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Assessing the risk of early unplanned rehospitalisation in preterm babies: EPIPAGE 2 study.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Gaining a better understanding of the probability, timing and prediction of rehospitalisation amongst preterm babies could help improve outcomes. There is limited research addressing these topics amongst extremely and very preterm babies. In this context, unplanned rehospitalisations constitute an important, potentially modifiable adverse event. We aimed to establish the probability, time-distribution and predictability of unplanned rehospitalisation within 30?days of discharge in a population of French preterm babies. METHODS:This study used data from EPIPAGE 2, a population-based prospective study of French preterm babies. Only those babies discharged home alive and whose parents responded to the one-year survey were eligible for inclusion in our study. For Kaplan-Meier analysis, the outcome was unplanned rehospitalisation censored at 30?days. For predictive modelling, the outcome was binary, recording unplanned rehospitalisation within 30?days of discharge. Predictors included routine clinical variables selected based on expert opinion. RESULTS:Of 3841 eligible babies, 350 (9.1, 95% CI 8.2-10.1) experienced an unplanned rehospitalisation within 30?days. The probability of rehospitalisation progressed at a consistent rate over the 30?days. There were significant differences in rehospitalisation probability by gestational age. The cross-validated performance of a ten predictor model demonstrated low discrimination and calibration. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.62 (95% CI 0.59-0.65). CONCLUSIONS:Unplanned rehospitalisation within 30?days of discharge was infrequent and the probability of rehospitalisation progressed at a consistent rate. Lower gestational age increased the probability of rehospitalisation. Predictive models comprised of clinically important variables had limited predictive ability.

SUBMITTER: Reed RA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6870221 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Assessing the risk of early unplanned rehospitalisation in preterm babies: EPIPAGE 2 study.

Reed Robert Anthony RA Morgan Andrei Scott AS Zeitlin Jennifer J Jarreau Pierre-Henri PH Torchin Héloïse H Pierrat Véronique V Ancel Pierre-Yves PY Khoshnood Babak B

BMC pediatrics 20191121 1

<h4>Background</h4>Gaining a better understanding of the probability, timing and prediction of rehospitalisation amongst preterm babies could help improve outcomes. There is limited research addressing these topics amongst extremely and very preterm babies. In this context, unplanned rehospitalisations constitute an important, potentially modifiable adverse event. We aimed to establish the probability, time-distribution and predictability of unplanned rehospitalisation within 30 days of discharg ...[more]

PMID: 31752782

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Project description:Introduction: Preterm babies are a vulnerable population that experience significant short and long-term morbidity. Rehospitalisations constitute an important, potentially modifiable adverse event in this population. Improving the ability of clinicians to identify those patients at the greatest risk of rehospitalisation has the potential to improve outcomes and reduce costs. Machine-learning algorithms can provide potentially advantageous methods of prediction compared to conventional approaches like logistic regression. Objective: To compare two machine-learning methods (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and random forest) to expert-opinion driven logistic regression modelling for predicting unplanned rehospitalisation within 30 days in a large French cohort of preterm babies. Design, Setting and Participants: This study used data derived exclusively from the population-based prospective cohort study of French preterm babies, EPIPAGE 2. Only those babies discharged home alive and whose parents completed the 1-year survey were eligible for inclusion in our study. All predictive models used a binary outcome, denoting a baby's status for an unplanned rehospitalisation within 30 days of discharge. Predictors included those quantifying clinical, treatment, maternal and socio-demographic factors. The predictive abilities of models constructed using LASSO and random forest algorithms were compared with a traditional logistic regression model. The logistic regression model comprised 10 predictors, selected by expert clinicians, while the LASSO and random forest included 75 predictors. Performance measures were derived using 10-fold cross-validation. Performance was quantified using area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity, Tjur's coefficient of determination and calibration measures. Results: The rate of 30-day unplanned rehospitalisation in the eligible population used to construct the models was 9.1% (95% CI 8.2-10.1) (350/3,841). The random forest model demonstrated both an improved AUROC (0.65; 95% CI 0.59-0.7; p = 0.03) and specificity vs. logistic regression (AUROC 0.57; 95% CI 0.51-0.62, p = 0.04). The LASSO performed similarly (AUROC 0.59; 95% CI 0.53-0.65; p = 0.68) to logistic regression. Conclusions: Compared to an expert-specified logistic regression model, random forest offered improved prediction of 30-day unplanned rehospitalisation in preterm babies. However, all models offered relatively low levels of predictive ability, regardless of modelling method.

