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Assessing the interplay between human mobility and mosquito borne diseases in urban environments.

ABSTRACT: Urbanization drives the epidemiology of infectious diseases to many threats and new challenges. In this research, we study the interplay between human mobility and dengue outbreaks in the complex urban environment of the city-state of Singapore. We integrate both stylized and mobile phone data-driven mobility patterns in an agent-based transmission model in which humans and mosquitoes are represented as agents that go through the epidemic states of dengue. We monitor with numerical simulations the system-level response to the epidemic by comparing our results with the observed cases reported during the 2013 and 2014 outbreaks. Our results show that human mobility is a major factor in the spread of vector-borne diseases such as dengue even on the short scale corresponding to intra-city distances. We finally discuss the advantages and the limits of mobile phone data and potential alternatives for assessing valuable mobility patterns for modeling vector-borne diseases outbreaks in cities.

SUBMITTER: Massaro E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6858332 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Assessing the interplay between human mobility and mosquito borne diseases in urban environments.

Massaro Emanuele E Kondor Daniel D Ratti Carlo C

Scientific reports 20191115 1

Urbanization drives the epidemiology of infectious diseases to many threats and new challenges. In this research, we study the interplay between human mobility and dengue outbreaks in the complex urban environment of the city-state of Singapore. We integrate both stylized and mobile phone data-driven mobility patterns in an agent-based transmission model in which humans and mosquitoes are represented as agents that go through the epidemic states of dengue. We monitor with numerical simulations t ...[more]

PMID: 31729435

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Project description:BackgroundClimate change is expected to increase the frequency of flooding events. Although rainfall is highly correlated with mosquito-borne diseases (MBD) in humans, less research focuses on understanding the impact of flooding events on disease incidence. This lack of research presents a significant gap in climate change-driven disease forecasting.ObjectivesWe conducted a scoping review to assess the strength of evidence regarding the potential relationship between flooding and MBD and to determine knowledge gaps.MethodsPubMed, Embase, and Web of Science were searched through 31 December 2020 and supplemented with review of citations in relevant publications. Studies on rainfall were included only if the operationalization allowed for distinction of unusually heavy rainfall events. Data were abstracted by disease (dengue, malaria, or other) and stratified by post-event timing of disease assessment. Studies that conducted statistical testing were summarized in detail.ResultsFrom 3,008 initial results, we included 131 relevant studies (dengue n=45, malaria n=61, other MBD n=49). Dengue studies indicated short-term (<1 month) decreases and subsequent (1-4 month) increases in incidence. Malaria studies indicated post-event incidence increases, but the results were mixed, and the temporal pattern was less clear. Statistical evidence was limited for other MBD, though findings suggest that human outbreaks of Murray Valley encephalitis, Ross River virus, Barmah Forest virus, Rift Valley fever, and Japanese encephalitis may follow flooding.DiscussionFlooding is generally associated with increased incidence of MBD, potentially following a brief decrease in incidence for some diseases. Methodological inconsistencies significantly limit direct comparison and generalizability of study results. Regions with established MBD and weather surveillance should be leveraged to conduct multisite research to a) standardize the quantification of relevant flooding, b) study nonlinear relationships between rainfall and disease, c) report outcomes at multiple lag periods, and d) investigate interacting factors that modify the likelihood and severity of outbreaks across different settings. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP8887.

Project description:BackgroundTransmission intensity for mosquito-borne diseases are highly heterogenous and multi-factorial. Understanding risk factors associated to disease transmission allow the optimization of vector control. This study sets out to understand and compare the combined anthropogenic and environmental risk factors of four major mosquito-borne diseases, dengue, malaria, chikungunya and Japanese encephalitis in Thailand.MethodsAn integrated analysis of mosquito-borne diseases, meteorological and ambient air pollutants of 76 provinces of Thailand was conducted over 2003-2021. We explored the use of generalized linear models and generalized additive models to consider both linear and non-linear associations between meteorological factors, ambient air pollutants and mosquito-borne disease incidence. Different assumptions on spatio-temporal dependence and nonlinearity were considered through province-specific and panel models, as well as different spline functions. Disease-specific model evidence was assessed to select best-fit models for epidemiological inference downstream.ResultsAnalyses indicated several findings which can be generally applied to all diseases explored: (1) higher AH above mean values was positively associated with disease case counts (2) higher total precipitation above mean values was positively associated with disease case counts (3) extremely high temperatures were negatively associated with disease case counts (4) higher SO2 and PM2.5 surface concentrations were negatively associated with disease case counts. However, the relationships between disease and RH, non-extreme temperatures and CO surface concentration were more mixed, with directions of associations changing across the different diseases considered.ConclusionsThis study found protective and enhancing effects of meteorological and ambient air pollutant factors on mosquito-borne diseases burdens in Thailand. Further studies should employ these factors to understand and predict risk factors associated with mosquito-borne disease transmission.

Project description:New insecticides are urgently needed because resistance to current insecticides allows resurgence of disease-transmitting mosquitoes while concerns for human toxicity from current compounds are growing. We previously reported the finding of a free cysteine (Cys) residue at the entrance of the active site of acetylcholinesterase (AChE) in some insects but not in mammals, birds, and fish. These insects have two AChE genes (AP and AO), and only AP-AChE carries the Cys residue. Most of these insects are disease vectors such as the African malaria mosquito (Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto) or crop pests such as aphids. Recently we reported a Cys-targeting small molecule that irreversibly inhibited all AChE activity extracted from aphids while an identical exposure caused no effect on the human AChE. Full inhibition of AChE in aphids indicates that AP-AChE contributes most of the enzymatic activity and suggests that the Cys residue might serve as a target for developing better aphicides. It is therefore worth investigating whether the Cys-targeting strategy is applicable to mosquitocides. Herein, we report that, under conditions that spare the human AChE, a methanethiosulfonate-containing molecule at 6 microM irreversibly inhibited 95% of the AChE activity extracted from An. gambiae s. str. and >80% of the activity from the yellow fever mosquito (Aedes aegypti L.) or the northern house mosquito (Culex pipiens L.) that is a vector of St. Louis encephalitis. This type of inhibition is fast ( approximately 30 min) and due to conjugation of the inhibitor to the active-site Cys of mosquito AP-AChE, according to our observed reactivation of the methanethiosulfonate-inhibited AChE by 2-mercaptoethanol. We also note that our sulfhydryl agents partially and irreversibly inhibited the human AChE after prolonged exposure (>4 hr). This slow inhibition is due to partial enzyme denaturation by the inhibitor and/or micelles of the inhibitor, according to our studies using atomic force microscopy, circular dichroism spectroscopy, X-ray crystallography, time-resolved fluorescence spectroscopy, and liquid chromatography triple quadrupole mass spectrometry. These results support our view that the mosquito-specific Cys is a viable target for developing new mosquitocides to control disease vectors and to alleviate resistance problems with reduced toxicity toward non-target species.

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Assessing the interplay between human mobility and mosquito borne diseases in urban environments.

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Assessing the interplay between human mobility and mosquito borne diseases in urban environments.

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