/HDL-C ratio. Sustainable BMI control for individuals may be the most effective option for preventing fatty liver in a population.

SUBMITTER: Aizawa M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6802837 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Modeling the natural history of fatty liver using lifestyle-related risk factors: Effects of body mass index (BMI) on the life-course of fatty liver.

Aizawa Mika M Inagaki Seiichi S Moriyama Michiko M Asano Kenichiro K Kakehashi Masayuki M

PloS one 20191021 10

<h4>Background</h4>Incident fatty liver increases the risk of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), which may lead to end-stage liver diseases, and increase the risk of cardiovascular disease and diabetes. For its prevention, modeling the natural history of fatty liver is useful to demonstrate which lifestyle-related risk factors (e.g. body mass index and cholesterol) play the greatest role in the life-course of fatty liver.<h4>Methods</h4>Model predictors and their predictive algorithms we ...[more]

PMID: 31634357

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Project description:Based on the assumption that characterizing the history of a disease will help in improving practice while offering a clue to research, this article aims at reviewing the history of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in adults and children. To this end, we address the history of NAFLD histopathology, which begins in 1980 with Ludwig's seminal studies, although previous studies date back to the 19th century. Moreover, the principal milestones in the definition of genetic NAFLD are summarized. Next, a specific account is given of the evolution, over time, of our understanding of the association of NAFLD with metabolic syndrome, spanning from the outdated concept of "NAFLD as a manifestation of the Metabolic Syndrome", to the more appropriate consideration that NAFLD has, with metabolic syndrome, a mutual and bi-directional relationship. In addition, we also report on the evolution from first intuitions to more recent studies, supporting NAFLD as an independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease. This association probably has deep roots, going back to ancient Middle Eastern cultures, wherein the liver had a significance similar to that which the heart holds in contemporary society. Conversely, the notions that NAFLD is a forerunner of hepatocellular carcinoma and extra-hepatic cancers is definitely more modern. Interestingly, guidelines issued by hepatological societies have lagged behind the identification of NAFLD by decades. A comparative analysis of these documents defines both shared attitudes (e.g., ultrasonography and lifestyle changes as the first approaches) and diverging key points (e.g., the threshold of alcohol consumption, screening methods, optimal non-invasive assessment of liver fibrosis and drug treatment options). Finally, the principal historical steps in the general, cellular and molecular pathogenesis of NAFLD are reviewed. We conclude that an in-depth understanding of the history of the disease permits us to better comprehend the disease itself, as well as to anticipate the lines of development of future NAFLD research.

Dataset Information

Modeling the natural history of fatty liver using lifestyle-related risk factors: Effects of body mass index (BMI) on the life-course of fatty liver.

Publications

Modeling the natural history of fatty liver using lifestyle-related risk factors: Effects of body mass index (BMI) on the life-course of fatty liver.

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