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Risk factors of lymph node metastasis or lymphovascular invasion for early gastric cancer: a practical and effective predictive model based on international multicenter data.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Most lymph node metastasis (LNM) models for early gastric cancer (EGC) include lymphovascular invasion (LVI) as a predictor. However, LVI must be confirmed by postoperative pathology. In this study, we aimed to develop a model for predicting the risk of LNM/LVI in EGC using preoperative factors. METHODS:EGC patients who underwent radical gastrectomy at Fujian Medical University Union Hospital and Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center (n = 1460) were selected as the training set. The risk factors of LNM/LVI were investigated. Data from the International study group on Minimally Invasive surgery for GASTRIc Cancer trial (n = 172) were selected as the validation set. RESULTS:In the training set, the incidence of LNM/LVI was 21.6%. The 5-year cancer-specific survival rates of patients with and without LNM/LVI were 92.4 and 95.0%, respectively, with significant difference (P = 0.030). Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that the four independent risk factors for LNM/LVI were female, tumor larger than 20 mm, submucosal invasion and undifferentiated tumor histological type (all P < 0.05); the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.694 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.659-0.730). Patients were divided into low-risk, intermediate-risk, high-risk and extremely high-risk groups by recursive partitioning analysis; the incidences of LNM/LVI were 5.4, 12.6, 24.2 and 37.8%, respectively (P < 0.001). The AUC of the validation set was 0.796 (95%CI, 0.662-0.851) and the predictive performance of the LNM/LVI risk in the validation set was consistent with that in the training set. CONCLUSIONS:The risk of LNM/LVI in differentiated mucosal EGC is low, which indicated that endoscopic resection is a treatment option. The risk of LNM/LVI in undifferentiated mucosal EGC and submucosa EGC are high and gastrectomy with lymph node dissection is suggested.

SUBMITTER: Lin JX

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6836519 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Risk factors of lymph node metastasis or lymphovascular invasion for early gastric cancer: a practical and effective predictive model based on international multicenter data.

Lin Jian-Xian JX Wang Zu-Kai ZK Wang Wei W Desiderio Jacopo J Xie Jian-Wei JW Wang Jia-Bin JB Lu Jun J Chen Qi-Yue QY Cao Long-Long LL Lin Mi M Tu Ru-Hong RH Zheng Chao-Hui CH Li Ping P Parisi Amilcare A Zhou Zhi-Wei ZW Huang Chang-Ming CM

BMC cancer 20191106 1

<h4>Background</h4>Most lymph node metastasis (LNM) models for early gastric cancer (EGC) include lymphovascular invasion (LVI) as a predictor. However, LVI must be confirmed by postoperative pathology. In this study, we aimed to develop a model for predicting the risk of LNM/LVI in EGC using preoperative factors.<h4>Methods</h4>EGC patients who underwent radical gastrectomy at Fujian Medical University Union Hospital and Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center (n = 1460) were selected as the train ...[more]

PMID: 31694573

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Project description:Background Lymphovascular invasion (LVI) is mostly used as a preoperative predictor to establish lymph node metastasis (LNM) prediction models for superficial esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (SESCC). However, LVI still needs to be confirmed by postoperative pathology. In this study, we combined LNM and LVI as a unified outcome and named it LNM/LVI, and aimed to develop an LNM/LVI prediction model in SESCC using preoperative factors. Methods A total of 512 patients who underwent radical resection of SESCC were retrospectively collected. Logistic regression and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression were adopted to identify the predictive factors of LNM/LVI. Integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and net reclassification improvement (NRI) were calculated to select the potential predictive factors from the results of LASSO and logistic regression. A nomogram for predicting LNM/LVI was established by incorporating these factors. The efficacy, accuracy, and clinical utility of the nomogram were, respectively, assessed with the area under the curve (AUC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Finally, the random forest (RF) algorithm was used to further evaluate the impact of these factors included in the nomogram on LNM/LVI. Results Tumor size, tumor location, tumor invasion depth, tumor differentiation, and macroscopic type were confirmed as independent risk factors for LNM/LVI according to the results of logistic regression, LASSO regression, IDI, and NRI analyses. A nomogram including these five variables showed a good performance in LNM/LVI prediction (AUC = 0.776). The calibration curve revealed that the predictive results of this nomogram were nearly consistent with actual observations. Significant clinical utility of our nomogram was demonstrated by DCA. The RF model with the same five variables also had similar predictive efficacy with the nomogram (AUC = 0.775). Conclusion The nomogram was adopted as a final tool for predicting LNM/LVI because its risk score system made it more user-friendly and clinically useful than the random forest model, which can help clinicians make optimal treatment decisions for patients with SESCC.

Project description:PurposeLymphovascular space invasion (LVSI) predicts for higher rates of recurrence and increased mortality in endometrial cancer. Using 3-tier LVSI scoring, a PORTEC-1 and -2 trials analysis demonstrated that substantial LVSI was associated with worse locoregional (LR-DFS) and distant metastasis disease-free survival (DM-DFS), and these patients possibly benefited from external beam radiation therapy (EBRT). Furthermore, LVSI is a predictor for lymph node (LN) involvement, but the significance of substantial LVSI is unknown in patients with a pathologically negative LN assessment. We aimed to evaluate clinical outcomes of these patients in relation to the 3-tier LVSI scoring system.Methods and materialsWe performed a single-institutional retrospective review of patients with stage I endometrioid-type endometrial cancer who underwent surgical staging with pathologically negative LN evaluation from 2017 to 2019 with 3-tier LVSI scoring (none, focal, or substantial). Clinical outcomes (LR-DFS, DM-DFS, and overall survival) were analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method.ResultsA total of 335 patients with pathologically LN-negative stage I endometrioid-type endometrial carcinoma were identified. Substantial LVSI was present in 17.6% of patients; 39.7% of patients received adjuvant vaginal brachytherapy and 6.9% of patients received EBRT. Adjuvant radiation treatment varied by LVSI status. In patients with focal LVSI, 81.0% received vaginal brachytherapy. Among patients with substantial LVSI, 57.9% received vaginal brachytherapy alone, and 31.6% of patients received EBRT. The 2-year LR-DFS rates were 92.5%, 98.0%, and 91.4% for no LVSI, focal LVSI, and substantial LVSI, respectively. The 2-year DM-DFS rates were 95.5%, 93.3%, and 93.8% for no LVSI, focal LVSI, and substantial LVSI, respectively.ConclusionsIn our institutional study, patients with pathologically LN-negative stage I endometrial cancer with substantial LVSI had similar rates of LR-DFS and DM-DFS compared with patients with none or focal LVSI. These findings highlight the need for multi-institutional studies to validate the prognostic value of substantial LVSI in this patient population.

Dataset Information

Risk factors of lymph node metastasis or lymphovascular invasion for early gastric cancer: a practical and effective predictive model based on international multicenter data.

Publications

Risk factors of lymph node metastasis or lymphovascular invasion for early gastric cancer: a practical and effective predictive model based on international multicenter data.

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