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Validation of a score chart to predict the risk of chronic mesenteric ischemia and development of an updated score chart.

ABSTRACT: Background and objective:The objective of this article is to externally validate and update a recently published score chart for chronic mesenteric ischemia (CMI). Methods:A multicenter prospective cohort analysis was conducted of 666 CMI-suspected patients referred to two Dutch specialized CMI centers. Multidisciplinary consultation resulted in expert-based consensus diagnosis after which CMI consensus patients were treated. A definitive diagnosis of CMI was established if successful treatment resulted in durable symptom relief. The absolute CMI risk was calculated and discriminative ability of the original chart was assessed by the c-statistic in the validation cohort. Thereafter the original score chart was updated based on the performance in the combined original and validation cohort with inclusion of celiac artery (CA) stenosis cause. Results:In 8% of low-risk patients, 39% of intermediate-risk patients and 94% of high-risk patients of the validation cohort, CMI was diagnosed. Discriminative ability of the original model was acceptable (c-statistic 0.79). The total score of the updated chart ranged from 0 to 28 points (low risk 19% absolute CMI risk, intermediate risk 45%, and high risk 92%). The discriminative ability of the updated chart was slightly better (c-statistic 0.80). Conclusion:The CMI prediction model performs and discriminates well in the validation cohort. The updated score chart has excellent discriminative ability and is useful in clinical decision making.

SUBMITTER: van Dijk LJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6826523 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Validation of a score chart to predict the risk of chronic mesenteric ischemia and development of an updated score chart.

van Dijk Louisa Jd LJ van Noord Desirée D Geelkerken Robert H RH Harki Jihan J Berendsen Sophie A SA de Vries Annemarie C AC Moelker Adriaan A Vergouwe Yvonne Y Verhagen Hence Jm HJ Kolkman Jeroen J JJ Bruno Marco J MJ

United European gastroenterology journal 20190604 9

<h4>Background and objective</h4>The objective of this article is to externally validate and update a recently published score chart for chronic mesenteric ischemia (CMI).<h4>Methods</h4>A multicenter prospective cohort analysis was conducted of 666 CMI-suspected patients referred to two Dutch specialized CMI centers. Multidisciplinary consultation resulted in expert-based consensus diagnosis after which CMI consensus patients were treated. A definitive diagnosis of CMI was established if succes ...[more]

PMID: 31700639

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Project description:This This Dutch Mesenteric Ischemia Study group consists of: Ron Balm, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam Gert Jan de Borst, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht Juliette T Blauw, Medisch Spectrum Twente, Enschede Marco J Bruno, Erasmus MC University Medical Center, Rotterdam Olaf J Bakker, St Antonius Hospital, Nieuwegein Louisa JD van Dijk, Erasmus MC University Medical Center, Rotterdam Hessel CJL Buscher, Gelre Hospitals, Apeldoorn Bram Fioole, Maasstad Hospital, Rotterdam Robert H Geelkerken, Medisch Spectrum Twente, Enschede Jaap F Hamming, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden Jihan Harki, Erasmus MC University Medical Center, Rotterdam Daniel AF van den Heuvel, St Antonius Hospital, Nieuwegein Eline S van Hattum, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht Jan Willem Hinnen, Jeroen Bosch Hospital, 's-Hertogenbosch Jeroen J Kolkman, Medisch Spectrum Twente, Enschede Maarten J van der Laan, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen Kaatje Lenaerts, Maastricht University Medical Center, Maastricht Adriaan Moelker, Erasmus MC University Medical Center, Rotterdam Desirée van Noord, Franciscus Gasthuis & Vlietland, Rotterdam Maikel P Peppelenbosch, Erasmus MC University Medical Center, Rotterdam André S van Petersen, Bernhoven Hospital, Uden Pepijn Rijnja, Medisch Spectrum Twente, Enschede Peter J van der Schaar, St Antonius Hospital, Nieuwegein Luke G Terlouw, Erasmus MC University Medical Center, Rotterdam Hence JM Verhagen, Erasmus MC University Medical Center, Rotterdam Jean Paul PM de Vries, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen Dammis Vroegindeweij, Maasstad Hospital, Rotterdam review provides an overview on the clinical management of chronic mesenteric ischemia (CMI). CMI is defined as insufficient blood supply to the gastrointestinal tract, most often caused by atherosclerotic stenosis of one or more mesenteric arteries. Patients classically present with postprandial abdominal pain and weight loss. However, patients may present with, atypically, symptoms such as abdominal discomfort, nausea, vomiting, diarrhea or constipation. Early consideration and diagnosis of CMI is important to timely treat, to improve quality of life and to prevent acute-on-chronic mesenteric ischemia. The diagnosis of CMI is based on the triad of clinical symptoms, radiological evaluation of the mesenteric vasculature and if available, functional assessment of mucosal ischemia. Multidisciplinary consensus on the diagnosis of CMI is of paramount importance to adequately select patients for treatment. Patients with a consensus diagnosis of single-vessel or multi-vessel atherosclerotic CMI are preferably treated with endovascular revascularization.

