Mortality trends of liver diseases in mainland China over three decades: an age-period-cohort analysis.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Sun Y
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6858130 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Nov
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Mortality trends of liver diseases in mainland China over three decades: an age-period-cohort analysis.
Sun Yang Y Chang Jie J Liu Xin X Liu Chaojie C
BMJ open 20191110 11
<h4>Objective</h4>To analyse mortality trends of liver diseases in China over the past 30 years.<h4>Design</h4>Age-period-cohort analyses were applied to liver diseases data obtained from the Chinese Health Statistics Annual Report (1987-2001) and the Chinese Health Statistics Yearbook (2003-2017).<h4>Setting</h4>General population in mainland China.<h4>Outcomes</h4>Mortality rates and age, period and cohort effects on three categories of liver diseases: primary liver cancer (PLC), chronic liver ...[more]
Similar Datasets
Project description:BackgroundTuberculosis, as a communicable disease, is an ongoing global epidemic that accounts for high burden of global mortality and morbidity. Globally, with an estimated 10 million new cases and around 1.4 million deaths, TB has emerged as one of the top 10 causes of morbidity and mortality in 2019. Worst hit 8 countries account for two thirds of the new TB cases in 2019, with India leading the count. Despite India's engagement in various TB control activities since its first recognition through the resolution passed in the All-India Sanitary Conference in 1912 and launch of first National Tuberculosis Control Programme in 1962, it has remained a major public health challenge to overcome. To accelerate progress towards the goal of ending TB by 2025, 5 years ahead of the global SDG target, it is imperative to outline the incidence and mortality trends of tuberculosis in India. This study aims to provide deep insights into the recent trends of TB incidence and mortality in India from 1990 to 2019.MethodsThis is an observational study based on the most recent data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. We extracted numbers, age-specific and age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of Tuberculosis for the period 1990-2019 from the Global Health Data Exchange. The average annual percent change (AAPC) along with 95% Confidence Interval (CI) in incidence and mortality were derived by joinpoint regression analysis; the net age, period, and cohort effects on the incidence and mortality rates were estimated by using Age-Period-Cohort model.ResultsDuring the study period, age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of TB in India declines from 390.22 to 223.01 and from 121.72 to 36.11 per 100,000 population respectively. The Joinpoint regression analysis showed a significant decreasing pattern in incidence rates in India between 1990 and 2019 for both male and female; but larger decline was observed in case of females (AAPC: - 2.21; 95% CI: - 2.29 to - 2.12; p < 0.001) as compared to males (AAPC: - 1.63; 95% CI: - 1.71 to - 1.54; p < 0.001). Similar pattern was observed for mortality where the declining trend was sharper for females (AAPC: - 4.35; 95% CI: - 5.12 to - 3.57; p < 0.001) as compared to males (AAPC: - 3.88; 95% CI: - 4.63 to - 3.11; p < 0.001). For age-specific rates, incidence and mortality rates of TB decreased for both male and female across all ages during this period. The age effect showed that both incidence and mortality significantly increased with advancing age; period effect showed that both incidence and mortality decreased with advancing time period; cohort effect on TB incidence and mortality also decreased from earlier birth cohorts to more recent birth cohorts.ConclusionMortality and Incidence of TB decreased across all age groups for both male and female over the period 1990-2019. The incidence as well as mortality was higher among males as compared to females. The net age effect showed an unfavourable trend while the net period effect and cohort effect presented a favourable trend. Aging was likely to drive a continued increase in the mortality of TB. Though the incidence and mortality of tuberculosis significantly decreased from 1990 to 2019, the annual rate of reduction is not sufficient enough to achieve the aim of India's National Strategic plan 2017-2025. Approximately six decades since the launch of the National Tuberculosis Control Programme, TB still remains a major public health problem in India. Government needs to strengthen four strategic pillars "Detect-Treat-Prevent-Build" (DTPB) in order to achieve TB free India as envisaged in the National Tuberculosis Elimination Programme (2020).
