Dataset Information

Climate-driven regime shifts in a mangrove-salt marsh ecotone over the past 250 years.

ABSTRACT: Climate change is driving the tropicalization of temperate ecosystems by shifting the range edges of numerous species poleward. Over the past few decades, mangroves have rapidly displaced salt marshes near multiple poleward mangrove range limits, including in northeast Florida. It is uncertain whether such mangrove expansions are due to anthropogenic climate change or natural climate variability. We combined historical accounts from books, personal journals, scientific articles, logbooks, photographs, and maps with climate data to show that the current ecotone between mangroves and salt marshes in northeast Florida has shifted between mangrove and salt marsh dominance at least 6 times between the late 1700s and 2017 due to decadal-scale fluctuations in the frequency and intensity of extreme cold events. Model projections of daily minimum temperature from 2000 through 2100 indicate an increase in annual minimum temperature by 0.5 °C/decade. Thus, although recent mangrove range expansion should indeed be placed into a broader historical context of an oscillating system, climate projections suggest that the recent trend may represent a more permanent regime shift due to the effects of climate change.

SUBMITTER: Cavanaugh KC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6815162 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Climate-driven regime shifts in a mangrove-salt marsh ecotone over the past 250 years.

Cavanaugh Kyle C KC Dangremond Emily M EM Doughty Cheryl L CL Williams A Park AP Parker John D JD Hayes Matthew A MA Rodriguez Wilfrid W Feller Ilka C IC

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20191007 43

Climate change is driving the tropicalization of temperate ecosystems by shifting the range edges of numerous species poleward. Over the past few decades, mangroves have rapidly displaced salt marshes near multiple poleward mangrove range limits, including in northeast Florida. It is uncertain whether such mangrove expansions are due to anthropogenic climate change or natural climate variability. We combined historical accounts from books, personal journals, scientific articles, logbooks, photog ...[more]

PMID: 31591236

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Project description:Wetland restoration provides remarkable opportunities to understand vegetation dynamics and to inform success of future projects through rigorous restoration experiments. Salt marsh restoration typically focuses on physical factors such as sediment dynamics and elevation. Despite many demonstrations of strong top-down effects on salt marshes, the potential for consumers to affect salt marsh restoration projects has rarely been quantified. Recently, major restoration projects at the Elkhorn Slough National Estuarine Research Reserve in central California, USA provided an opportunity to examine how herbivory influences restoration success. We quantified the strength of consumer effects by comparing caged to uncaged plantings, and compared effects among plant species and sites. We used camera traps to detect which herbivores were most common and how their abundance varied spatially. Beyond characterizing consumer effects, we also tested management strategies for reducing negative effects of herbivory at the restoration sites, including caging, mowing, and acoustic playbacks of predator sounds. We found extremely strong consumer effects at sites with extensive stands of exotic forbs upland of the high marsh; uncaged restoration plants suffered heavy herbivory and high mortality, while most caged plants survived. Brush rabbits (Sylvilagus bachmani) were by far the most frequent consumers of these high marsh plants. Our work thus provides the first evidence of mammal consumers affecting salt marsh restoration success. Mowing of tall exotic forb cover adjacent to the marsh at one restoration site greatly reduced consumption, and nearly all monitored plantings survived at a second restoration site where construction had temporarily eliminated upland cover. Playbacks of predator sounds did not significantly affect restoration plantings, but restoration efforts in marsh communities vulnerable to terrestrial herbivory may benefit from concurrent restoration of predator communities in the upland habitats surrounding the marsh. A landscape approach is thus critical for recognizing linkages between terrestrial and marine vegetation.

Dataset Information

Climate-driven regime shifts in a mangrove-salt marsh ecotone over the past 250 years.

Publications

Climate-driven regime shifts in a mangrove-salt marsh ecotone over the past 250 years.

Similar Datasets

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