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A NADE nomogram to predict the probability of 6-month unfavorable outcome in Chinese patients with ischemic stroke.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Early prediction of unfavorable outcome after ischemic stroke is of great significance to the clinical and therapeutic management. A nomogram is a better visual tool than earlier models and prognostic scores to predict clinical outcomes, which incorporates different factors to develop a graphic continuous scoring system and calculates accurately the risk probability of poor outcome entirely based on individual characteristics. However, to date, no nomogram models have been found to predict the probability of 6-month poor outcome after ischemic stroke. We aimed to develop and validate a nomogram for individualized prediction of the probability of 6-month unfavorable outcome in Chinese patients with ischemic stroke. METHODS:Based on the retrospective stroke registry, a single-center study which included 499 patients from May, 2013 to May, 2018 was conducted in Nanjing First Hospital (China) for ischemic stroke within 12?h of symptoms onset. The main outcome measure was 6-month unfavorable outcome (mRS?>?2). To generate the nomogram, NIHSS score on admission, Age, previous Diabetes mellitus and crEatinine (NADE) were integrated into the model. We assessed the discriminative performance by using the area under the curve (AUC) of receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) and calibration of risk prediction model by using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. RESULTS:A visual NADE nomogram was constructed that NIHSS score on admission (OR: 1.190, 95%CI: 1.125-1.258), age (OR: 1.068, 95%CI: 1.045-1.090), previous diabetes mellitus (OR: 1.995, 95%CI: 1.236-3.221) and creatinine (OR: 1.010, 95%CI: 1.002-1.018) were found to be significant predictors of 6-month unfavorable outcome after acute ischemic stroke in Chinese patients. The AUC-ROC of nomogram was 0.791. Calibration was good (p?=?0.4982 for the Hosmer-Lemeshow test). CONCLUSION:The NADE is the first nomogram developed and validated in Chinese ischemic stroke patients to provide an individual, visual and precise prediction of the risk probability of 6-month unfavorable outcome.

SUBMITTER: Sun C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6839074 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A NADE nomogram to predict the probability of 6-month unfavorable outcome in Chinese patients with ischemic stroke.

Sun Chao C Li Xiang X Song Baili B Chen Xiangliang X Nyame Linda L Liu Yukai Y Tang Dan D Ibrahim Mako M Zhao Zheng Z Liu Chao C Yan Miao M Pan Xiding X Yang Jie J Zhou Junshan J Zou Jianjun J

BMC neurology 20191107 1

<h4>Background</h4>Early prediction of unfavorable outcome after ischemic stroke is of great significance to the clinical and therapeutic management. A nomogram is a better visual tool than earlier models and prognostic scores to predict clinical outcomes, which incorporates different factors to develop a graphic continuous scoring system and calculates accurately the risk probability of poor outcome entirely based on individual characteristics. However, to date, no nomogram models have been fou ...[more]

PMID: 31699038

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Project description:IntroductionStroke remains a leading cause of death and disability worldwide. Effective and prompt prognostic evaluation is vital for determining the appropriate management strategy. Radiomics is an emerging noninvasive method used to identify the quantitative imaging indicators for predicting important clinical outcomes. This study was conducted to investigate and validate a radiomics nomogram for predicting ischemic stroke prognosis using the modified Rankin scale (mRS).MethodsA total of 598 consecutive patients with subacute infarction confirmed by diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI), from January 2018 to December 2019, were retrospectively assessed. They were assigned to the good (mRS ≤ 2) and poor (mRS > 2) functional outcome groups, respectively. Then, 399 patients examined by MR scanner 1 and 199 patients scanned by MR scanner 2 were assigned to the training and validation cohorts, respectively. Infarction lesions underwent manual segmentation on DWI, extracting 402 radiomic features. A radiomics nomogram encompassing patient characteristics and the radiomics signature was built using a multivariate logistic regression model. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated in the training and validation cohorts. Ultimately, decision curve analysis was implemented to assess the clinical value of the nomogram. The performance of infarction lesion volume was also evaluated using univariate analysis.ResultsStroke lesion volume showed moderate performance, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.678. The radiomics signature, including 11 radiomics features, exhibited good prediction performance. The radiomics nomogram, encompassing clinical characteristics (age, hemorrhage, and 24 h National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score) and the radiomics signature, presented good discriminatory potential in the training cohort [AUC = 0.80; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.75-0.86], which was validated in the validation cohort (AUC = 0.73; 95% CI 0.63-0.82). In addition, it demonstrated good calibration in the training (p = 0.55) and validation (p = 0.21) cohorts. Decision curve analysis confirmed the clinical value of this nomogram.ConclusionThis novel noninvasive clinical-radiomics nomogram shows good performance in predicting ischemic stroke prognosis.