Project description:BackgroundPerinatal decision-making affects outcomes for extremely preterm babies (22-26 weeks' gestational age (GA)): more active units have improved survival without increased morbidity. We hypothesised such units may gain skills and expertise meaning babies at higher gestational ages have better outcomes than if they were born elsewhere. We examined mortality and morbidity outcomes at age two for babies born at 27-28 weeks' GA in relation to the intensity of perinatal care provided to extremely preterm babies.MethodsFetuses from the 2011 French national prospective EPIPAGE-2 cohort, alive at maternal admission to a level 3 hospital and delivered at 27-28 weeks' GA, were included. Morbidity-free survival (survival without sensorimotor (blindness, deafness or cerebral palsy) disability) and overall survival at age two were examined. Sensorimotor disability and Ages and Stages Questionnaire (ASQ) result below threshold among survivors were secondary outcomes. Perinatal care intensity level was based on birth hospital, grouped using the ratio of 24-25 weeks' GA babies admitted to neonatal intensive care to fetuses of the same gestation alive at maternal admission. Sensitivity analyses used ratios based upon antenatal steroids, Caesarean section, and newborn resuscitation. Multiple imputation was used for missing data; hierarchical logistic regression accounted for births nested within centres.Results633 of 747 fetuses (84.7%) born at 27-28 weeks' GA survived to age two. There were no differences in survival or morbidity-free survival: respectively, fully adjusted odds ratios were 0.96 (95% CI: 0.54 to 1.71) and 1.09 (95% CI: 0.59 to 2.01) in medium and 1.12 (95% CI: 0.63 to 2.00) and 1.16 (95% CI: 0.62 to 2.16) in high compared to low-intensity hospitals. Among survivors, there were no differences in sensorimotor disability or ASQ below threshold. Sensitivity analyses were consistent with the main results.ConclusionsNo difference was seen in survival or morbidity-free survival at two years of age among fetuses alive at maternal hospital admission born at 27-28 weeks' GA, or in sensorimotor disability or presence of an ASQ below threshold among survivors. There is no evidence for an impact of intensity of perinatal care for extremely preterm babies on births at a higher gestational age.

Project description:ObjectivesTo describe neurodevelopment at age 5 among children born preterm.DesignPopulation based cohort study, EPIPAGE-2.SettingFrance, 2011.Participants4441 children aged 5½ born at 24-26, 27-31, and 32-34 weeks MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Severe/moderate neurodevelopmental disabilities, defined as severe/moderate cerebral palsy (Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS) ≥2), or unilateral or bilateral blindness or deafness, or full scale intelligence quotient less than minus two standard deviations (Wechsler Preschool and Primary Scale of Intelligence, 4th edition). Mild neurodevelopmental disabilities, defined as mild cerebral palsy (GMFCS-1), or visual disability ≥3.2/10 and <5/10, or hearing loss <40 dB, or full scale intelligence quotient (minus two to minus one standard deviation) or developmental coordination disorders (Movement Assessment Battery for Children, 2nd edition, total score less than or equal to the fifth centile), or behavioural difficulties (strengths and difficulties questionnaire, total score greater than or equal to the 90th centile), school assistance (mainstream class with support or special school), complex developmental interventions, and parents' concerns about development. The distributions of the scores in contemporary term born children were used as reference. Results are given after multiple imputation as percentages of outcome measures with exact binomial 95% confidence intervals.ResultsAmong 4441 participants, 3083 (69.4%) children were assessed. Rates of severe/moderate neurodevelopmental disabilities were 28% (95% confidence interval 23.4% to 32.2%), 19% (16.8% to 20.7%), and 12% (9.2% to 14.0%) and of mild disabilities were 38.5% (33.7% to 43.4%), 36% (33.4% to 38.1%), and 34% (30.2% to 37.4%) at 24-26, 27-31, and 32-34 weeks, respectively. Assistance at school was used by 27% (22.9% to 31.7%), 14% (12.1% to 15.9%), and 7% (4.4% to 9.0%) of children at 24-26, 27-31, and 32-34 weeks, respectively. About half of the children born at 24-26 weeks (52% (46.4% to 57.3%)) received at least one developmental intervention which decreased to 26% (21.8% to 29.4%) for those born at 32-34 weeks. Behaviour was the concern most commonly reported by parents. Rates of neurodevelopment disabilities increased as gestational age decreased and were higher in families with low socioeconomic status.ConclusionsIn this large cohort of children born preterm, rates of severe/moderate neurodevelopmental disabilities remained high in each gestational age group. Proportions of children receiving school assistance or complex developmental interventions might have a significant impact on educational and health organisations. Parental concerns about behaviour warrant attention.

Project description:Aims and objectivesTo explore the experiences of mothers of extremely premature babies during their Neonatal Intensive Care Unit stay and transition home.BackgroundMothers of extremely preterm infants (28 weeks' gestation or less) experience a continuum of regular and repeated stressful and traumatic events, during the perinatal period, during the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit stay, and during transition home.MethodAn interpretive description method guided this study. Ten mothers of extremely premature infants who had been at home for less than six months were recruited via a Facebook invitation to participate in semi-structured telephone interviews exploring their experiences in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit and the transition home. The data were examined using a six-phase thematic analysis approach. The COREQ checklist has been used.ResultsTwo main themes emerged: (a) things got a bit dire; and (b) feeling a failure as a mother. Participants had a heightened risk of developing a mental disorder from exposure to multiple risk factors prior to and during birth, as well as during the postnatal period in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit and their infant's transition to home. Mothers highlighted the minimal support for their mental health from healthcare professionals, despite their regular and repeated experience of traumatic events.ConclusionThe mothers were at high risk of developing post-traumatic stress symptoms and/or other mental health issues. Of note, study participants relived the trauma of witnessing their infant in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit, demonstrated hypervigilance behaviour and identified lack of relevant support needed when their infant was at home.Relevance to clinical practiceThis study highlights the need for nurses to include a focus on the mothers' psychosocial needs. Supporting maternal mental health both improves maternal well-being and enables mothers to be emotionally available and responsive to their extremely preterm infant.

Dataset Information

Assessing the risk of early unplanned rehospitalisation in preterm babies: EPIPAGE 2 study.

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Assessing the risk of early unplanned rehospitalisation in preterm babies: EPIPAGE 2 study.

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