Dataset Information

Predicting biochemical recurrence and prostate cancer-specific mortality after radical prostatectomy: comparison of six prediction models in a cohort of patients with screening- and clinically detected prostate cancer.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

To perform a comparison and external validation of three models predicting biochemical recurrence (BCR) and three models predicting prostate cancer (PCa)-specific mortality (PCSM) in a screening setting, i.e. patients with screening-detected PCa (S-PCa) and in those with clinically detected PCa (C-PCa).

Subjects and methods

We retrospectively evaluated 795 men with S-PCa, from the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer, Rotterdam, and 1123 men with C-PCa initially treated with RP. The discriminative ability of the models was assessed according to the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver-operating characteristic, and calibration was assessed graphically using calibration plots.

Results

The median (interquartile range [IQR]) follow-up for the S-PCa group was 10.4 (6.8-14.3) years and for the C-PCa group it was 8.8 (4.8-12.9) years. A total of 123 men with S-PCa (15%) and 389 men with C-PCa (35%) experienced BCR. Of the men with S-PCa and BCR, 24 (20%) died from PCa and 29 (23%) died from other causes. Of the men with C-PCa and BCR, 68 (17%) died from PCa and 105 (27%) died from other causes. The discrimination of the models predicting BCR or PCSM was higher for men with S-PCa (AUC: BCR 0.77-0.84, PCSM 0.60-0.77) than for the men with C-PCa (AUC: BCR 0.75-0.79, PCSM 0.51-0.68) as a result of the similar patient characteristics of the men with S-PCa in the present study and those of the cohorts used to develop these models. The risk of BCR was typically overestimated, while the risk of PCSM was typically underestimated.

Conclusion

Prediction models for BCR showed good discrimination and reasonable calibration for both men with S-PCa and men with C-PCa, and even better discrimination for men with S-PCa. For PCSM, the evaluated models are not applicable in both settings of this Dutch cohort as a result of substantial miscalibration. This warrants caution when using these models to communicate future risks in other clinical settings.

SUBMITTER: Remmers S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6852479 | biostudies-literature | 2019 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Predicting biochemical recurrence and prostate cancer-specific mortality after radical prostatectomy: comparison of six prediction models in a cohort of patients with screening- and clinically detected prostate cancer.

Remmers Sebastiaan S Verbeek Jan F M JFM Nieboer Daan D van der Kwast Theo T Roobol Monique J MJ

BJU international 20190530 4

<h4>Objectives</h4>To perform a comparison and external validation of three models predicting biochemical recurrence (BCR) and three models predicting prostate cancer (PCa)-specific mortality (PCSM) in a screening setting, i.e. patients with screening-detected PCa (S-PCa) and in those with clinically detected PCa (C-PCa).<h4>Subjects and methods</h4>We retrospectively evaluated 795 men with S-PCa, from the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer, Rotterdam, and 1123 men with C ...[more]

PMID: 31055875

Similar Datasets

Project description:Accurate estimation of recurrence risk is needed for optimal treatment of clinically localized prostate cancer (PCa) patients. We combined classical clinicopathological predictors of biochemical recurrence (BCR) and molecular markers into a new risk score for predicting BCR after radical prostatectomy (RP). A retrospective study which included 122 PCa patients who attended our department between 2000 and 2007 was conducted. Total RNA was isolated from formalin-fixed paraffin embedded PCa tissue. Gene expression patterns were analyzed in 21 selected samples from 7 localized, 6 locally advanced, and 8 metastatic PCa patients using Illumina microarrays. Expression levels of 41 genes were validated by quantitative PCR in an independent retrospective series of 101 patients with ≥ 10 years follow-up who underwent RP for clinically localized PCa. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to identify individual predictors of BCR. A risk score (RS) for predicting BCR including clinicopathological and gene expression data was developed and Kaplan-Meier curves were generated. Interaction networks between the genes of the model were built by GeneMANIA Cytoscape plugin. In a median follow-up of 120 months (range 3-190), 37 patients developed BCR (36.6%). Expression levels of 7,930 transcripts differed between clinically localized and locally advanced-metastatic PCa groups (FDR<0.1). A set of 41 genes were validated by quantitative PCR. Regression analysis showed that expression of ASF1B and MCL1 as well as Gleason score, extracapsular extension, seminal vesicle invasion and positive margins were independent prognostic factors of BCR. A RS generated using these gene expression and clinicopathological variables was able to discriminate between two groups of patients with a significantly different probability of BCR (HR 6.24; CI 3.23-12.4, p<0.01), improving the individual discriminative performance of each of these variables on their own. Direct interactions between the two genes of the model were not found. In conclusion, identification of new gene expression patterns associated with a high probability of BCR in clinically localized PCa patients treated with RP, and their combination with clinicopathological variables in a robust, easy-to-use and reliable classifier may contribute to improve PCa risk stratification and, consequently, to tailor treatment and surveillance strategies in these patients.

Project description:We have previously demonstrated a significant correlative relationship between PTEN deletion and ERG rearrangement, both in the development of clinically localized prostate cancers and metastases. Herein, we evaluate the cooperative role of ERG and PTEN in oncological outcomes after radical prostatectomy for clinically localized prostate cancer. We evaluated ERG and PTEN status using three previously described cohorts. The first cohort included 235 clinically localized prostate cancer cases represented on tissue microarrays (TMA), evaluated using previously validated FISH assays for ERG and PTEN. The second cohort included 167 cases of clinically localized prostate cancer on TMAs evaluated for PTEN by FISH, and for PTEN and ERG by dual IHC. The third cohort comprised 59 clinically localized prostate cancer cases assessed by array comparative genomic hybridization (aCGH). Kaplan-Meir plots and long rank tests were used to assess the association of ERG and PTEN status with biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy for clinically localized prostate cancer. Of the 317 cases eligible for analyses with evaluable ERG and PTEN status, 88 (27.8%) patients developed biochemical recurrence over a median follow-up of 5.7 years. Overall, 45% (142/317) of cases demonstrated ERG rearrangement and 20% (62/317) of cases demonstrated PTEN loss. Hemizygous and homozygous deletion of PTEN was seen in 10% (18/175) and 3% (5/175) of ERG-negative cases, respectively. In contrast, hemizygous and homozygous deletion of PTEN was seen in 11% (15/142) and 17% (24/123) of ERG-positive cases, respectively. PTEN loss (heterozygous or homozygous) was significantly associated with shorter time to biochemical recurrence compared to no PTEN loss (p < 0.001). However, ERG rearrangement versus no rearrangement was not associated with time to PSA recurrence (p = 0.15). Patients who exhibited ERG rearrangement and loss of PTEN had no significant difference in time to recurrence compared to patients with wild-type ERG and loss of PTEN (p = 0.30). Our findings confirm a mutual cooperative role of ERG and PTEN in the pathogenesis of prostate cancer, particularly for homozygous PTEN deletion. ERG did not stratify outcome either alone or in combination with PTEN in this cohort.

Dataset Information

Predicting biochemical recurrence and prostate cancer-specific mortality after radical prostatectomy: comparison of six prediction models in a cohort of patients with screening- and clinically detected prostate cancer.

Objectives

Subjects and methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Predicting biochemical recurrence and prostate cancer-specific mortality after radical prostatectomy: comparison of six prediction models in a cohort of patients with screening- and clinically detected prostate cancer.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets