Dataset Information

Predicting chance of liver transplantation for pediatric wait-list candidates.

ABSTRACT: Information about wait-list time has been reported as one of the single most frequently asked questions by individuals awaiting a transplant but data regarding wait-list time have not been processed in a useful way for pediatric candidates. To predict chance of receiving a DDLT, we identified 6471 pediatric (<18 years), non status-1A, liver-only transplant candidates between 2006 and 2017 from the SRTR. Cox regression with shared frailty for DSA level effect was used to model the association of blood type, weight, allocation PELD and MELD, and DSA with chance of DDLT. Jackknife technique was used for validation. Median (interquartile range) wait-list time was 100 (34-309) days. Non-O Blood type, higher PELD/MELD score at listing, and DSA were associated with increased chance of DDLT, while age 1-5 years and 10-18 years was associated with lower chance of DDLT (P < 0.001 for all variables). Our model accurately predicted chance of transplant (C-statistic = 0.68) and was able to predict DDLT at specific follow-up times (eg, 3 months). This model can serve as the basis for an online tool that would provide useful information for pediatric wait-list candidates.

SUBMITTER: Luo X

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6824918 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting chance of liver transplantation for pediatric wait-list candidates.

Luo Xun X Mogul Douglas B DB Massie Allan B AB Ishaque Tanveen T Bridges John F P JFP Segev Dorry L DL

Pediatric transplantation 20190716 7

Information about wait-list time has been reported as one of the single most frequently asked questions by individuals awaiting a transplant but data regarding wait-list time have not been processed in a useful way for pediatric candidates. To predict chance of receiving a DDLT, we identified 6471 pediatric (<18 years), non status-1A, liver-only transplant candidates between 2006 and 2017 from the SRTR. Cox regression with shared frailty for DSA level effect was used to model the association of ...[more]

PMID: 31313464

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Project description:ImportanceFemale liver transplant candidates experience higher rates of wait list mortality than male candidates. Frailty is a critical determinant of mortality in patients with cirrhosis, but how frailty differs between women and men is unknown.ObjectiveTo determine whether frailty is associated with the gap between women and men in mortality among patients with cirrhosis awaiting liver transplantation.Design, setting, and participantsThis prospective cohort study enrolled 1405 adults with cirrhosis awaiting liver transplant without hepatocellular carcinoma seen during 3436 ambulatory clinic visits at 9 US liver transplant centers. Data were collected from January 1, 2012, to October 1, 2019, and analyzed from August 30, 2019, to October 30, 2020.ExposuresAt outpatient evaluation, the Liver Frailty Index (LFI) score was calculated (grip strength, chair stands, and balance).Main outcomes and measuresThe risk of wait list mortality was quantified using Cox proportional hazards regression by frailty. Mediation analysis was used to quantify the contribution of frailty to the gap in wait list mortality between women and men.ResultsOf 1405 participants, 578 (41%) were women and 827 (59%) were men (median age, 58 [interquartile range (IQR), 50-63] years). Women and men had similar median scores on the laboratory-based Model for End-stage Liver Disease incorporating sodium levels (MELDNa) (women, 18 [IQR, 14-23]; men, 18 [IQR, 15-22]), but baseline LFI was higher in women (mean [SD], 4.12 [0.85] vs 4.00 [0.82]; P = .005). Women displayed worse balance of less than 30 seconds (145 [25%] vs 149 [18%]; P = .003), worse sex-adjusted grip (mean [SD], -0.31 [1.08] vs -0.16 [1.08] kg; P = .01), and fewer chair stands per second (median, 0.35 [IQR, 0.23-0.46] vs 0.37 [IQR, 0.25-0.49]; P = .04). In unadjusted mixed-effects models, LFI was 0.15 (95% CI, 0.06-0.23) units higher in women than men (P = .001). After adjustment for other variables associated with frailty, LFI was 0.16 (95% CI, 0.08-0.23) units higher in women than men (P < .001). In unadjusted regression, women experienced a 34% (95% CI, 3%-74%) increased risk of wait list mortality than men (P = .03). Sequential covariable adjustment did not alter the association between sex and wait list mortality; however, adjustment for LFI attenuated the mortality gap between women and men. In mediation analysis, an estimated 13.0% (IQR, 0.5%-132.0%) of the gender gap in wait list mortality was mediated by frailty.Conclusions and relevanceThese findings demonstrate that women with cirrhosis display worse frailty scores than men despite similar MELDNa scores. The higher risk of wait list mortality that women experienced appeared to be explained in part by frailty.

