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Prognostic value of the model for end-stage liver disease excluding INR score (MELD-XI) in patients with adult congenital heart disease.

ABSTRACT: Patients with adult congenital heart disease (ACHD) are at increased risk of developing late cardiovascular complication. However, little is known about the predictive factors for long-term outcome. The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease eXcluding INR (MELD-XI) score was originally developed to assess cirrhotic patients and has the prognostic value for heart failure (HF) patients. In the present study, we examined whether the score also has the prognostic value in this population. We retrospectively examined 637 ACHD patients (mean age 31.0 years) who visited our Tohoku University hospital from 1995 to 2015. MELD-XI score was calculated as follows; 11.76 x ln(serum creatinine) + 5.11 x ln(serum total bilirubin) + 9.44. We compared the long-term outcomes between the high (?10.4) and the low (<10.4) score groups. The cutoff value of MELD-XI score was determined based on the survival classification and regression tree (CART) analysis. The major adverse cardiac event (MACE) was defined as a composite of cardiac death, HF hospitalization, and lethal ventricular arrhythmias. During a mean follow-up period of 8.6 years (interquartile range 4.4-11.4 years), MACE was noted in 51 patients, including HF hospitalization in 37, cardiac death in 8, and lethal ventricular arrhythmias in 6. In Kaplan-Meier analysis, the high score group had significantly worse MACE-free survival compared with the low score group (log-rank, P<0.001). Multivariable Cox regression analysis showed that the MELD-XI score remained a significant predictor of MACE (hazard ratio 1.36, confidence interval 1.17-1.58, P<0.001) even after adjusting for patient characteristics, such as sex, functional status, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and cardiac function. Furthermore, CART analysis revealed that the MELD-XI score was the most important variable for predicting MACE. These results demonstrate that the MELD-XI score can effectively predict MACE in ACHD patients, indicating that ACHD patients with high MELD-XI score need to be closely followed.

SUBMITTER: Konno R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6863541 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Prognostic value of the model for end-stage liver disease excluding INR score (MELD-XI) in patients with adult congenital heart disease.

Konno Ryo R Tatebe Shunsuke S Sugimura Koichiro K Satoh Kimio K Aoki Tatsuo T Miura Masanobu M Suzuki Hideaki H Yamamoto Saori S Sato Haruka H Terui Yosuke Y Miyata Satoshi S Adachi Osamu O Kimura Masato M Saiki Yoshikatsu Y Shimokawa Hiroaki H

PloS one 20191119 11

Patients with adult congenital heart disease (ACHD) are at increased risk of developing late cardiovascular complication. However, little is known about the predictive factors for long-term outcome. The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease eXcluding INR (MELD-XI) score was originally developed to assess cirrhotic patients and has the prognostic value for heart failure (HF) patients. In the present study, we examined whether the score also has the prognostic value in this population. We retrospectiv ...[more]

PMID: 31743362

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Project description:PurposeMELD-XI, an adapted version of Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score excluding INR, was reported to predict outcomes e.g. in patients with acute heart failure. We aimed to evaluate MELD-XI in critically ill patients admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) for prognostic relevance.MethodsA total of 4381 medical patients (66±14 years, 2862 male) admitted to a German ICU between 2004 and 2009 were included and retrospectively investigated. Admission diagnoses were e.g. myocardial infarction (n = 2034), sepsis (n = 694) and heart failure (n = 688). We divided our patients in two cohorts basing on their MELD-XI score and evaluated the MELD-XI score for its prognostic relevance regarding short-term and long-term survival. Optimal cut-offs were calculated by means of the Youden-Index.ResultsPatients with a MELD-XI score >12 had pronounced laboratory signs of organ failure and more comorbidities. MELD-XI >12 was associated with an increase in short-term (27% vs 6%; HR 4.82, 95%CI 3.93-5.93; p<0.001) and long-term (HR 3.69, 95%CI 3.20-4.25; p<0.001) mortality. In a univariate Cox regression analysis for all patients MELD-XI was associated with increased long-term mortality (changes per score point: HR 1.06, 95%CI 1.05-1.07; p<0.001) and remained to be associated with increased mortality after correction in a multivariate regression analysis for renal failure, liver failure, lactate concentration, blood glucose concentration, oxygenation and white blood count (HR 1.04, 95%CI 1.03-1.06; p<0.001). Optimal cut-off for the overall cohort was 11 and varied remarkably depending on the admission diagnosis: myocardial infarction (9), pulmonary embolism (9), cardiopulmonary resuscitation (17) and pneumonia (17). We performed ROC-analysis and compared the AUC: SAPS2 (0.78, 95%CI 0.76-0.80; p<0.0001) and APACHE (0.76, 95%CI 0.74-0.78; p<0.003) score were superior to MELD-XI (0.71, 95%CI 0.68-0.73) for prediction of mortality.ConclusionsThe easily calculable MELD-XI score is a robust and reliable tool to predict both intra-ICU and long-term mortality in critically ill medical patients admitted to an ICU. Optimal cut-off values for MELD-XI scores seem to depend on the primary disease and need to be validated in future prospective studies. Compared to SAPS2 and APACHE score, MELD-XI lacks precision but might have comparable and even additive value, as it is easily available and independent of subjective values.

Project description:ObjectiveThough the prognostic value of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score in tricuspid surgery was confirmed, the unstable international normalized ratio (INR) may affect the evaluation effectiveness of the MELD score for isolated tricuspid valve replacement (ITVR). The aim of the study was to assess the prognostic value of modified MELD for ITVR.Methods and resultsA total of 152 patients who underwent ITVR were evaluated. The adverse outcome was defined as in-hospital mortality after surgery. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis demonstrated that a modified MELD score with albumin replacing INR (MELD-albumin) score presented well prognostic value [area under the curve (AUC) = 0.731, p = 0.006] for in-hospital mortality. Through Cox regression and further interval validation, the MELD-albumin score was identified as an independent predictor for in-hospital mortality. The optimal cutoff value of MELD-albumin was identified as 8.58 through maximally selected log-rank statistics. In addition, restricted cubic spline analysis demonstrated the linear inverse relationship between MELD-albumin and hazard ratio (HR) for in-hospital mortality. Kaplan-Meier analysis illustrated that in-hospital mortality was increased significantly in the high MELD-albumin (MELD-albumin ≥8.58) group than in the low MELD-albumin group (MELD-albumin <8.58; p < 0.001). Furthermore, high MELD-albumin was associated with lower body mass index (BMI), the incidence of lower extremities edema and moderate drinking history, and the MELD-albumin score was correlated with the value of aspartate transaminase (AST), alanine transaminase (ALT), and albumin. Furthermore, the incidence of renal failure (p = 0.003) and pulmonary infection (p = 0.042) was increased significantly in the high MELD-albumin group.ConclusionThe MELD-albumin score could provide prognostic value for ITVR. In addition, the MELD-albumin score was useful in risk stratification and patient selection for patients with tricuspid regurgitation (TR) prior to ITVR.

Dataset Information

Prognostic value of the model for end-stage liver disease excluding INR score (MELD-XI) in patients with adult congenital heart disease.

Publications

Prognostic value of the model for end-stage liver disease excluding INR score (MELD-XI) in patients with adult congenital heart disease.

Similar Datasets

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