Project description:BACKGROUND:A reliable scoring tool to detect the risk of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) after intravenous thrombolysis for ischemic stroke is warranted. The present study was designed to develop and validate a new nomogram for individualized prediction of the probability of hemorrhagic transformation (HT) in patients treated with intravenous (IV) recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (rt-PA). METHODS:We enrolled patients who suffered from acute ischemic stroke (AIS) with IV rt-PA treatment in our emergency green channel between August 2016 and July 2018. The main outcome was defined as any type of intracerebral hemorrhage according to the European Cooperative Acute Stroke Study II (ECASS II). All patients were randomly divided into two cohorts: the primary cohort and the validation cohort. On the basis of multivariate logistic model, the predictive nomogram was generated. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated by Harrell's concordance index (C-index) and calibration plot. RESULTS:A total of 194 patients with complete data were enrolled, of whom 131 comprised the primary cohort and 63 comprised the validation cohort, with HT rate 12.2, 9.5% respectively. The score of chronic disease scale (CDS), the global burden of cerebral small vascular disease (CSVD), National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score???13, and onset-to-treatment time (OTT)???180 were detected important determinants of ICH and included to construct the nomogram. The nomogram derived from the primary cohort for HT had C- Statistics of 0.9562 and the calibration plot revealed generally fit in predicting the risk of HT. Furthermore, we made a comparison between our new nomogram and several other risk-assessed scales for HT with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, and the results showed the nomogram model gave an area under curve of 0.9562 (95%CI, 0.9221-0.9904, P?<?0.01) greater than HAT (Hemorrhage After Thrombolysis), SEDAN (blood Sugar, Early infarct and hyper Dense cerebral artery sign on non-contrast computed tomography, Age, and NIHSS) and SPAN-100 (Stroke Prognostication using Age and NIHSS) scores. CONCLUSIONS:This proposed nomogram based on the score of CDS, the global burden of CSVD, NIHSS score???13, and OTT???180 gives rise to a more accurate and more comprehensive prediction for HT in patients with ischemic stroke receiving IV rt-PA treatment.

Project description:BackgroundA significant proportion of patients with mild ischemic stroke become disabled despite receiving intravenous thrombolytic therapy. The purpose of this study was to assess the clinical and radiological factors associated with unfavorable outcomes in patients with minor ischemic stroke that received intravenous recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (rt-PA) therapy.MethodsWe identified anterior circulation stroke patients with initial National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) scores ≤5 who received intravenous thrombolysis within 4.5 h of stroke onset and had pretreatment magnetic resonance (MR)/MR angiography using our prospective stroke database. We analyzed baseline characteristics, infarction patterns on diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI), and steno-occlusive lesions on MR angiography. Unfavorable outcome was defined as a modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score ≥ 2 at 90 days. Logistic regression was used to determine independent predictors of unfavorable outcomes.ResultsAmong 121 patients (85 men; mean age, 63.4 ± 11.3 years) included in this study, 46 (38%) had unfavorable outcomes at 90 days and DWI lesion patterns showing infarction in the deep middle cerebral artery (MCA) territory involving the perforating artery area was observed in 47 (38.8%) patients. On multivariable analysis, unfavorable outcomes at 90 days were associated with diabetes [odds ratio (OR), 3.41; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.06-10.9; P = 0.039), NIHSS score on admission (OR, 2.11; 95% CI, 1.35-3.30; P = 0.001), and infarction in the deep MCA territory on DWI (OR, 4.19; 95% CI, 1.63-10.8; P = 0.003). Lesions in the deep MCA territory was independently associated with early neurological deterioration (P = 0.032). The patients without deep MCA territory infarction had a higher prevalence of cardiac embolism (P = 0.009).ConclusionsHigher NIHSS scores, diabetes, and deep MCA territory infarction may be useful for predicting unfavorable outcomes in patients with minor stroke treated with intravenous rt-PA therapy.

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A NADE nomogram to predict the probability of 6-month unfavorable outcome in Chinese patients with ischemic stroke.

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A NADE nomogram to predict the probability of 6-month unfavorable outcome in Chinese patients with ischemic stroke.

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