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Estimated reductions in hospitalizations and deaths from childhood diarrhea following implementation of rotavirus vaccination in Africa.

ABSTRACT: INTRODUCTION:Rotavirus is the leading cause of hospitalizations and deaths from diarrhea. 33 African countries had introduced rotavirus vaccines by 2016. We estimate reductions in rotavirus hospitalizations and deaths for countries using rotavirus vaccination in national immunization programs and the potential of vaccine introduction across the continent. Areas covered: Regional rotavirus burden data were reviewed to calculate hospitalization rates, and applied to under-5 population to estimate baseline hospitalizations. Rotavirus mortality was based on 2013 WHO estimates. Regional pre-licensure vaccine efficacy and post-introduction vaccine effectiveness studies were used to estimate summary effectiveness, and vaccine coverage was applied to calculate prevented hospitalizations and deaths. Uncertainties around input parameters were propagated using boot-strapping simulations. In 29 African countries that introduced rotavirus vaccination prior to end 2014, 134,714 (IQR 112,321-154,654) hospitalizations and 20,986 (IQR 18,924-22,822) deaths were prevented in 2016. If all African countries had introduced rotavirus vaccines at benchmark immunization coverage, 273,619 (47%) (IQR 227,260-318,102) hospitalizations and 47,741 (39%) (IQR 42,822-52,462) deaths would have been prevented. Expert commentary: Rotavirus vaccination has substantially reduced hospitalizations and deaths in Africa; further reductions are anticipated as additional countries implement vaccination. These estimates bolster wider introduction and continued support of rotavirus vaccination programs.

SUBMITTER: Shah MP

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6829907 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Estimated reductions in hospitalizations and deaths from childhood diarrhea following implementation of rotavirus vaccination in Africa.

Shah Minesh P MP Tate Jacqueline E JE Mwenda Jason M JM Steele A Duncan AD Parashar Umesh D UD

Expert review of vaccines 20170904 10

<h4>Introduction</h4>Rotavirus is the leading cause of hospitalizations and deaths from diarrhea. 33 African countries had introduced rotavirus vaccines by 2016. We estimate reductions in rotavirus hospitalizations and deaths for countries using rotavirus vaccination in national immunization programs and the potential of vaccine introduction across the continent. Areas covered: Regional rotavirus burden data were reviewed to calculate hospitalization rates, and applied to under-5 population to e ...[more]

PMID: 28832219

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Project description:ImportanceIn 2021, more than 80 000 US residents died from an opioid overdose. Public health intervention initiatives, such as the Helping to End Addiction Long-term (HEALing) Communities Study (HCS), are being launched with the goal of reducing opioid-related overdose deaths (OODs).ObjectiveTo estimate the change in the projected number of OODs under different scenarios of the duration of sustainment of interventions, compared with the status quo.Design, setting, and participantsThis decision analytical model simulated the opioid epidemic in the 4 states participating in the HCS (ie, Kentucky, Massachusetts, New York, and Ohio) from 2020 to 2026. Participants were a simulated population transitioning from opioid misuse to opioid use disorder (OUD), overdose, treatment, and relapse. The model was calibrated using 2015 to 2020 data from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and other sources for each state. The model accounts for reduced initiation of medications for OUD (MOUDs) and increased OODs during the COVID-19 pandemic.ExposureIncreasing MOUD initiation by 2- or 5-fold, improving MOUD retention to the rates achieved in clinical trial settings, increasing naloxone distribution efforts, and furthering safe opioid prescribing. An initial 2-year duration of interventions was simulated, with potential sustainment for up to 3 additional years.Main outcomes and measuresProjected reduction in number of OODs under different combinations and durations of sustainment of interventions.ResultsCompared with the status quo, the estimated annual reduction in OODs at the end of the second year of interventions was 13% to 17% in Kentucky, 17% to 27% in Massachusetts, 15% to 22% in New York, and 15% to 22% in Ohio. Sustaining all interventions for an additional 3 years was estimated to reduce the annual number of OODs at the end of the fifth year by 18% to 27% in Kentucky, 28% to 46% in Massachusetts, 22% to 34% in New York, and 25% to 41% in Ohio. The longer the interventions were sustained, the better the outcomes; however, these positive gains would be washed out if interventions were not sustained.Conclusions and relevanceIn this decision analytical model study of the opioid epidemic in 4 US states, sustained implementation of interventions, including increased delivery of MOUDs and naloxone supply, was found to be needed to reduce OODs and prevent deaths from increasing again.

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Estimated reductions in hospitalizations and deaths from childhood diarrhea following implementation of rotavirus vaccination in Africa.

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Estimated reductions in hospitalizations and deaths from childhood diarrhea following implementation of rotavirus vaccination in Africa.

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