Impact of weather seasonality and sexual transmission on the spread of Zika fever.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Denes A
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6863851 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Nov
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Impact of weather seasonality and sexual transmission on the spread of Zika fever.
Dénes Attila A Ibrahim Mahmoud A MA Oluoch Lillian L Tekeli Miklós M Tekeli Tamás T
Scientific reports 20191119 1
We establish a compartmental model to study the transmission of Zika virus disease including spread through sexual contacts and the role of asymptomatic carriers. To incorporate the impact of the seasonality of weather on the spread of Zika, we apply a nonautonomous model with time-dependent mosquito birth rate and biting rate, which allows us to explain the differing outcome of the epidemic in different countries of South America: using Latin Hypercube Sampling for fitting, we were able to repr ...[more]
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Project description:BackgroundThe survival of coronaviruses are influenced by weather conditions and seasonal coronaviruses are more common in winter months. We examine the seasonality of respiratory infections in England and Wales and the associations between weather parameters and seasonal coronavirus cases.MethodsRespiratory virus disease data for England and Wales between 1989 and 2019 was extracted from the Second-Generation Surveillance System (SGSS) database used for routine surveillance. Seasonal coronaviruses from 2012 to 2019 were compared to daily average weather parameters for the period before the patient's specimen date with a range of lag periods.ResultsThe seasonal distribution of 985,524 viral infections in England and Wales (1989-2019) showed coronavirus infections had a similar seasonal distribution to influenza A and bocavirus, with a winter peak between weeks 2 to 8. Ninety percent of infections occurred where the daily mean ambient temperatures were below 10 °C; where daily average global radiation exceeded 500 kJ/m2/h; where sunshine was less than 5 h per day; or where relative humidity was above 80%. Coronavirus infections were significantly more common where daily average global radiation was under 300 kJ/m2/h (OR 4.3; CI 3.9-4.6; p < 0.001); where average relative humidity was over 84% (OR 1.9; CI 3.9-4.6; p < 0.001); where average air temperature was below 10 °C (OR 6.7; CI 6.1-7.3; p < 0.001) or where sunshine was below 4 h (OR 2.4; CI 2.2-2.6; p < 0.001) when compared to the distribution of weather values for the same time period. Seasonal coronavirus infections in children under 3 years old were more frequent at the start of an annual epidemic than at the end, suggesting that the size of the susceptible child population may be important in the annual cycle.ConclusionsThe dynamics of seasonal coronaviruses reflect immunological, weather, social and travel drivers of infection. Evidence from studies on different coronaviruses suggest that low temperature and low radiation/sunlight favour survival. This implies a seasonal increase in SARS-CoV-2 may occur in the UK and countries with a similar climate as a result of an increase in the R0 associated with reduced temperatures and solar radiation. Increased measures to reduce transmission will need to be introduced in winter months for COVID-19.
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Project description:Zika virus (ZIKV) can be transmitted by mosquito bite or sexual contact. Using mice that lack the type I interferon receptor, we examined sexual transmission of ZIKV. Electron microscopy analyses showed association of virions with developing sperm within testes as well as with mature sperm within epididymis. When ZIKV-infected male mice were mated with naive female mice, the weight of fetuses at embryonic day 18.5 was significantly reduced compared with the control group. Additionally, we found ocular deformities in a minority of the fetuses. These results suggest that ZIKV causes fetal abnormalities after female mating with an infected male.
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Project description:Case reports of Zika virus (ZIKV) sexual transmission and genital persistence are mounting. Venereal transmission and genital persistence threaten public health within and beyond the range of ZIKV's mosquito vectors. In this study, we administered ZIKV into the vaginas of AG129 mice and LysMCre+IFNARfl/fl C57BL/6 mice after hormonal treatments. Mice infected during estrus-like phase were resistant to vaginal infection. In contrast, when infected during diestrus-like phase, AG129 mice succumbed to infection, whereas LysMCre+IFNARfl/fl mice experienced transient illness. Patency of transgenital transmission (TGT) in diestrus-like mice was demonstrated by detection of viremia and ZIKV replication in spleen and brain, and viral RNA persisted in vaginal washes as late as 10 days post-infection. In these lethal and sublethal mouse models, this study indicates that intravaginal deposition of ZIKV can cause TGT, hormonal changes in the female reproductive tract (FRT) influence transmission, and ZIKV replication persists in the FRT for several days.