Project description:Given the increasing incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and regional variation in liver transplantation (LT) rates for HCC, we investigated temporal and geographic disparities in LT and wait-list dropout. LT candidates receiving Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) exception from 2005 to 2014 were identified from the United Network for Organ Sharing database (n = 14,320). Temporal differences were compared across 2 eras (2005-2009 and 2010-2014). Regional groups were defined based on median wait time as long-wait region (LWR; regions 1, 5, and 9), mid-wait region (MWR; regions 2, 4, 6, 7, and 8), and short-wait region (SWR; regions 3, 10, and 11). Fine and Gray competing risk regression estimated risk of wait-list dropout as hazard ratios (HRs). The cumulative probability of LT within 3 years was 70% in the LWR versus 81% in the MWR and 91% in the SWR (P < 0.001). From 2005-2009 to 2010-2014, median time to LT increased by 6.0 months (5.6 to 11.6 months) in the LWR compared with 3.8 months (2.6 to 6.4 months) in the MWR and 1.3 months (1.0 to 2.3 months) in the SWR. The cumulative probability of dropout within 3 years was 24% in the LWR versus 16% in the MWR and 8% in the SWR (P < 0.001). From 2005-2009 to 2010-2014, the LWR also had the greatest increase in probability of dropout. Risk of dropout was increased in the LWR (HR, 3.5; P < 0.001) and the MWR (HR, 2.2; P < 0.001) compared with the SWR, and year of MELD exception 2010-2014 (HR, 1.9; P < 0.001) compared with 2005-2009. From 2005-2009 to 2010-2014, intention-to-treat 3-year survival decreased from 69% to 63% in the LWR (P < 0.001), 72% to 69% in the MWR (P = 0.008), and remained at 74% in the SWR (P = 0.48). In conclusion, we observed a significant increase in wait-list dropout in HCC patients in recent years that disproportionately impacted LWR patients. Widening geographical disparities call for changes in allocation policy as well as enhanced efforts at increasing organ donation and utilization.

Project description:In the context of an aging end-stage renal disease population with multiple comorbid conditions, transplantation professionals face challenges in evaluating the global health of patients awaiting kidney transplantation. Functional status might be useful for identifying which patients will derive a survival benefit from transplantation versus dialysis.Retrospective cohort study of wait-listed patients using data for functional status from a national dialysis provider linked to United Network for Organ Sharing registry data.Adult kidney transplantation candidates added to the waiting list between 2000 and 2006.Physical Functioning scale of the Medical Outcomes Study 36-Item Short Form Health Survey, analyzed as a time-varying covariate.Kidney transplantation; survival benefit of transplantation versus remaining wait-listed.We used multivariable Cox regression to assess the association between physical function with study outcomes. In survival benefit analyses, transplantation status was modeled as a time-varying covariate.The cohort comprised 19,242 kidney transplantation candidates (median age, 51 years; 36% black race) receiving maintenance dialysis. Candidates in the lowest baseline Physical Functioning score quartile were more likely to be inactivated (adjusted HR vs highest quartile, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.21-1.39) and less likely to undergo transplantation (adjusted HR vs highest quartile, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.61-0.68). After transplantation, worse Physical Functioning score was associated with shorter 3-year survival (84% vs 92% for the lowest vs highest function quartiles). However, compared to dialysis, transplantation was associated with a statistically significant survival benefit by 9 months for patients in every function quartile.Functional status is self-reported.Even patients with low function appear to live longer with kidney transplantation versus dialysis. For wait-listed patients, global health measures such as functional status may be more useful in counseling patients about the probability of transplantation than in identifying who will derive a survival benefit from it.

Dataset Information

Predicting chance of liver transplantation for pediatric wait-list candidates.

Publications

Predicting chance of liver transplantation for pediatric wait-list candidates.

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