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Heterogeneity in potential impact and cost-effectiveness of ETEC and Shigella vaccination in four sub-Saharan African countries.

ABSTRACT: Diarrheal disease burden has become more heterogenous in low- and lower middle-income countries as access to clean water, sanitation and health care has increased in wealthier urban populations. Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) and Shigella are among the top five causes of diarrheal mortality in children living in sub-Saharan Africa. Here, we explored how accounting for subnational and economic heterogeneity in ETEC and Shigella disease burden affects projected vaccine impact and cost-effectiveness of standalone ETEC and Shigella vaccines during the first decade after introduction in four sub-Saharan African countries. We developed dynamic models for provincial areas and socioeconomic subpopulations of children in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Kenya, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. We estimated deaths and morbidity due to ETEC and Shigella diarrhea plus additional deaths from other infectious diseases attributable to ETEC- and Shigella-induced stunting. We analyzed cost-effectiveness using Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs) with Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) and Moderate-and-Severe Diarrheal episodes (MSD) averted as denominators. Other infectious disease deaths due to induced stunting accounted for 9-28% and 9-32% of the total provincial level ETEC and Shigella disease burden, respectively, across these four countries from years 2025 to 2034. Our results indicated that the lowest and most cost-effective provincial DALYs averted ICERs were below $600 and $500/DALY averted for ETEC and Shigella vaccination, respectively in Zimbabwe. ICERs were the highest in Zambia and Kenya, where all provincial ICERs where above $2000/DALY. The highest national and provincial MSD averted ICERs were in DRC, while the lowest were in Kenya and Zimbabwe. Vaccinations were most cost-effective in averting DALYs in lower wealth subpopulations living in the highest burden provincial areas. Our approach focused on subnational heterogeneity in ETEC and Shigella burden and vaccination access found that impact and cost-effectiveness were more favorable if vaccinations reach the most vulnerable children in underserved provinces.

SUBMITTER: Anderson JD

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6819873 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Heterogeneity in potential impact and cost-effectiveness of ETEC and Shigella vaccination in four sub-Saharan African countries.

Anderson John D JD Muhib Farzana F Rheingans Richard R Wierzba Thomas T

Vaccine: X 20190920

Diarrheal disease burden has become more heterogenous in low- and lower middle-income countries as access to clean water, sanitation and health care has increased in wealthier urban populations. Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) and Shigella are among the top five causes of diarrheal mortality in children living in sub-Saharan Africa. Here, we explored how accounting for subnational and economic heterogeneity in ETEC and Shigella disease burden affects projected vaccine impac ...[more]

PMID: 31687662

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Project description:While diarrhea mortality in children has declined over the last two decades, there has been a slower decline in diarrheal episodes. Repeated diarrheal episodes are associated with childhood stunting, which leads to increased mortality risk from infectious diseases. Vaccine candidates are under development for enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli [ETEC] and Shigella, important enteric pathogens in children in low income countries. These future vaccines could significantly reduce diarrheal burden, prevent ETEC- and Shigella-induced stunting, and stunting-associated mortality. We developed a cost-effectiveness model for two putative standalone ETEC and Shigella vaccine candidates to evaluate vaccine impact on mortality, morbidity, stunting, and stunting-associated deaths from other infectious diseases. We modeled impact over the first ten years after vaccine introduction in children under five years old living in 79 low and low-middle income countries. ETEC and Shigella diarrhea would cause an estimated 239,300 [95% UL: 179,700-309,800] and 340,300 [256,500-440,800] child deaths, respectively, from years 2025 to 2034. Most of these deaths would occur in AFRO countries. ETEC and Shigella moderate-to-severe diarrheal episodes would result in over 13.7 [8.4-19.0] and 21.4 [13.1-29.8] million stunted children, respectively. Introducing ETEC or Shigella vaccine each with 60% efficacy could prevent 92,000 [61,000-129,000] ETEC and 126,600 [84,000-179,000] Shigella direct deaths and 21,400 [11,300-34,800] ETEC- and 34,200 [18,000-56,000] Shigella-induced stunting deaths. ETEC ICERs ranged from $2172/DALY [1457-4369] in AFRO to $19,172/DALY [12,665-39,503] in EURO. Shigella ICERs ranged from $952/DALY [632-2001] in EMRO to $640,316/DALY [434,311-1,297,192] in EURO. Limitations of this analysis include uncertainty of vaccine efficacy, duration of protection, and vaccine price. Inclusion of other infectious disease mortality due to stunting provides a more accurate assessment of total ETEC and Shigella disease burden and increased the projected impact and cost-effectiveness of vaccination. Introducing vaccines only in high burden countries and regions could substantially reduce cost without substantially reducing impact.

Project description:BackgroundUntreated syphilis in pregnancy is associated with adverse clinical outcomes for the infant. Most syphilis infections occur in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where coverage of antenatal screening for syphilis is inadequate. Recently introduced point-of-care syphilis tests have high accuracy and demonstrate potential to increase coverage of antenatal screening. However, country-specific cost-effectiveness data for these tests are limited. The objective of this analysis was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of antenatal syphilis screening for 43 countries in SSA and estimate the impact of universal screening on stillbirths, neonatal deaths, congenital syphilis, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted.Methods and findingsThe decision analytic model reflected the perspective of the national health care system and was based on the sensitivity (86%) and specificity (99%) reported for the immunochromatographic strip (ICS) test. Clinical outcomes of infants born to syphilis-infected mothers on the end points of stillbirth, neonatal death, and congenital syphilis were obtained from published sources. Treatment was assumed to consist of three injections of benzathine penicillin. Country-specific inputs included the antenatal prevalence of syphilis, annual number of live births, proportion of women with at least one antenatal care visit, per capita gross national income, and estimated hourly nurse wages. In all 43 sub-Saharan African countries analyzed, syphilis screening is highly cost-effective, with an average cost/DALY averted of US$11 (range: US$2-US$48). Screening remains highly cost-effective even if the average prevalence falls from the current rate of 3.1% (range: 0.6%-14.0%) to 0.038% (range: 0.002%-0.113%). Universal antenatal screening of pregnant women in clinics may reduce the annual number of stillbirths by up to 64,000, neonatal deaths by up to 25,000, and annual incidence of congenital syphilis by up to 32,000, and avert up to 2.6 million DALYs at an estimated annual direct medical cost of US$20.8 million.ConclusionsUse of ICS tests for antenatal syphilis screening is highly cost-effective in SSA. Substantial reduction in DALYs can be achieved at a relatively modest budget impact. In SSA, antenatal programs should expand access to syphilis screening using the ICS test. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Project description:BackgroundCurrent prophylactic vaccines against human papillomavirus (HPV) target two of the most oncogenic types, HPV-16 and -18, which contribute to roughly 70% of cervical cancers worldwide. Second-generation HPV vaccines include a 9-valent vaccine, which targets five additional oncogenic HPV types (i.e., 31, 33, 45, 52, and 58) that contribute to another 15-30% of cervical cancer cases. The objective of this study was to determine a range of vaccine costs for which the 9-valent vaccine would be cost-effective in comparison to the current vaccines in two less developed countries (i.e., Kenya and Uganda).Methods and findingsThe analysis was performed using a natural history disease simulation model of HPV and cervical cancer. The mathematical model simulates individual women from an early age and tracks health events and resource use as they transition through clinically-relevant health states over their lifetime. Epidemiological data on HPV prevalence and cancer incidence were used to adapt the model to Kenya and Uganda. Health benefit, or effectiveness, from HPV vaccination was measured in terms of life expectancy, and costs were measured in international dollars (I$). The incremental cost of the 9-valent vaccine included the added cost of the vaccine counterbalanced by costs averted from additional cancer cases prevented. All future costs and health benefits were discounted at an annual rate of 3% in the base case analysis. We conducted sensitivity analyses to investigate how infection with multiple HPV types, unidentifiable HPV types in cancer cases, and cross-protection against non-vaccine types could affect the potential cost range of the 9-valent vaccine. In the base case analysis in Kenya, we found that vaccination with the 9-valent vaccine was very cost-effective (i.e., had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio below per-capita GDP), compared to the current vaccines provided the added cost of the 9-valent vaccine did not exceed I$9.7 per vaccinated girl. To be considered very cost-effective, the added cost per vaccinated girl could go up to I$5.2 and I$16.2 in the worst-case and best-case scenarios, respectively. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of three times per-capita GDP where the 9-valent vaccine would be considered cost-effective, the thresholds of added costs associated with the 9-valent vaccine were I$27.3, I$14.5 and I$45.3 per vaccinated girl for the base case, worst-case and best-case scenarios, respectively. In Uganda, vaccination with the 9-valent vaccine was very cost-effective when the added cost of the 9-valent vaccine did not exceed I$8.3 per vaccinated girl. To be considered very cost-effective, the added cost per vaccinated girl could go up to I$4.5 and I$13.7 in the worst-case and best-case scenarios, respectively. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of three times per-capita GDP, the thresholds of added costs associated with the 9-valent vaccine were I$23.4, I$12.6 and I$38.4 per vaccinated girl for the base case, worst-case and best-case scenarios, respectively.ConclusionsThis study provides a threshold range of incremental costs associated with the 9-valent HPV vaccine that would make it a cost-effective intervention in comparison to currently available HPV vaccines in Kenya and Uganda. These prices represent a 71% and 61% increase over the price offered to the GAVI Alliance ($5 per dose) for the currently available 2- and 4-valent vaccines in Kenya and Uganda, respectively. Despite evidence of cost-effectiveness, critical challenges around affordability and feasibility of HPV vaccination and other competing needs in low-resource settings such as Kenya and Uganda remain.

