Toward evidence-based medical statistics: a Bayesian analysis of double-blind placebo-controlled antidepressant trials in the treatment of anxiety disorders.
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SUBMITTER: Monden R
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6860243 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Dec
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Toward evidence-based medical statistics: a Bayesian analysis of double-blind placebo-controlled antidepressant trials in the treatment of anxiety disorders.
Monden Rei R de Vos Stijn S Morey Richard R Wagenmakers Eric-Jan EJ de Jonge Peter P Roest Annelieke M AM
International journal of methods in psychiatric research 20160524 4
The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) uses a p < 0.05 null-hypothesis significance testing framework to evaluate "substantial evidence" for drug efficacy. This framework only allows dichotomous conclusions and does not quantify the strength of evidence supporting efficacy. The efficacy of FDA-approved antidepressants for the treatment of anxiety disorders was re-evaluated in a Bayesian framework that quantifies the strength of the evidence. Data from 58 double-blind placebo-controlled trials we ...[more]
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Project description:ObjectiveTo compare adverse events (AEs), suicidality, and AE-related discontinuation in double-blind, placebo-controlled trials of pediatric patients with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) and anxiety disorders treated with selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) or serotonin-norepinephrine reuptake inhibitors (SNRIs).MethodMEDLINE, PubMed, Web of Science, PsycINFO, and Embase were searched for peer-reviewed, English-language articles from inception through March 1, 2019. We identified prospective, randomized SSRI and SNRI studies in patients <18 years of age with OCD or generalized, separation, or social anxiety disorders. AE rates were extracted and medication-placebo differences were examined using Bayesian hierarchical models, then posterior estimates of relative risk (RR) were determined for each AE by medication class and disorder.ResultsData were included from 18 trials (2,631 patients) and 7 medications (16 SSRI and 4 SNRI trials). Compared with placebo, SSRIs were associated with a greater likelihood of AE-related discontinuation (RR 3.59, credible interval [CrI] 0.019-0.067, p = .0003), activation (RR 2.39, CrI 0.048-0.125, p = .003), sedation (RR 1.94, CrI 0.035-0.157, p = .002), insomnia (RR 1.93, CrI 0.040-0.149, p = .001), abdominal pain (RR 1.53, CrI 0.032-0.164, p = .005), and headache (RR 1.24, CrI 0.003-0.139, p = .04). Activation was more common with SSRIs (versus SNRIs, RR 1.32, CrI 0.018-0.114, p = .007). Neither SSRIs nor SNRIs were associated with treatment-emergent suicidality.ConclusionIn pediatric OCD and anxiety disorders, SSRIs (compared with placebo) are associated with distinct AEs and greater AE-related discontinuation, although their tolerability does not differ between anxiety disorders and OCD. Compared with SNRIs, SSRIs are more likely to produce activation. Class-related AEs are important for clinicians to consider, particularly in light of data suggesting differences in class-related efficacy. Whereas SSRIs are superior to SNRIs and the treatment of choice for anxiety, for youths who become activated on SSRIs, SNRIs might represent a good second choice given their reported efficacy and lower risk of activation.
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Project description:BackgroundIn medical training, statistics is considered a very difficult course to learn and teach. Current studies have found that students' attitudes toward statistics can influence their learning process. Measuring, evaluating and monitoring the changes of students' attitudes toward statistics are important. Few studies have focused on the attitudes of postgraduates, especially medical postgraduates. Our purpose was to understand current attitudes regarding statistics held by medical postgraduates and explore their effects on students' achievement. We also wanted to explore the influencing factors and the sources of these attitudes and monitor their changes after a systematic statistics course.MethodsA total of 539 medical postgraduates enrolled in a systematic statistics course completed the pre-form of the Survey of Attitudes Toward Statistics -28 scale, and 83 postgraduates were selected randomly from among them to complete the post-form scale after the course.ResultsMost medical postgraduates held positive attitudes toward statistics, but they thought statistics was a very difficult subject. The attitudes mainly came from experiences in a former statistical or mathematical class. Age, level of statistical education, research experience, specialty and mathematics basis may influence postgraduate attitudes toward statistics. There were significant positive correlations between course achievement and attitudes toward statistics. In general, student attitudes showed negative changes after completing a statistics course.ConclusionsThe importance of student attitudes toward statistics must be recognized in medical postgraduate training. To make sure all students have a positive learning environment, statistics teachers should measure their students' attitudes and monitor their change of status during a course. Some necessary assistance should be offered for those students who develop negative attitudes.
