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The folded X-pattern is not necessarily a statistical signature of decision confidence.

ABSTRACT: Recent studies have traced the neural correlates of confidence in perceptual choices using statistical signatures of confidence. The most widely used statistical signature is the folded X-pattern, which was derived from a standard model of confidence assuming an objective definition of confidence as the posterior probability of making the correct choice given the evidence. The folded X-pattern entails that confidence as the subjective probability of being correct equals the probability of 0.75 if the stimulus in neutral about the choice options, increases with discriminability of the stimulus in correct trials, and decreases with discriminability in incorrect trials. Here, we show that the standard model of confidence is a special case in which there is no reliable trial-by-trial evidence about discriminability itself. According to a more general model, if there is enough evidence about discriminability, objective confidence is characterised by different pattern: For both correct and incorrect choices, confidence increases with discriminability. In addition, we demonstrate the consequence if discriminability is varied in discrete steps within the standard model: confidence in choices about neutral stimuli is no longer .75. Overall, identifying neural correlates of confidence by presupposing the folded X-pattern as a statistical signature of confidence is not legitimate.

SUBMITTER: Rausch M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6822779 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The folded X-pattern is not necessarily a statistical signature of decision confidence.

Rausch Manuel M Zehetleitner Michael M

PLoS computational biology 20191021 10

Recent studies have traced the neural correlates of confidence in perceptual choices using statistical signatures of confidence. The most widely used statistical signature is the folded X-pattern, which was derived from a standard model of confidence assuming an objective definition of confidence as the posterior probability of making the correct choice given the evidence. The folded X-pattern entails that confidence as the subjective probability of being correct equals the probability of 0.75 i ...[more]

PMID: 31634359

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Project description:Protein-ligand docking programs can generate a large number of possible binding orientations for each ligand candidate. The challenge is to identify the orientations closest to the native binding mode using a scoring method. Many different scoring functions have been developed for protein-ligand scoring, but their performance on binding mode prediction is often target-dependent. In this study, a statistical approach was employed to provide a confidence measure of scoring performance in finding close to the correct docked ligand orientations. It exploits the fact that the scores provided by an adequately performing scoring function generally improve as the ligand binding modes get closer to the correct native orientation. For such cases, the correlation coefficient of scores versus distances is expected to be highest when the most native-like orientation is used as a reference. This correlation coefficient, called the correlation-based score (CBScore), was used as an indicator of how far the docked pose was from the native orientation. The correlation between the original scores and CBScores as well as the range of CBScores were found to be good measures of scoring performance. They were combined into a single quantity, called the scoring confidence index. High values of the scoring confidence index were indicative of pronounced and relatively smooth binding energy landscapes with easily discernable global minima, resulting in reliable binding mode predictions. Low values of this index reflected rugged energy landscapes making the prediction of the correct binding mode very difficult and often unreliable. The diagnostic ability of the scoring confidence index was tested on a non-redundant set of 50 protein-ligand complexes scored with three commonly employed scoring functions: AffiScore, DrugScore and X-Score. Binding mode predictions were found to be three times more reliable for complexes with scoring confidence indices in the upper half than for cases with values in the lower half of the resulting range of 0-1.6. This new confidence measure of scoring performance is expected to be a valuable tool for virtual screening applications.

Dataset Information

The folded X-pattern is not necessarily a statistical signature of decision confidence.

Publications

The folded X-pattern is not necessarily a statistical signature of decision confidence.

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