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The effect of temperature on childhood hand, foot and mouth disease in Guangdong Province, China, 2010-2013: a multicity study.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a serious infectious disease, which has become a public health problem. Previous studies have shown that temperature may influence the incidence of HFMD, but most only focus on single city and the results are highly heterogeneous. Therefore, a multicity study was conducted to explore the association between temperature and HFMD in different cities and search for modifiers that influence the heterogeneity. METHODS:We collected daily cases of childhood HFMD (aged 0-5 years) and meteorological factors of 21 cities in Guangdong Province in the period of 2010-2013. Distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) with quasi-Poisson was adopted to quantify the effects of temperature on HFMD in 21 cities. Then the effects of each city were pooled by multivariate meta-analysis to obtain the heterogeneity among 21 cities. Potential city-level factors were included in meta-regression to explore effect modifiers. RESULTS:A total of 1,048,574 childhood cases were included in this study. There was a great correlation between daily childhood HFMD cases and temperature in each city, which was non-linear and lagged. High heterogeneity was showed in the associations between temperature and HFMD in 21 cities. The pooled temperature-HFMD association was peaking at the 79th percentile of temperature with relative risk (RR) of 2.474(95% CI: 2.065-2.965) as compared to the median temperature. Latitude was the main modifier for reducing the heterogeneity to 69.28% revealed by meta-analysis. CONCLUSIONS:There was a strong non-linear and lagged correlation between temperature and HFMD. Latitude was strongly associated with the relationship between temperature and HFMD. Meanwhile, it had an effect on modifying the relationship. These findings can conducive to local governments developing corresponding preventive measures.

SUBMITTER: Xu Z

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6852944 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundHand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) is caused by a group of enteroviruses (EVs) and has a high incidence in children; some subtypes had high mortalities in children. The subtypes of HFMD had a different incidence across seasons. Thereby, we suspect that the infection of HFMD is varied by meteorological factors. However, studies examining serotype-specific associations between meteorological factors and HFMD incidence were rare.MethodsWe obtained all HFMD cases that occurred from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2018 in Zhejiang province from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention (CISDCP). Daily meteorological data for Zhejiang province were provided by the China Methodological Data Sharing Service System and linked to HFMD cases based on residential addresses and dates of onset. The associations between meteorological factors and HFMDs were examined using distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) for each serotype.ResultsOverall, the incidences of all HFMD cases were increasing in study years, while the number of severe and fatality cases were decreasing. The dominant serotypes varied by study year. The association between temperature and incidence of both CVA16 and EV71 serotypes showed an inverted U shape. The risk ratio for CVA16 was increasing when temperature is 11-25°C, reaching the maximum RR at 18°C and humidity above 77% can promote the occurrence with CVA16, and temperature between 11 and 32°C with the maximum RR at 21°C and relative humidity above 77% are risk conditions of the occurrence of HFMD associated with EV71. For other enteroviruses causing HFMD, temperature above 11°C and humidity above 76% have a risk effect. CVA16, EV71, and all enteroviruses of HFMD have a maximum effect on lag day 0, and temperature is 35, 34, and 33°C respectively, while the enteroviruses of HFMD other than EV71 and CVA16 has a maximum effect when the temperature is 33°C and the lag time is 7 days.ConclusionThis study shows that meteorological factors have an effect on the occurrence of different HFMD serotypes. Local control strategies for public health should be taken in time to prevent and reduce the risk of HFMD while the weather is getting warmer and wetter.

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The effect of temperature on childhood hand, foot and mouth disease in Guangdong Province, China, 2010-2013: a multicity study.

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