| S-EPMC8597252 | biostudies-literature
Project description:AimsRecent decades have seen very large declines in coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality across most of Europe, partly due to declines in risk factors such as smoking. Cardiovascular diseases (predominantly CHD and stroke), remain, however, the main cause of death in most European countries, and many risk factors for CHD, particularly obesity, have been increasing substantially over the same period. It is hypothesized that observed reductions in CHD mortality have occurred largely within older age groups, and that rates in younger groups may be plateauing or increasing as the gains from reduced smoking rates are increasingly cancelled out by increasing rates of obesity and diabetes. The aim of this study was to examine sex-specific trends in CHD mortality between 1980 and 2009 in the European Union (EU) and compare trends between adult age groups.MethodsSex-specific data from the WHO global mortality database were analysed using the joinpoint software to examine trends and significant changes in trends in age-standardized mortality rates. Specific age groups analysed were: under 45, 45-54, 55-64, and 65 years and over. The number and location of significant joinpoints for each country by sex and age group was determined (maximum of 3) using a log-linear model, and the annual percentage change within each segment calculated. Average annual percentage change overall (1980-2009) and separately for each decade were calculated with respect to the underlying joinpoint model.ResultsRecent CHD rates are now less than half what they were in the early 1980s in many countries, in younger adult age groups as well as in the population overall. Trends in mortality rates vary markedly between EU countries, but less so between age groups and sexes within countries. Fifteen countries showed evidence of a recent plateauing of trends in at least one age group for men, as did 12 countries for women. This did not, however, appear to be any more common in younger age groups compared with older adults. There was little evidence to support the hypothesis that mortality rates have recently begun to plateau in younger age groups in the EU as a whole, although such plateaus and even a small number of increases in CHD mortality in younger subpopulations were observed in a minority of countries.ConclusionThere is limited evidence to support the hypothesis that CHD mortality rates in younger age groups in the member states of the EU have been more likely to plateau than in older age groups. There are, however, substantial and persistent inequalities between countries. It remains vitally important for the whole EU to monitor and work towards reducing preventable risk factors for CHD and other chronic conditions to promote wellbeing and equity across the region.
| S-EPMC3796269 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Heart disease (HD) remains the leading cause of death among Mississippians; however, despite the importance of the condition, trends in HD mortality in Mississippi have not been adequately explored. This study examined trends in HD mortality among adults in Mississippi from 1980 through 2013 and further examined these trends by race and sex. We used data from Mississippi Vital Statistics (1980-2013) to calculate age-adjusted HD mortality rates for Mississippians age 25 or older. Cases were identified using underlying cause of death codes from the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9: 390-398, 402, 404-429) and Tenth Revision (ICD-10), including I00-I09, I11, I13, and I20-I51. Joinpoint software was used to calculate the average annual percent change in HD mortality rates for the overall population and by race and sex. Overall, the age-adjusted HD mortality rate among Mississippi adults decreased by 36.5% between 1980 and 2013, with an average annual percent change of -1.60% (95% CI -2.00 to -1.30). This trend varied across subgroups: HD mortality rates experienced an average annual change of -1.34% (95% CI -1.98 to -0.69) for black adults; -1.60% (95% CI -1.74 to -1.46) for white adults; -1.30% (95% CI -1.50 to -1.10) for all women, and -1.90% (95% -2.20 to -1.50) for all men. From 1980 to 2013, there was a continuous decrease in HD mortality among adult Mississippians. However, the magnitude of this reduction differed by race and sex.
| S-EPMC4982678 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundTo study the corresponding strategies to control inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), a comprehensive assessment of the disease burden is required. Herein, we present long-term trends in the burden of IBD in China over the last three decades, as well as its epidemiological features.MethodsWe characterized the burden of IBD in China using the GBD 2019 methods and results, based on prevalence, incidence, mortality, years lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) estimated using the DisMod-MR 2-1. We also used joinpoint and age-period-cohort (apc) analysis methods to interpret IBD epidemiological characteristics and compare them to global prevalence trends.ResultsThe age-standardized incidence and mortality rates in both sexes changed from 1.47 (95% CI: 1.24, 1.74) to 3.01 (95% CI: 2.59, 3.50) and from 0.86 (95% CI: 0.59, 1.16) to 0.30 (95% CI: 0.24, 0.35) per 100,000 people in China from 1990 to 2019. The age-standardized DALY rate in China decreased from 24.47 (95% CI: 17.88, 30.19) per 100,000 people in 1990 to 13.10 (95% CI: 10.29, 16.31) per 100,000 people in 2019. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) in age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates for IBD in China were 2.51 (95% CI: 2.44, 2.57), 2.53 (95% CI: 2.41, 2.66), and -3.62 (95% CI: -3.85, -3.39). The effects of age, period, and cohort on incidence and mortality rates differed.ConclusionsThe increasing age-standardized prevalence rates are contributed to by the reduction in age-standardized mortality rates and DALYs, compounded by the rise in the age-standardized incidence rates between 1990 and 2019 in China. The burden of IBD in China will be a major public health challenge, given the country's large population base and aging population.