Project description:BackgroundLaparoscopic aortomesenteric bypass may be performed to treat the chronic mesenteric ischemia patients who are not suitable for endovascular treatment. This study presents an initial experience with a limited series of laparoscopic mesenteric artery revascularization for the treatment of mesenteric ischemia.MethodsChronic mesenteric ischemia (CMI) patients with previous unsuccessful endovascular treatment or with arterial occlusion and extensive calcification precluding safe endovascular treatment were offered laparoscopic mesenteric revascularization. From October 2015 until November 2018, nine patients with CMI underwent laparoscopic revascularization. In addition to demographic data and perioperative results of the treatment, graft patency was assessed with Duplex ultrasound at 1, 3, 6 and 12 months, and annually thereafter. A descriptive analysis of the data was performed.ResultsAll bypasses were constructed with an 8 mm ring enforced expanded polytetrafluoroethylene graft in a retrograde fashion (from infrarenal aorta or iliac artery) to either superior mesenteric artery or splenic artery (2 cases). Median operation time was 356 mins (range 247-492 mins). Five patients had a history of unsuccessful endovascular treatment. Laparoscopic technical success was 78%, and the primary open conversion rate was 22%. All laparoscopic revascularization procedures remained patent after discharge during a median follow-up time of 26 months (range 18-49 months). The primary graft patency at 30 days was 78%. Primary assisted, and secondary graft patency was 78% and 100%, respectively. Median weight gain was 2 kg (range 2-18 kg), and all patients achieved relief from postprandial pain and nausea. No mortality was observed during the follow-up period.ConclusionLaparoscopic aortomesenteric revascularization procedures for chronic mesenteric ischemia are feasible but require careful patient selection. These procedures should only be performed at referral centers by vascular surgeons with prior experience in laparoscopic vascular surgery.