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Project description:The purpose of this study was to examine the efficacy of cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) for anxiety-related disorders based on randomized placebo-controlled trials. We included 41 studies that randomly assigned patients (N = 2,843) with acute stress disorder, generalized anxiety disorder (GAD), obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD), panic disorder (PD), posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), or social anxiety disorder (SAD) to CBT or a psychological or pill placebo condition. Findings demonstrated moderate placebo-controlled effects of CBT on target disorder symptoms (Hedges' g = 0.56), and small to moderate effects on other anxiety symptoms (Hedges' g = 0.38), depression (Hedges' g = 0.31), and quality of life (Hedges' g = 0.30). Response rates in CBT compared to placebo were associated with an odds ratio of 2.97. Effects on the target disorder were significantly stronger for completer samples than intent-to-treat samples, and for individuals compared to group CBT in SAD and PTSD studies. Large effect sizes were found for OCD, GAD, and acute stress disorder, and small to moderate effect sizes were found for PTSD, SAD, and PD. In PTSD studies, dropout rates were greater in CBT (29.0%) compared to placebo (17.2%), but no difference in dropout was found across other disorders. Interventions primarily using exposure strategies had larger effect sizes than those using cognitive or cognitive and behavioral techniques, though this difference did not reach significance. Findings demonstrate that CBT is a moderately efficacious treatment for anxiety disorders when compared to placebo. More effective treatments are especially needed for PTSD, SAD, and PD.
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Project description:BACKGROUND:Antidepressant medications offer an effective treatment for depression, yet nearly 50% of patients either do not respond or have side-effects rendering them unable to continue the course of treatment. Mechanistic studies might help advance the pharmacology of depression by identifying pathways through which treatments exert their effects. Toward this goal, we aimed to identify the effects of antidepressant treatment on neural connectivity, the relationship with symptom improvement, and to test whether these effects were reproducible across two studies. METHODS:We completed two double-blind, placebo-controlled trials of SNRI antidepressant medications with MRI scans obtained before and after treatment. One was a 10-week trial of duloxetine (30-120 mg daily; mean 92·1 mg/day [SD 30·00]) and the other was a 12-week trial of desvenlafaxine (50-100 mg daily; 93·6 mg/day [16·47]). Participants consisted of adults with persistent depressive disorder. Adjusting for sex and age, we examined the effect of treatment on whole-brain functional connectivity. We also examined correlations between change in functional connectivity and improvement in symptoms of depression (24-item Hamilton Depression Rating Scale) and pain symptom severity (Symptom Checklist-90-Revised). FINDINGS:Participants were enrolled between Jan 26, 2006, and Nov 22, 2011, for the duloxetine RCT and Aug 5, 2012, and Jan 28, 2016, for the desvenlafaxine RCT. Before and after treatment MRI scans were collected in 32 participants for the duloxetine RCT and 34 participants for the desvenlafaxine RCT. In both studies, antidepressants decreased functional connectivity compared with placebo (duloxetine study: ?=-0·06; 95% CI -0·08 to -0·03; p<0·0001, ?p2=0·44; desvenlafaxine study: -0·06, -0·09 to -0·03; p<0·0001, ?p2=0·35) within a thalamo-cortico-periaqueductal network that has previously been associated with the experience of pain. Within the active drug groups, reductions in functional connectivity within this network correlated with improvements in depressive symptom severity in both studies (duloxetine study: r=0·38, 95% CI 0·01-0·65; p=0·0426; desvenlafaxine study: 0·44, 0·10-0·69; p=0·0138) and pain symptoms in the desvenlafaxine study (0·39, 0·04 to 0·65; p=0·0299). INTERPRETATION:The findings suggest the thalamo-cortico-periaqueductal network associated with the experience of pain is a new and potentially important target for novel antidepressant therapeutics. FUNDING:National Mental Health Institute, Eli Lilly and Company, Pfizer Pharmaceuticals, and the Edwin S Webster Foundation.