| S-EPMC9490087 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe burden of colorectal cancer (CRC) in Europe is at a high level, but the epidemiological features have not yet been systematically studied. This study aimed to provide a timely and reliable assessment of the burden and trends of CRC in Europe to provide a scientific basis for its prevention and treatment.MethodsWe analyzed data on CRC in 44 European countries between 1990 and 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease study (GBD) 2019. In addition, the joinpoint regression model was applied to reflect temporal trends. The age-period-cohort model was constructed to explore age, period, and birth cohort effects that influence the risk of morbidity and mortality.ResultsIn Europe, new cases, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and deaths of CRC rose by 70.01%, 22.88% and 38.04% from 1990 to 2019, respectively. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) has increased, while age-standardized DALY rate and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) have declined. We found that men experienced a significantly higher CRC burden than women. Age-period-cohort analysis showed that the risk of incidence and mortality increased with age and time; and it was lower in the later-born cohort than the earlier-born cohort.ConclusionASIR for CRC in Europe generally trended upwards from 1990 to 2019, stabilizing in recent years but still at a high level. CRC burden varied considerably in different countries. There was a pronounced gender difference in CRC burden, and middle-aged and older men should be a priority population for CRC prevention and treatment.
| S-EPMC10728819 | biostudies-literature
Project description:By corroborating cross-sectional with longitudinal analyses, this study illustrates how cohort effects can confound trends over age and time. Mobility (walking difficulties) and edentulousness (toothlessness) were studied from 1968 to 2002 in a nationally representative panel aged 18-75 (5 waves, n ≈ 5,000) and ages 77+ at later waves (2 waves, n ≈ 500). Three analyses were done: cross-sectional 10-year age group differences in 5 waves, time-lag differences between waves (shifts across time) for age groups, and within-cohort differences between waves for 10-year birth cohorts followed over time. Complementary age-period-cohort models using logistic regression analysis evaluated differences. Both mobility and edentulousness have earlier been shown to be strongly related to age cross-sectionally. For mobility, cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses showed large changes, whereas time-lag analysis indicated no or marginal changes. Both cross-sectional and longitudinal results showed an exponential curvilinear age dependency for mobility limitations, with limitations becoming more usual in older ages. In contrast, cross-sectional and time-lag analyses of edentulousness showed large differences, whereas longitudinal analysis indicated no or marginal changes. Rates of edentulousness became increasingly lower for successively later cohorts in a curvilinear fashion. These patterns demonstrate that age effects dominated mobility, whereas cohort effects dominated edentulousness. Age-period-cohort models confirmed these findings. The cohort effect of edentulousness implies that the cohorts' movement through time gives a false impression of age and period effects in cross-sectional data.
| S-EPMC5546254 | biostudies-other
Project description:BackgroundTo investigate secular trends in edentulism incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) rates in Chinese men and women from 1990 to 2019.MethodsData were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The annual percentage change and average annual percentage change were calculated using Joinpoint regression analysis. The age-period-cohort (APC) analysis estimated the independent age, period, and cohort effects.ResultsFrom 1990 to 2019, the crude incidence, prevalence, and YLDs of edentulism in the Chinese population increased year by year, while the age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and YLDs decreased, and the latter was higher in women than in men. The APC analysis showed that the age effect increased in men and women from age 20 to 74 and decreased thereafter. The risk of tooth loss increased with age. However, the relationship was not linear. The temporal effect showed a gradual increase; the risk of missing teeth gradually increased with the changing modern living environment. The cohort effect showed a single decreasing trend, with the early birth cohort having a higher risk of tooth loss than the later birth cohort population. The age, period, and cohort effects were consistent for both sexes.ConclusionAlthough the standardized incidence, prevalence, and YLD rate and cohort effect of dentition loss in China are declining, they are still causing a severe burden to China due to the continued aging of the population and the rising period effect. Despite the decreasing trends of the standardized incidence and prevalence of dentition loss and the rate of YLDs, China should develop more effective oral disease prevention and control strategies to reduce the increasing burden of edentulism in the older adult, especially in older women.
