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An integrated framework to identify wildlife populations under threat from climate change.

ABSTRACT: Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity that will produce a range of new selection pressures. Understanding species responses to climate change requires an interdisciplinary perspective, combining ecological, molecular and environmental approaches. We propose an applied integrated framework to identify populations under threat from climate change based on their extent of exposure, inherent sensitivity due to adaptive and neutral genetic variation and range shift potential. We consider intraspecific vulnerability and population-level responses, an important but often neglected conservation research priority. We demonstrate how this framework can be applied to vertebrates with limited dispersal abilities using empirical data for the bat Plecotus austriacus. We use ecological niche modelling and environmental dissimilarity analysis to locate areas at high risk of exposure to future changes. Combining outlier tests with genotype-environment association analysis, we identify potential climate-adaptive SNPs in our genomic data set and differences in the frequency of adaptive and neutral variation between populations. We assess landscape connectivity and show that changing environmental suitability may limit the future movement of individuals, thus affecting both the ability of populations to shift their distribution to climatically suitable areas and the probability of evolutionary rescue through the spread of adaptive genetic variation among populations. Therefore, a better understanding of movement ecology and landscape connectivity is needed for predicting population persistence under climate change. Our study highlights the importance of incorporating genomic data to determine sensitivity, adaptive potential and range shift potential, instead of relying solely on exposure to guide species vulnerability assessments and conservation planning.

SUBMITTER: Razgour O

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6849758 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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An integrated framework to identify wildlife populations under threat from climate change.

Razgour Orly O Taggart John B JB Manel Stephanie S Juste Javier J Ibáñez Carlos C Rebelo Hugo H Alberdi Antton A Jones Gareth G Park Kirsty K

Molecular ecology resources 20170725 1

Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity that will produce a range of new selection pressures. Understanding species responses to climate change requires an interdisciplinary perspective, combining ecological, molecular and environmental approaches. We propose an applied integrated framework to identify populations under threat from climate change based on their extent of exposure, inherent sensitivity due to adaptive and neutral genetic variation and range shift potential. We con ...[more]

PMID: 28649779

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Project description:Background and aimsSeed germination is strongly influenced by environmental temperatures. With global temperatures predicted to rise, the timing of germination for thousands of plant species could change, leading to potential decreases in fitness and ecosystem-wide impacts. The thermogradient plate (TGP) is a powerful but underutilized research tool that tests germination under a broad range of constant and alternating temperatures, giving researchers the ability to predict germination characteristics using current and future climates. Previously, limitations surrounding experimental design and data analysis methods have discouraged its use in seed biology research.MethodsHere, we have developed a freely available R script that uses TGP data to analyse seed germination responses to temperature. We illustrate this analysis framework using three example species: Wollemia nobilis, Callitris baileyi and Alectryon subdentatus. The script generates >40 germination indices including germination rates and final germination across each cell of the TGP. These indices are then used to populate generalized additive models and predict germination under current and future monthly maximum and minimum temperatures anywhere on the globe.Key resultsIn our study species, modelled data were highly correlated with observed data, allowing confident predictions of monthly germination patterns for current and future climates. Wollemia nobilis germinated across a broad range of temperatures and was relatively unaffected by predicted future temperatures. In contrast, C. baileyi and A. subdentatus showed strong seasonal temperature responses, and the timing for peak germination was predicted to shift seasonally under future temperatures.ConclusionsOur experimental workflow is a leap forward in the analysis of TGP experiments, increasing its many potential benefits, thereby improving research predictions and providing substantial information to inform management and conservation of plant species globally.

Dataset Information

An integrated framework to identify wildlife populations under threat from climate change.

Publications

An integrated framework to identify wildlife populations under threat from climate change.

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