ABSTRACT: RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE:Identifying patients who are likely to transfer from peritoneal dialysis (PD) to hemodialysis (HD) before transition could improve their subsequent care. This study developed a prediction tool for transition from PD to HD. STUDY DESIGN:Retrospective cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS:Adults initiating PD between January 2008 and December 2011, followed up through June 2015, for whom data were available in the US Renal Data System (USRDS). PREDICTORS:Clinical characteristics at PD initiation and peritonitis claims. OUTCOMES:Transfer to HD, with the competing outcomes of death and kidney transplantation. ANALYTICAL APPROACH:Outcomes were ascertained from USRDS treatment history files. Subdistribution hazards (competing-risk) models were fit using clinical characteristics at PD initiation. A nomogram was developed to classify patient risk at 1, 2, 3, and 4 years. These data were used to generate quartiles of HD transfer risk; this quartile score was incorporated into a cause-specific hazards model that additionally included a time-dependent variable for peritonitis. RESULTS:29,573 incident PD patients were followed up for a median of 21.6 (interquartile range, 9.0-42.3) months, during which 41.2% transferred to HD, 25.9% died, 17.1% underwent kidney transplantation, and the rest were followed up to the study end in June 2015. Claims for peritonitis were present in 11,733 (40.2%) patients. The proportion of patients still receiving PD decreased to <50% at 22.6 months and 14.2% at 5 years. Peritonitis was associated with a higher rate of HD transfer (HR, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.76-1.89; P < 0.001), as were higher quartile scores of HD transfer risk (HRs of 1.31 [95% CI, 1.25-1.37), 1.51 [95% CI, 1.45-1.58], and 1.78 [95% CI, 1.71-1.86] for quartiles 2, 3, and 4 compared to quartile 1 [P < 0.001 for all]). LIMITATIONS:Observational data, reliant on the Medical Evidence Report and Medicare claims. CONCLUSIONS:A large majority of the patients who initiated renal replacement therapy with PD discontinued this modality within 5 years. Transfer to HD was the most common outcome. Patient characteristics and comorbid diseases influenced the probability of HD transfer, death, and transplantation, as did episodes of peritonitis.