| S-EPMC10174210 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe prevalence of thyroid cancer is rising worldwide. Although thyroid cancer has a favorable prognosis, up to 20% of patients experienced recurrent disease during the follow-up period. The present study aimed to examine the trend of incidence and factors associated with recurrence and outcomes of papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) in Thai patients over the last 30 years.MethodsWe reviewed the clinical data of all patients with PTC who were treated between 1987 and 2019 at Theptarin Hospital. Clinical characteristics, epidemic trend, factors associated with the persistence/recurrence of the disease, overall disease-specific survival rate, and overall disease-free survival rate were analysed.ResultsA total of 235 patients with PTC who were registered between 1987 and 2019 were reviewed. The mean age was 42.5 ± 14.3 years, with a mean follow-up of 9.5 years. Papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) was consistently increased and accounted for 21.4% (50/235) of total cases. The American Thyroid Association (ATA) risk stratification was high in 24% of all PTMCs in the last decade, and 16.0% of these patients experienced local recurrence during the follow-up period. Coexistence with Hashimoto's thyroiditis (HT) was found in one-fifth of the patients with PTC and was correlated with a low recurrence rate (HR: 0.16, P=0.013). Only age ≥55 years associated with the persistence/recurrence of the disease. The overall disease-free survival and disease-specific survival rates were 77.4% and 98.3%, respectively.ConclusionsThe prognosis of PTC is generally considered favorable. However, approximately one-fourth of patients with PTMC demonstrated more aggressive clinical behavior, particularly in the last decade of the study. Coexistence of HT contributed to a better prognosis.
| S-EPMC8131146 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ContextOver the past three decades, industry sponsored research expanded in the United States. Financial incentives can lead to potential conflicts of interest (COI) resulting in underreporting of negative study results.ObjectiveWe hypothesized that over the three decades, there would be an increase in: a) reporting of conflict of interest and source of funding; b) percentage of randomized control trials c) number of patients per study and d) industry funding.Data sources and study selectionOriginal articles published in three calendar years (1988, 1998, and 2008) in The Lancet, New England Journal of Medicine and Journal of American Medical Association were collected.Data extractionStudies were reviewed and investigational design categorized as prospective and retrospective clinical trials. Prospective trials were categorized into randomized or non-randomized and single-center or multi-center trials. Retrospective trials were categorized as registries, meta-analyses and other studies, mostly comprising of case reports or series. Study outcomes were categorized as positive or negative depending on whether the pre-specified hypothesis was met. Financial disclosures were researched for financial relationships and profit status, and accordingly categorized as government, non-profit or industry sponsored. Studies were assessed for reporting COI.Results1,671 original articles were included in this analysis. Total number of published studies decreased by 17% from 1988 to 2008. Over 20 year period, the proportion of prospective randomized trials increased from 22 to 46% (p < 0.0001); whereas the proportion of prospective non-randomized trials decreased from 59% to 27% (p < 0.001). There was an increase in the percentage of prospective randomized multi-center trials from 11% to 41% (p < 0.001). Conversely, there was a reduction in non-randomized single-center trials from 47% to 10% (p < 0.001). Proportion of government funded studies remained constant, whereas industry funded studies more than doubled (17% to 40%; p < 0.0001). The number of studies with negative results more than doubled (10% to 22%; p<0.0001). While lack of funding disclosure decreased from 35% to 7%, COI reporting increased from 2% to 84% (p < 0.0001).ConclusionImproved reporting of COI, clarity in financial sponsorship, increased publication of negative results in the setting of larger and better designed clinical trials represents a positive step forward in the scientific publications, despite the higher percentage of industry funded studies.
| S-EPMC5249065 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background: Unintentional falls seriously threaten the life and health of people in China. This study aimed to assess the long-term trends of mortality from unintentional falls in China and to examine the age-, period-, and cohort-specific effects behind them. Methods: This population-based multiyear cross-sectional study of Chinese people aged 0-84 years was a secondary analysis of the mortality data of fall injuries from 1990 to 2019, derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Age-standardized mortality rates of unintentional falls by year, sex, and age group were used as the main outcomes and were analyzed within the age-period-cohort framework. Results: Although the crude mortality rates of unintentional falls for men and women showed a significant upward trend, the age-standardized mortality rates for both sexes only increased slightly. The net drift of unintentional fall mortality was 0.13% (95% CI, -0.04 to 0.3%) per year for men and -0.71% (95% CI, -0.96 to -0.46%) per year for women. The local drift values for both sexes increased with age group. Significant age, cohort, and period effects were found behind the mortality trends of the unintentional falls for both sexes in China. Conclusions: Unintentional falls are still a major public health problem that disproportionately threatens the lives of men and women in China. Efforts should be put in place urgently to prevent the growing number of fall-related mortality for men over 40 years old and women over 70 years old. Gains observed in the recent period, relative risks (RRs), and cohort RRs may be related to improved healthcare and better education.
| S-EPMC8744467 | biostudies-literature