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Commonly used estimates of the genetic contribution to disease are subject to the same fallacies as bad luck estimates.

ABSTRACT: The scientific debate following the initial formulation of the "bad luck" hypothesis in cancer development highlighted how measures based on analysis of variance are inappropriately used for risk communication. The notion of "explained" variance is not only used to quantify randomness, but also to quantify genetic and environmental contribution to disease in heritability coefficients. In this paper, we demonstrate why such quantifications are generally as problematic as bad luck estimates. We stress the differences in calculation and interpretation between the heritability coefficient and the population attributable fraction, the estimated fraction of all disease events that would not occur if an intervention could successfully prevent the excess genetic risk. We recommend using the population attributable fraction when communicating results regarding the genetic contribution to disease, as this measure is both more relevant from a public health perspective and easier to understand.

SUBMITTER: Bjork J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6861200 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Commonly used estimates of the genetic contribution to disease are subject to the same fallacies as bad luck estimates.

Björk Jonas J Andersson Tomas T Ahlbom Anders A

European journal of epidemiology 20191022 11

The scientific debate following the initial formulation of the "bad luck" hypothesis in cancer development highlighted how measures based on analysis of variance are inappropriately used for risk communication. The notion of "explained" variance is not only used to quantify randomness, but also to quantify genetic and environmental contribution to disease in heritability coefficients. In this paper, we demonstrate why such quantifications are generally as problematic as bad luck estimates. We st ...[more]

PMID: 31641918

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Project description:A variety of methods is used for a molecular typing of Enterococcus spp. and related gram-positive bacteria including macrorestriction analysis using pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE), ribotyping, rapid amplification of polymorphic DNA (RAPD), and amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP). To test the influence of transferable determinants on the outcome of different typing methods commonly used for enterococci, we established a homogenous strain collection of 24 transconjugants resulting from filter matings with antibiotic-resistant Enterococcus faecium. As expected, AFLP, RAPD, and PFGE all identified our model bacteria as strongly related. However, distinct differences in the resolving and discriminatory power of the tested methods could be clearly addressed. In PFGE, 22 of 24 transconjugants possessed less than a three-band difference to the recipient pattern and would be regarded as strongly related. Three different RAPD PCRs were tested; in two reactions, identical patterns for all transconjugants and the recipient were produced. One RAPD PCR produced an identical pattern for 18 transconjugants and the recipient and a clearly different pattern for the remaining 6 transconjugants due to a newly appearing fragment resulting from acquisition of the tetL gene. AFLP clusters all transconjugants into a group of major relatedness. Percent similarities were highly dependent on the method used for calculating the similarity coefficient (curve-based versus band-based similarity coefficient). Fragment patterns of digested plasmids showed the possession of nonidentical plasmids in most transconjugants. PFGE still could be recommended as the method of choice. Nevertheless, the more-modern AFLP approach produces patterns of comparable discriminatory power while possessing some advantages over PFGE (less-time-consuming internal standards). Plasmid fingerprints can be included to subdifferentiate enterococcal isolates possessing identical macrorestriction and PCR typing patterns.

Dataset Information

Commonly used estimates of the genetic contribution to disease are subject to the same fallacies as bad luck estimates.

Publications

Commonly used estimates of the genetic contribution to disease are subject to the same fallacies as bad luck estimates.

Similar Datasets

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