Project description:Hepatitis B virus (HBV) places a substantial health burden on Africa. Here, we investigated genetic diversity of HBV variants circulating in 4 countries of sub-Saharan Africa using archived samples. In total, 1492 plasma samples were tested from HIV-infected individuals and pregnant women, among which 143 (9.6%) were PCR-positive for HBV DNA (Côte d'Ivoire, 70/608 [11.5%]; Ghana, 13/444 [2.9%]; Cameroon, 33/303 [10.9%]; and Uganda, 27/137 [19.7%]).Phylogenetic analysis of the S-gene sequences identified HBV genotypes E (HBV/E, n=96) and A (HBV/A, n=47) distributed as follows: 87% of HBV/E and 13% of HBV/A in Côte d'Ivoire; 100% of HBV/E in Ghana; 67% of HBV/E and 33% of HBV/A in Cameroon; and 100% of HBV/A in Uganda. The average and maximal nucleotide distances among HBV/E sequences were 1.9% and 6.4%, respectively, suggesting a greater genetic diversity for this genotype than previously reported (p<0.001). HBV/A strains were classified into subgenotypes HBV/A1, HBV/A2 and HBV/A3. In Uganda, 93% of HBV/A strains belonged to HBV/A1 whereas HBV/A3 was the only subgenotype of HBV/A found in Cameroon. In Côte d'Ivoire, HBV/A strains were classified as HBV/A1 (11.1%), HBV/A2 (33.3%) and HBV/A3 (55.6%). Phylogeographic analysis of the sequences available from Africa supported earlier suggestions on the origin of HBV/A1, HBV/A2 and HBV/A3 in East, South and West/Central Africa, respectively. Using predicted amino acid sequences, hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) was classified into serotype ayw4 in 93% of HBV/E strains and adw2 in 68% of HBV/A strains. Also, 7.7% of the sequences carried substitutions in HBsAg associated with immune escape.The observations of pan-African and global dissemination of HBV/A1 and HBV/A2, and the circulation of HBV/E and HBV/A3 almost exclusively in West and Central Africa suggest a more recent increase in prevalence in Africa of HBV/E and HBV/A3 compared to HBV/A1 and HBV/A2. The broad genetic heterogeneity of HBsAg detected here may impact the efficacy of prevention and control efforts in sub-Saharan Africa.

Project description:BackgroundStimulated by the economic challenges faced by many sub-Saharan African countries and the changes in the rotavirus burden across these countries, this study aimed to inform the decision of health policy makers of eight sub-Saharan countries, who are yet to introduce the rotavirus vaccine as of Dec 31, 2020, on the health economic consequences of the introduction of the vaccine in terms of the costs and benefits.MethodsWe did a cost-benefit analysis using a simulation-based decision-analytic model for children aged younger than 1 year, who were followed up to 259 weeks, in the Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Guinea, Somalia, and South Sudan. Data were collected and analysed between Jan 13, 2020, and Dec 11, 2020. Cost-effectiveness analysis and budget impact analysis were done as secondary analyses. Four rotavirus vaccinations (Rotarix, Rotateq, Rotavac, and Rotasiil) were compared with no vaccination. The primary outcome was disability-adjusted life-years averted, converted to monetary terms. The secondary outcomes include rotavirus gastroenteritis averted, and rotavirus vaccine-associated intussusception. The primary economic evaluation measure was the benefit-cost ratio (BCR).FindingsFor the modelling period, Jan 1, 2021, to Dec 31, 2030, we found that the benefits of introducing the rotavirus vaccine outweighed the costs in all eight countries, with Chad and the Central African Republic having the highest BCR of 19·42 and 11·36, respectively. Guinea had the lowest BCR of 3·26 amongst the Gavi-eligible countries. Equatorial Guinea and Gabon had a narrow BCR of 1·86 and 2·06, respectively. Rotarix was the optimal choice for all the Gavi-eligible countries; Rotasiil and Rotavac were the optimal choices for Equatorial Guinea and Gabon, respectively.InterpretationIntroducing the rotavirus vaccine in all eight countries, but with caution in Equatorial Guinea and Gabon, would be worthwhile. With the narrow BCR for Equatorial Guinea and Gabon, cautious, pragmatic, and stringent measures need to be employed to ensure optimal health benefits and cost minimisation of the vaccine introduction. The final decision to introduce the rotavirus vaccine should be preceded by comparing its BCR to the BCRs of other health-care projects.FundingCopenhagen Consensus Center and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

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Heterogeneity in potential impact and cost-effectiveness of ETEC and Shigella vaccination in four sub-Saharan African countries.

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Heterogeneity in potential impact and cost-effectiveness of ETEC and <i>Shigella</i> vaccination in four sub-Saharan African countries.

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