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Molecular Variants and Their Risks for Malignancy in Cytologically Indeterminate Thyroid Nodules.

ABSTRACT: Background: Gene panels are routinely used to assess predisposition to hereditary cancers by simultaneously testing multiple susceptibility genes and/or variants. More recently, genetic panels have been implemented as part of solid tumor malignancy testing assessing somatic alterations. One example is targeted variant panels for thyroid nodules that are not conclusively malignant or benign upon fine-needle aspiration (FNA). We systematically reviewed published studies from 2009 to 2018 that contained genetic data from preoperative FNA specimens on cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules (ITNs) that subsequently underwent surgical resection. Pooled prevalence estimates per gene and variant, along with their respective positive predictive values (PPVs) for malignancy, were calculated. Summary: Our systematic search identified 540 studies that were supplemented by 18 studies from bibliographies or personal files. Sixty-one studies met all inclusion criteria and included >4600 ITNs. Overall, 26% of nodules contained at least 1 variant or fusion. However, half of them did not include details on the specific gene, variant, and/or complete fusion pair reported for inclusion toward PPV calculations. The PPVs of genomic alterations reported at least 10 times were limited to BRAF^V600E (98%, 95% confidence interval [CI 96-99%]), PAX8/PPARG (55% [CI 34-78%]), HRAS^Q61R (45% [CI 22-72%]), BRAF^K601E (42% [CI 19-68%]), and NRAS^Q61R (38% [CI 23-55%]). Excluding BRAF^V600E, the pooled PPV for all other specified variants and fusions was 47%. Multiple variants within the same nodule were identified in ?1% of ITN and carried a cumulative PPV of 77%. Conclusions: The chance that a genomic alteration predicts malignancy depends on the individual variant or fusion detected. Only five alterations were reported at least 10 times; BRAF^V600E had a PPV of 98%, while the remaining four had individual PPVs ranging from 38% to 55%. The small sample size of most variants and fusion pairs found among ITNs, however, limits confidence in their individual PPV point estimates. Better specific reporting of genomic alterations with cytological category, histological subtype, and cancer staging would facilitate better understanding of cancer prediction, and the independent contribution of the genomic profile to prognosis.

SUBMITTER: Goldner WS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6864764 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Molecular Variants and Their Risks for Malignancy in Cytologically Indeterminate Thyroid Nodules.

Goldner Whitney S WS Angell Trevor E TE McAdoo Sallie Lou SL Babiarz Joshua J Sadow Peter M PM Nabhan Fadi A FA Nasr Christian C Kloos Richard T RT

Thyroid : official journal of the American Thyroid Association 20190927 11

<b><i>Background:</i></b> Gene panels are routinely used to assess predisposition to hereditary cancers by simultaneously testing multiple susceptibility genes and/or variants. More recently, genetic panels have been implemented as part of solid tumor malignancy testing assessing somatic alterations. One example is targeted variant panels for thyroid nodules that are not conclusively malignant or benign upon fine-needle aspiration (FNA). We systematically reviewed published studies from 2009 to ...[more]

PMID: 31469053

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Project description:ImportanceUse of next-generation sequencing of RNA and machine learning algorithms can classify the risk of malignancy in cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules to limit unnecessary diagnostic surgery.ObjectiveTo measure the performance of a genomic sequencing classifier for cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules.Design, setting, and participantsA blinded validation study was conducted on a set of cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules collected by fine-needle aspiration biopsy between June 2009 and December 2010 from 49 academic and community centers in the United States. All patients underwent surgery without genomic information and were assigned a histopathology diagnosis by an expert panel blinded to all genomic information. There were 210 potentially eligible thyroid biopsy samples with Bethesda III or IV indeterminate cytopathology that constituted a cohort previously used to validate the gene expression classifier. Of these, 191 samples (91.0%) had adequate residual RNA for validation of the genomic sequencing classifier. Algorithm development and independent validation occurred between August 2016 and May 2017.ExposuresThyroid nodule surgical histopathology diagnosis by an expert panel blinded to all genomic data.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary end point was measurement of genomic sequencing classifier sensitivity, specificity, and negative and positive predictive values in biopsies from Bethesda III and IV nodules. The secondary end point was measurement of classifier performance in biopsies from Bethesda II, V, and VI nodules.ResultsOf the 183 included patients, 142 (77.6%) were women, and the mean (range) age was 51.7 (22.0-85.0) years. The genomic sequencing classifier had a sensitivity of 91% (95% CI, 79-98) and a specificity of 68% (95% CI, 60-76). At 24% cancer prevalence, the negative predictive value was 96% (95% CI, 90-99) and the positive predictive value was 47% (95% CI, 36-58).Conclusions and relevanceThe genomic sequencing classifier demonstrates high sensitivity and accuracy for identifying benign nodules. Its 36% increase in specificity compared with the gene expression classifier potentially increases the number of patients with benign nodules who can safely avoid unnecessary diagnostic surgery.