| S-EPMC5193244 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundHealth authorities in the United States and Europe reported an increasing number of travel-associated episodes of sexual transmission of Zika virus (ZIKV) following the 2015-2017 ZIKV outbreak. This, and other scientific evidence, suggests that ZIKV is sexually transmissible in addition to having its primary mosquito-borne route. The objective of this systematic review and evidence synthesis was to clarify the epidemiology of sexually transmitted ZIKV.Methods and findingsWe performed a living (i.e., continually updated) systematic review of evidence published up to 15 April 2018 about sexual transmission of ZIKV and other arthropod-borne flaviviruses in humans and other animals. We defined 7 key elements of ZIKV sexual transmission for which we extracted data: (1) rectal and vaginal susceptibility to infection, (2) incubation period following sexual transmission, (3) serial interval between the onset of symptoms in a primary and secondary infected individuals, (4) duration of infectiousness, (5) reproduction number, (6) probability of transmission per sex act, and (7) transmission rate. We identified 1,227 unique publications and included 128, of which 77 presented data on humans and 51 presented data on animals. Laboratory experiments confirm that rectal and vaginal mucosae are susceptible to infection with ZIKV and that the testis serves as a reservoir for the virus in animal models. Sexual transmission was reported in 36 human couples: 34/36 of these involved male-to-female sexual transmission. The median serial symptom onset interval in 15 couples was 12 days (interquartile range: 10-14.5); the maximum was 44 days. We found evidence from 2 prospective cohorts that ZIKV RNA is present in human semen with a median duration of 34 days (95% CI: 28-41 days) and 35 days (no CI given) (low certainty of evidence, according to GRADE). Aggregated data about detection of ZIKV RNA from 37 case reports and case series indicate a median duration of detection of ZIKV of 40 days (95% CI: 30-49 days) and maximum duration of 370 days in semen. In human vaginal fluid, median duration was 14 days (95% CI: 7-20 days) and maximum duration was 37 days (very low certainty). Infectious virus in human semen was detected for a median duration of 12 days (95% CI: 1-21 days) and maximum of 69 days. Modelling studies indicate that the reproduction number is below 1 (very low certainty). Evidence was lacking to estimate the incubation period or the transmission rate. Evidence on sexual transmission of other flaviviruses was scarce. The certainty of the evidence is limited because of uncontrolled residual bias.ConclusionsThe living systematic review and sexual transmission framework allowed us to assess evidence about the risk of sexual transmission of ZIKV. ZIKV is more likely transmitted from men to women than from women to men. For other flaviviruses, evidence of sexual transmissibility is still absent. Taking into account all available data about the duration of detection of ZIKV in culture and from the serial interval, our findings suggest that the infectious period for sexual transmission of ZIKV is shorter than estimates from the earliest post-outbreak studies, which were based on reverse transcription PCR alone.
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Project description:BackgroundZika virus (ZIKV) can be transmitted sexually but the risk of sexual transmission remains unknown. Most evidence of sexual transmission is from partners of infected travelers returning from areas with ZIKV circulation.MethodsWe used data from the US national arboviral disease surveillance system on travel- and sexually acquired ZIKV disease cases during 2016-2017 to develop individual-level simulations for estimating risk of male-to-female, male-to-male, and female-to-male sexual transmission of ZIKV via vaginal and/or anal intercourse. We specified parametric distributions to characterize individual-level variability of parameters for ZIKV persistence and sexual behaviors.ResultsUsing ZIKV RNA persistence in semen/vaginal fluids to approximate infectiousness duration, male-to-male transmission had the highest estimated probability (1.3% [95% confidence interval, CI, .4%-6.0%] per anal sex act), followed by male-to-female and female-to-male transmission (0.4% [95% CI, .3%-.6%] per vaginal/anal sex act and 0.1% [95% CI, 0%-.8%] per vaginal sex act, respectively). Models using viral isolation in semen vs RNA detection to approximate infectiousness duration predicted greater risk of sexual transmission.ConclusionsWhile likely insufficient to maintain sustained transmission, the estimated risk of ZIKV transmission through unprotected sex is not trivial and is especially important for pregnant women, as ZIKV infection can cause severe congenital disorders.
| S-EPMC10015296 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundCampylobacteriosis is a major public health concern. The weather factors that influence spatial and seasonal distributions are not fully understood.MethodsTo investigate the impacts of temperature and rainfall on Campylobacter infections in England and Wales, cases of Campylobacter were linked to local temperature and rainfall at laboratory postcodes in the 30 days before the specimen date. Methods for investigation included a comparative conditional incidence, wavelet, clustering, and time series analyses.ResultsThe increase of Campylobacter infections in the late spring was significantly linked to temperature two weeks before, with an increase in conditional incidence of 0.175 cases per 100,000 per week for weeks 17 to 24; the relationship to temperature was not linear. Generalized structural time series model revealed that changes in temperature accounted for 33.3% of the expected cases of Campylobacteriosis, with an indication of the direction and relevant temperature range. Wavelet analysis showed a strong annual cycle with additional harmonics at four and six months. Cluster analysis showed three clusters of seasonality with geographic similarities representing metropolitan, rural, and other areas.ConclusionsThe association of Campylobacteriosis with temperature is likely to be indirect. High-resolution spatial temporal linkage of weather parameters and cases is important in improving weather associations with infectious diseases. The primary driver of Campylobacter incidence remains to be determined; other avenues, such as insect contamination of chicken flocks through poor biosecurity should be explored.
| S-EPMC6417031 | biostudies-literature