Project description:BackgroundLittle is known about the microcirculatory alterations in patients with chronic mesenteric ischemia (CMI). We hypothesized that patients with CMI have an impaired microcirculatory function and show an oral microcirculatory response after caloric challenge compared to healthy controls.MethodsAll patients and controls received the standard workup for CMI. Sublingual micro-circulation was evaluated before (T0) and 20 minutes after (T1) feeding. The total vessel density (TVD; mm/mm2), perfused vessel density (PVD; mm/mm2), proportion of perfused vessels (PPV; %) and microvascular flow index (MFI; AU) were assessed.ResultsWe included 12 patients (63.2 years [IQR 48.8-70.4 years], 67% males) and 12 controls (32.7 years [IQR 27.7-38.1 years], 42% males). At baseline, patients with CMI had a decreased PPV of the sublingual small vessels (median 84.8% vs 95.7%, P=0.006), PPV of all vessels (PPV median 85.4% vs 95.3%, P=0.007) and microvascular flow index of all vessels (MFIa; median 3.00 vs 2.80, P=0.039) compared to healthy controls. After caloric challenge, PVD increased significantly in both small vessels (perfused vessel density of the small vessels [PVDs]) and all vessels (perfused vessel density of all vessels [PVDa]; PVDs [T0]) median 16.3 [IQR 13.3-22.1] vs [T1] median 19.9 [IQR 14.2-26.2], P=0.008; PVDa [T0] median 19.1 [IQR 16.2-23.6] vs [T1] median 22.2 [IQR 16.5-28.9], P=0.02; proportion of perfused vessels of the small vessels (PPVs; [T0] median 84.8% [IQR 75.3-90.4] vs [T1] median 91.0% [IQR 80.1-93.8], P=0.010). In contrast, no significant changes in microcirculatory parameters were observed after caloric challenge in healthy controls.ConclusionPatients with CMI have an impaired sublingual microcirculation at baseline and show a significant response in the sublingual microcirculation after caloric challenge, whereas healthy controls have a normal microcirculation at baseline and show no reactive response upon a caloric challenge as seen in CMI patients. Sublingual microcirculation visualization may offer a rapid noninvasive method to identify patients at risk for having CMI.

Project description:Importance:Predicting chronic disease incidence for the population provides a comprehensive picture to health policy makers of their jurisdictions' overall future chronic disease burden. However, no population-based risk algorithm exists for estimating the risk of first major chronic disease. Objective:To develop and validate the Chronic Disease Population Risk Tool (CDPoRT), a population risk algorithm that predicts the 10-year incidence of the first major chronic disease in the adult population. Design, Setting, and Participants:In this cohort study, CDPoRT was developed and validated with 6 cycles of the Canadian Community Health Survey, linked to administrative data from January 2000 to December 2014. Development and internal validation (bootstrap and split sample) of CDPoRT occurred in Ontario, Canada, from June 2018 to April 2019 followed by external validation in Manitoba from May 2019 to July 2019. The study cohorts included 133?991 adults (?20 years) representative of the Ontario and Manitoba populations who did not have a history of major chronic disease. Exposures:Predictors were routinely collected risk factors from the Canadian Community Health Survey, such as sociodemographic factors (eg, age), modifiable lifestyle risk factors (ie, alcohol consumption, cigarette smoking, unhealthy diet, and physical inactivity), and other health-related factors (eg, body mass index). Main Outcomes and Measures:Six major chronic diseases were considered, as follows: congestive heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes, myocardial infarction, lung cancer, and stroke. Sex-specific CDPoRT algorithms were developed with a Weibull model. Model performance was evaluated with measures of overall predictive performance (eg, Brier score), discrimination (eg, Harrell C index), and calibration (eg, calibration curves). Results:The Ontario cohort (n?=?118?747) was younger (mean [SD] age, 45.6 [16.1] vs 46.3 [16.4] years), had more immigrants (23?808 [20.0%] vs 1417 [10.7%]), and had a lower mean (SD) body mass index (26.9 [5.1] vs 27.7 [5.4]) than the Manitoba cohort (n?=?13?244). During development, the full and parsimonious CDPoRT models had similar Brier scores (women, 0.087; men, 0.091), Harrell C index values (women, 0.779; men, 0.783), and calibration curves. A simple version consisting of cigarette smoking, age, and body mass index performed slightly worse than the other versions (eg, Brier score for women, 0.088; for men, 0.092). Internal validation showed consistent performance across models, and CDPoRT performed well during external validation. For example, the female parsimonious version had C index values for bootstrap, split sample, and external validation of 0.778, 0.776, and 0.752, respectively. Conclusions and Relevance:In this study, CDPoRT provided accurate, population-based risk estimates for the first major chronic disease.

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Validation of a score chart to predict the risk of chronic mesenteric ischemia and development of an updated score chart.

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Validation of a score chart to predict the risk of chronic mesenteric ischemia and development of an updated score chart.

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