Dataset Information

Forecasting the impact of diabetes mellitus on tuberculosis disease incidence and mortality in India.

ABSTRACT:

Background

In context of the rapidly expanding diabetes mellitus (DM) epidemic in India and slowly declining tuberculosis (TB) incidence, we aimed to estimate the past, current, and future impact of DM on TB epidemiology.

Methods

An age-structured TB-DM dynamical mathematical model was developed and analyzed to assess the DM-on-TB impact. The model was calibrated using a literature review and meta-analyses. The DM-on-TB impact was analyzed using population attributable fraction metrics. Sensitivity analyses were conducted by accommodating less conservative effect sizes for the TB-DM interactions, by factoring the age-dependence of the TB-DM association, and by assuming different TB disease incidence rate trajectories.

Results

In 1990, 11.4% (95% uncertainty interval (UI) = 6.3%-14.4%) of new TB disease incident cases were attributed to DM. This proportion increased to 21.9% (95% UI = 12.1%-26.4%) in 2017, and 33.3% (95% UI = 19.0%-44.1%) in 2050. Similarly, in 1990, 14.5% (95% UI = 9.5%-18.2%) of TB-related deaths were attributed to DM. This proportion increased to 28.9% (95% UI = 18.9%-34.1%) in 2017, and 42.8% (95% UI = 28.7%-53.1%) in 2050. The largest impacts originated from the effects of DM on TB disease progression and infectiousness. Sensitivity analyses suggested that the impact could be even greater.

Conclusions

The burgeoning DM epidemic is predicted to become a leading driver of TB disease incidence and mortality over the coming decades. By 2050, at least one-third of TB incidence and almost half of TB mortality in India will be attributed to DM. This is likely generalizable to other Asian Pacific countries with similar TB-DM burdens. Targeting the impact of the increasing DM burden on TB control is critical to achieving the goal of TB elimination by 2050.

SUBMITTER: Awad SF

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6815875 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Forecasting the impact of diabetes mellitus on tuberculosis disease incidence and mortality in India.

Awad Susanne F SF Huangfu Peijue P Ayoub Houssein H HH Pearson Fiona F Dargham Soha R SR Critchley Julia A JA Abu-Raddad Laith J LJ

Journal of global health 20191201 2

<h4>Background</h4>In context of the rapidly expanding diabetes mellitus (DM) epidemic in India and slowly declining tuberculosis (TB) incidence, we aimed to estimate the past, current, and future impact of DM on TB epidemiology.<h4>Methods</h4>An age-structured TB-DM dynamical mathematical model was developed and analyzed to assess the DM-on-TB impact. The model was calibrated using a literature review and meta-analyses. The DM-on-TB impact was analyzed using population attributable fraction me ...[more]

PMID: 31673336

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Project description:RationaleThe evidence regarding the potential health benefits of nut consumption among individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus is limited.ObjectiveTo examine intake of total and specific types of nuts, including tree nuts and peanuts, in relation to subsequent risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), including coronary heart disease and stroke, and all-cause and cause-specific mortality among individuals with diabetes mellitus.Methods and resultsThis prospective analysis included 16 217 men and women with diabetes mellitus at baseline or diagnosed during follow-up (Nurses' Health Study: 1980-2014, Health Professionals Follow-Up Study: 1986-2014). Nut consumption was assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire and updated every 2 to 4 years. During 223 682 and 254 923 person-years of follow-up, there were 3336 incident CVD cases and 5682 deaths, respectively. Higher total nut consumption was associated with a lower risk of CVD incidence and mortality. The multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios (95% CIs) for participants who consumed 5 or more servings of total nuts per week (1 serving=28 g), compared with those who consumed <1 serving per month, were 0.83 (0.71-0.98; P trend=0.01) for total CVD incidence, 0.80 (0.67-0.96; P trend=0.005) for coronary heart disease incidence, 0.66 (0.52-0.84; P trend <0.001) for CVD mortality, and 0.69 (0.61-0.77; P trend <0.001) for all-cause mortality. Total nut consumption was not significantly associated with risk of stroke incidence or cancer mortality. For specific types of nuts, higher tree nut consumption was associated with lower risk of total CVD, coronary heart disease incidence, and mortality because of CVD, cancer, and all causes, whereas peanut consumption was associated with lower all-cause mortality only (all P trend <0.001). In addition, compared with participants who did not change the consumption of total nuts from pre- to post-diabetes mellitus diagnosis, participants who increased consumption of total nuts after diabetes mellitus diagnosis had an 11% lower risk of CVD, a 15% lower coronary heart disease risk, a 25% lower CVD mortality, and a 27% lower all-cause mortality. The associations persisted in subgroup analyses stratified by sex/cohort, body mass index at diabetes mellitus diagnosis, smoking status, diabetes mellitus duration, nut consumption before diabetes mellitus diagnosis, or diet quality.ConclusionsHigher consumption of nuts, especially tree nuts, is associated with lower CVD incidence and mortality among participants with diabetes mellitus. These data provide novel evidence that supports the recommendation of incorporating nuts into healthy dietary patterns for the prevention of CVD complications and premature deaths among individuals with diabetes mellitus.

Dataset Information

Forecasting the impact of diabetes mellitus on tuberculosis disease incidence and mortality in India.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Forecasting the impact of diabetes mellitus on tuberculosis disease incidence and mortality in India.

Similar Datasets

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