Project description:ImportanceTens of thousands of unnecessary operations are performed each year for diagnostic purposes among patients with cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules. Whereas a diagnostic lobectomy is recommended for most patients with solitary indeterminate thyroid nodules, a total thyroidectomy is preferred for nodules larger than 4 cm.ObjectiveTo determine whether histologic or clinical outcomes of indeterminate thyroid nodules 4 cm or larger are worse than those for nodules smaller than 4 cm, thus justifying a more aggressive initial surgical approach.Design, setting, and participantsIn this retrospective cohort study, 652 indeterminate thyroid nodules (546 nodules <4 cm and 106 nodules ≥4 cm) with surgical follow-up were consecutively evaluated at an academic cancer center from October 1, 2008, through April 30, 2016.ExposureTumor size.Main outcomes and measuresDifferences in cancer rates, rates of invasive features, cancer aggressiveness, and response to therapy between indeterminate thyroid nodules smaller than 4 cm and 4 cm or larger.ResultsA total of 652 indeterminate thyroid nodules (546 nodules <4 cm and 106 nodules ≥4 cm) from 589 patients (mean [SD] age, 53.1 [13.8] years; 453 [76.9%] female) were studied. No differences were found in the baseline characteristics of patients or nodules between the 2 size groups. Tumor size was not associated with the cancer rate as a categorical (140 of 546 [25.6%] for nodules <4 cm and 33 of 106 [31.1%] for nodules ≥4 cm; effect size, 0.05; 95% CI, 0.002-0.12) or continuous (odds ratio [OR], 1.03; 95% CI, 0.92-1.15) variable. No association was found between nodule size and prevalence of extrathyroidal extension, positive margins, lymphovascular invasion, lymph node metastasis, or distant metastasis. Most malignant tumors were low risk in both size groups (70% in the nodules <4 cm and 72% in the nodules ≥4 cm), and tumor size was not associated with tumor aggressiveness as a categorical (effect size, 0.10; 95% CI, 0.03-0.31) or continuous variable (OR for intermediate-risk cancer, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.72-1.14; OR for high-risk cancer, 1.43; 95% CI, 0.96-2.15). At the last follow-up visit, 88 of 105 patients (83.8%) with malignant tumors in the smaller than 4 cm group and 21 of 25 (84.0%) in the 4 cm or greater group had no evidence of disease, and tumor size was not associated with response to therapy (effect size, 0.13; 95% CI, 0.07-0.33).Conclusions and relevanceMost indeterminate thyroid nodules are benign or low-risk malignant tumors regardless of tumor size. In the absence of other indications for total thyroidectomy, this study suggests that a thyroid lobectomy is sufficient initial treatment for most solitary cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules independent of the tumor size.

Project description:BackgroundIndeterminate categories of thyroid cytopathology (categories B-III and B-IV of the Bethesda system) are integrated by a heterogeneous spectrum of cytological scenarios that are generally clustered for analysis and management recommendations. It has been suggested that aspirates exhibiting nuclear atypia have a higher risk of malignancy. This study aimed to assess whether cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules with nuclear atypia have a significantly higher cancer risk than those without nuclear atypia.MethodsOn June 30, 2016, PubMed and EMBASE were searched for articles in English or Spanish using a search strategy developed by an endocrinologist and a librarian. Case reports were excluded, and no date limits were used. The references of all included studies were also screened for relevant missing studies. Studies were included if the prevalences of malignancy of cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules with histological confirmation with and without nuclear atypia were reported. Studies were excluded if they had: (i) nodules suspicious for malignancy; (ii) nodules with non-indeterminate (B-III or B-IV) cytology on repeated biopsy, if performed; (iii) nodules not consecutively evaluated; or (iv) cohorts overlapping with another larger series. Two investigators independently assessed the eligibility and risk of bias of the studies. PRISMA and MOOSE guidelines were followed. Summary data were extracted from published reports by one investigator and independently reviewed by another. Data were pooled using a random-effects model. Heterogeneity was explored using subgroup analysis and mixed-effect model meta-regression. The odds ratio for malignancy of cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules with nuclear atypia over cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules without nuclear atypia was calculated.ResultsOf 2571 retrieved studies, 20 were eligible. The meta-analysis was conducted on summary data of 3532 cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules: 1162 with and 2370 without nuclear atypia. The odds ratio for malignancy in cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules with nuclear atypia was 3.63 [confidence interval 3.06-4.35]. There was no evidence of publication bias, and heterogeneity was insignificant (I2 < 0.01%, p = 0.40).ConclusionsNuclear atypia is a significant indicator of malignancy in cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules and needs to be standardized and implemented into clinical practice.

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Molecular Variants and Their Risks for Malignancy in Cytologically Indeterminate Thyroid Nodules.

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Molecular Variants and Their Risks for Malignancy in Cytologically Indeterminate Thyroid Nodules.

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