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Project description:The increasing rate of failure of antidepressant clinical trials has led to the assertion that antidepressants do not have meaningful clinical benefits. Our hypothesis was that the decrease in antidepressant-placebo differences in antidepressant clinical trials over the past three decades could be explained by changes in research design features rather than a lack of potency of the antidepressants being tested. We collected data from 130 double blind placebo controlled antidepressant clinical trials conducted between 1981 and 2008 that included 35,122 depressed patients with 23,157 patients assigned to antidepressants and 11,965 assigned to placebo. We conducted a hierarchical regression analysis of change in HAM-D scores in antidepressant and placebo groups separately with year of publication, and research design features as independent variables. We found that antidepressant-placebo differences in antidepressant clinical trials have declined markedly over the past three decades. Decline in change scores in the antidepressant group was related to mean total baseline HAM-D scores in the trial, the version of HAM-D used, and duration of trial. Similarly, decline in change scores in the placebo group was related to mean total baseline HAM-D scores, duration of trial, and year of publication. Overall, we found that antidepressant-placebo differences were statistically significantly higher in trials that used HAM-D 21 rather than HAM-D 17 and in trials that lasted 6 weeks or less. These data suggest that, apart from the efficacy of the antidepressant being tested, factors such as baseline HAM-D scores, version of HAM-D used and duration of trial have a significant impact on outcome. As such a clinician's assessment of the usefulness of antidepressants should not be based solely on the results of such clinical trials. In the meantime there is a need for continuing research to improve the methodology of antidepressant clinical trials. These data suggest that many aspects of the design of antidepressant trials have a significant impact on outcome. Further, these data suggest that the results of more recent placebo controlled trials do not adequately inform clinicians about the potential utility of antidepressants.
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Project description:Background:There is debate in the literature as to whether inclusion of a placebo arm may alter characteristics of antidepressant trials. However, previous research has focused on response rates of various antidepressants on average only, ignoring potential differences among drugs or other aspects of trial findings. Little is known about the impact of a placebo arm on all-cause dropout and dropout due to adverse events. Methods:We carried out a systematic review of published and unpublished double-blind randomized controlled trials (RCTs) for the acute treatment of unipolar major depression (update: January 2016). The probability of being allocated to placebo (?) was the exposure of interest, and we examined its influence on responders (efficacy), all-cause dropouts (acceptability) and dropouts due to adverse events (tolerability), while accounting for differences in drugs, trials and patient characteristics in multivariate random effects meta-regression. Results:We included 421 studies (68 305 participants) comparing 16 antidepressants or placebo; ? ranged from 20% to 50%. Response rate was lower [risk ratio (RR) 0.87; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.83, 0.92] and all-cause dropout rate higher (RR 1.19; 95% CI 1.08, 1.31) for the same antidepressants in placebo-controlled trials compared with head-to-head trials. The probability of responding decreased by 3% (95% CI 2-5%) for every 10% increase in ?, whereas the risk of all-cause dropout increased by 4% (95% CI 1-7%). Tolerability was unaffected by ?. Response rate was inversely correlated with dropouts due to any cause (correlation coefficient -0.48; 95% CI -0.58, -0.36) and due to adverse events (-0.34; 95% CI -0.44, -0.23). Conclusions:For the same antidepressant, response rate was on average smaller and dropouts higher when placebo was included; however, no association was found with dropouts due to adverse events. Decreased patient expectations, larger dropout rates and use of inappropriate statistical methods to impute missing data may explain this phenomenon. The findings call for caution in the integration of randomized evidence involving placebo arms.
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Project description:BackgroundIndirect comparisons of competing treatments by network meta-analysis (NMA) are increasingly in use. Reporting bias has received little attention in this context. We aimed to assess the impact of such bias in NMAs.MethodsWe used data from 74 FDA-registered placebo-controlled trials of 12 antidepressants and their 51 matching publications. For each dataset, NMA was used to estimate the effect sizes for 66 possible pair-wise comparisons of these drugs, the probabilities of being the best drug and ranking the drugs. To assess the impact of reporting bias, we compared the NMA results for the 51 published trials and those for the 74 FDA-registered trials. To assess how reporting bias affecting only one drug may affect the ranking of all drugs, we performed 12 different NMAs for hypothetical analysis. For each of these NMAs, we used published data for one drug and FDA data for the 11 other drugs.FindingsPair-wise effect sizes for drugs derived from the NMA of published data and those from the NMA of FDA data differed in absolute value by at least 100% in 30 of 66 pair-wise comparisons (45%). Depending on the dataset used, the top 3 agents differed, in composition and order. When reporting bias hypothetically affected only one drug, the affected drug ranked first in 5 of the 12 NMAs but second (n?=?2), fourth (n?=?1) or eighth (n?=?2) in the NMA of the complete FDA network.ConclusionsIn this particular network, reporting bias biased NMA-based estimates of treatments efficacy and modified ranking. The reporting bias effect in NMAs may differ from that in classical meta-analyses in that reporting bias affecting only one drug may affect the ranking of all drugs.
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2023-04-27 | GSE223554 | GEO