Dataset Information

Fathoming sea turtles: monitoring strategy evaluation to improve conservation status assessments.

ABSTRACT: Population monitoring must be accurate and reliable to correctly classify population status. For sea turtles, nesting beach surveys are often the only population-level surveys that are accessible. However, process and observation errors, compounded by delayed maturity, obscure the relationship between trends on the nesting beach and the population. We present a simulation-based tool, monitoring strategy evaluation (MoSE), to test the relationships between monitoring data and assessment accuracy, using green sea turtles, Chelonia mydas, as a case study. To explore this first application of MoSE, we apply different treatments of population impacts to virtual true populations, and sample the nests or nesters, with observation error, to test if the observation data can be used to diagnose population status accurately. Based on the observed data, we examine population trend and compare it to the known values from the operating model. We ran a series of scenarios including harvest impacts, cyclical breeding probability, and sampling biases, to see how these factors impact accuracy in estimating population trend. We explored the necessary duration of monitoring for accurate trend estimation and the probability of a false trend diagnosis. Our results suggest that disturbance type and severity can have important and persistent effects on the accuracy of population assessments drawn from monitoring nesting beaches. The underlying population phase, age classes disturbed, and impact severity influenced the accuracy of estimating population trend. At least 10 yr of monitoring data is necessary to estimate population trend accurately, and >20 yr if juvenile age classes were disturbed and the population is recovering. In general, there is a greater probability of making a false positive trend diagnosis than a false negative, but this depends on impact type and severity, population phase, and sampling duration. Improving detection rates to 90% does little to lower probability of a false trend diagnosis with shorter monitoring spans. Altogether, monitoring strategies for specific populations may be tailored based on the impact history, population phase, and environmental drivers. The MoSE is an important framework for analysis through simulation that can comprehensively test population assessments for accuracy and inform policy recommendations regarding the best monitoring strategies.

SUBMITTER: Piacenza SE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6851787 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Fathoming sea turtles: monitoring strategy evaluation to improve conservation status assessments.

Piacenza Susan E SE Richards Paul M PM Heppell Selina S SS

Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America 20190716 6

Population monitoring must be accurate and reliable to correctly classify population status. For sea turtles, nesting beach surveys are often the only population-level surveys that are accessible. However, process and observation errors, compounded by delayed maturity, obscure the relationship between trends on the nesting beach and the population. We present a simulation-based tool, monitoring strategy evaluation (MoSE), to test the relationships between monitoring data and assessment accuracy, ...[more]

PMID: 31267602

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Project description:Where conservation resources are limited and conservation targets are diverse, robust yet flexible priority-setting frameworks are vital. Priority-setting is especially important for geographically widespread species with distinct populations subject to multiple threats that operate on different spatial and temporal scales. Marine turtles are widely distributed and exhibit intra-specific variations in population sizes and trends, as well as reproduction and morphology. However, current global extinction risk assessment frameworks do not assess conservation status of spatially and biologically distinct marine turtle Regional Management Units (RMUs), and thus do not capture variations in population trends, impacts of threats, or necessary conservation actions across individual populations. To address this issue, we developed a new assessment framework that allowed us to evaluate, compare and organize marine turtle RMUs according to status and threats criteria. Because conservation priorities can vary widely (i.e. from avoiding imminent extinction to maintaining long-term monitoring efforts) we developed a "conservation priorities portfolio" system using categories of paired risk and threats scores for all RMUs (n?=?58). We performed these assessments and rankings globally, by species, by ocean basin, and by recognized geopolitical bodies to identify patterns in risk, threats, and data gaps at different scales. This process resulted in characterization of risk and threats to all marine turtle RMUs, including identification of the world's 11 most endangered marine turtle RMUs based on highest risk and threats scores. This system also highlighted important gaps in available information that is crucial for accurate conservation assessments. Overall, this priority-setting framework can provide guidance for research and conservation priorities at multiple relevant scales, and should serve as a model for conservation status assessments and priority-setting for widespread, long-lived taxa.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Conservation strategies are urgently needed for tropical turtles that are increasingly threatened by unsustainable exploitation. Studies conducted exclusively in temperate zones have revealed that typical turtle life history traits (including delayed sexual maturity and high adult survivorship) make sustainable harvest programs an unviable strategy for turtle conservation. However, most turtles are tropical in distribution and the tropics have higher, more constant and more extended ambient temperature regimes that, in general, are more favorable for population growth. METHODS:To estimate the capacity of temperate and tropical turtles to sustain harvest, we synthesized life-history traits from 165 predominantly freshwater turtle species in 12 families (Carettochelydae, Chelidae, Chelydridae, Dermatemydidae, Emydidae, Geoemydidae, Kinosternidae, Pelomedusidae, Platysternidae, Podocnemididae, Staurotypidae and Trionychidae). The influence of climate variables and latitude on turtle life-history traits (clutch size, clutch frequency, age at sexual maturity, and annual adult survival) were examined using Generalized Additive Models. The biological feasibility of sustainable harvest in temperate and tropical species was evaluated using a sensitivity analysis of population growth rates obtained from stage-structured matrix population models. RESULTS:Turtles at low latitudes (tropical zones) exhibit smaller clutch sizes, higher clutch frequency, and earlier age at sexual maturity than those at high latitudes (temperate zones). Adult survival increased weakly with latitude and declined significantly with increasing bioclimatic temperature (mean temperature of warmest quarter). A modeling synthesis of these data indicates that the interplay of life-history traits does not create higher harvest opportunity in adults of tropical species. Yet, we found potential for sustainable exploitation of eggs in tropical species. CONCLUSIONS:Sustainable harvest as a conservation strategy for tropical turtles appears to be as biologically problematic as in temperature zones and likely only possible if the focus is on limited harvest of eggs. Further studies are urgently needed to understand how the predicted population surplus in early life stages can be most effectively incorporated into conservation programs for tropical turtles.

Dataset Information

Fathoming sea turtles: monitoring strategy evaluation to improve conservation status assessments.

Publications

Fathoming sea turtles: monitoring strategy evaluation to improve conservation status assessments.

Similar Datasets

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