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Air pollution and mortality in a large, representative U.S. cohort: multiple-pollutant analyses, and spatial and temporal decompositions.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Cohort studies have documented associations between fine particulate matter air pollution (PM2.5) and mortality risk. However, there remains uncertainty regarding the contribution of co-pollutants and the stability of pollution-mortality associations in models that include multiple air pollutants. Furthermore, it is unclear whether the PM2.5-mortality relationship varies spatially, when exposures are decomposed according to scale of spatial variability, or temporally, when effect estimates are allowed to change between years. METHODS:A cohort of 635,539 individuals was compiled using public National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) data from 1987 to 2014 and linked with mortality follow-up through 2015. Modelled air pollution exposure estimates for PM2.5, other criteria air pollutants, and spatial decompositions (?100?km) of PM2.5 were assigned at the census-tract level. The NHIS samples were also divided into yearly cohorts for temporally-decomposed analyses. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) in regression models that included up to six criteria pollutants; four spatial decompositions of PM2.5; and two- and five-year lagged mean PM2.5 exposures in the temporally-decomposed cohorts. Meta-analytic fixed-effect estimates were calculated using results from temporally-decomposed analyses and compared with time-independent results using 17- and 28-year exposure windows. RESULTS:In multiple-pollutant analyses, PM2.5 demonstrated the most robust pollutant-mortality association. Coarse fraction particulate matter (PM2.5-10) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) were also associated with excess mortality risk. The PM2.5-mortality association was observed across all four spatial scales of PM2.5, with higher but less precisely estimated HRs observed for local (

SUBMITTER: Lefler JS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6873509 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Air pollution and mortality in a large, representative U.S. cohort: multiple-pollutant analyses, and spatial and temporal decompositions.

Lefler Jacob S JS Higbee Joshua D JD Burnett Richard T RT Ezzati Majid M Coleman Nathan C NC Mann Dalton D DD Marshall Julian D JD Bechle Matthew M Wang Yuzhou Y Robinson Allen L AL Arden Pope C C

Environmental health : a global access science source 20191121 1

<h4>Background</h4>Cohort studies have documented associations between fine particulate matter air pollution (PM<sub>2.5</sub>) and mortality risk. However, there remains uncertainty regarding the contribution of co-pollutants and the stability of pollution-mortality associations in models that include multiple air pollutants. Furthermore, it is unclear whether the PM<sub>2.5</sub>-mortality relationship varies spatially, when exposures are decomposed according to scale of spatial variability, o ...[more]

PMID: 31752939

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Project description:BackgroundEvidence indicates that air pollution contributes to cardiopulmonary mortality. There is ongoing debate regarding the size and shape of the pollution–mortality exposure–response relationship. There are also growing appeals for estimates of pollution–mortality relationships that use public data and are based on large, representative study cohorts.ObjectivesOur goal was to evaluate fine particulate matter air pollution ([Formula: see text]) and mortality using a large cohort that is representative of the U.S. population and is based on public data. Additional objectives included exploring model sensitivity, evaluating relative effects across selected subgroups, and assessing the shape of the [Formula: see text]–mortality relationship.MethodsNational Health Interview Surveys (1986–2014), with mortality linkage through 2015, were used to create a cohort of 1,599,329 U.S. adults and a subcohort with information on smoking and body mass index (BMI) of 635,539 adults. Data were linked with modeled ambient [Formula: see text] at the census-tract level. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate [Formula: see text]–mortality hazard ratios for all-cause and specific causes of death while controlling for individual risk factors and regional and urban versus rural differences. Sensitivity and subgroup analyses were conducted and the shape of the [Formula: see text]–mortality relationship was explored.ResultsEstimated mortality hazard ratios, per [Formula: see text] long-term exposure to [Formula: see text], were 1.12 (95% CI: 1.08, 1.15) for all-cause mortality, 1.23 (95% CI: 1.17, 1.29) for cardiopulmonary mortality, and 1.12 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.26) for lung cancer mortality. In general, [Formula: see text]–mortality associations were consistently positive for all-cause and cardiopulmonary mortality across key modeling choices and across subgroups of sex, age, race-ethnicity, income, education levels, and geographic regions.DiscussionThis large, nationwide, representative cohort of U.S. adults provides robust evidence that long-term [Formula: see text] exposure contributes to cardiopulmonary mortality risk. The ubiquitous and involuntary nature of exposures and the broadly observed effects across subpopulations underscore the public health importance of breathing clean air. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4438.

Project description:Several cohort studies suggest greenness is associated with decreased mortality risk. Potential confounding by or interactions between physical activity and air pollution remains unclear. This study evaluates associations of greenness, air pollution, and physical activity with mortality risk and investigates confounding and effect modification across these key risk factors. National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) data covering 1997-2014 were linked to the National Death Index to generate a cohort of 403,748 individuals with 39,528 deaths. Greenness, represented by census-tract Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for the seasonal period of May-October, was averaged over the years 2003-2016. Air pollution was estimated by census-tract level PM2.5 concentrations from 1999 to 2015. Cox Proportional Hazard Models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) for differences in greenness, air pollution, and physical activity. Alternative models that evaluated potential confounding and stratified models that evaluated effect modification were examined. Mortality risks were associated with PM2.5 (HR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.09-1.19 per 10 μg/m3) and physical inactivity (1.49, 1.44-1.54 relative to sufficiently active), but not with greenness (1.01, 0.99-1.03 per IQR). The PM2.5-mortality association was mitigated at high levels of greenness (1.05, 0.91-1.22). There was no strong evidence of confounding between air pollution, physical activity, and greenness. However, stratified analysis suggested effect modification for PM2.5 and NDVI by physical activity. A significant protective greenness-mortality association was observed for only highly active individuals (0.91, 0.86-0.96). Also, relatively high PM2.5-mortality HRs were observed for more physically active individuals (1.25, 1.12-1.40). PM2.5 air pollution and physical inactivity are robustly associated with mortality risk. Greenness may be most beneficial and air pollution relatively harmful to highly active individuals. This analysis provides evidence that, in addition to not smoking, being physically active and living in a clean, green environment contributes to improved health and reduced risk of mortality.

Project description:Railyards are important transportation hubs, and they are often situated near populated areas with high co-located density of manufacturing, freight movement and commercial enterprises. Emissions occurring within railyards can affect nearby air quality. To better understand the air pollution levels in proximity to a major railyard, an intensive mobile air monitoring study was conducted in May 2012 around a major railyard area in Atlanta, GA, constituted of two separate facilities situated side-by-side. A total of 19 multi-hour mobile monitoring sessions took place over different times of day, days of the week, and under a variety of wind conditions. High time resolution measurements included black carbon (BC), particle number concentration (PN), particle optical extinction (EXT), oxides of nitrogen (NO, NO₂, NOy), carbon monoxide (CO), and speciated air toxics. Urban background was estimated to contribute substantially (>70%) to EXT and CO, whereas BC, oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and toluene had comparably low background contributions (<30%). Mobile monitoring data were aggregated into 50 meter spatial medians by wind categories, with categories including low speed wind conditions (<0.5 m s-1) and, for wind speeds above that threshold, by wind direction relative to the railyard. Spatial medians of different pollutants measured had a wide range of correlation-gas-phase air toxics (benzene, toluene, acetaldehyde) had moderate correlation with each other (r = 0.46⁻0.59) and between toluene and CO (r = 0.53), but lower correlation for other pairings. PN had highest correlation with oxides of nitrogen (r = 0.55⁻0.66), followed by BC (r = 0.4), and lower correlation with other pollutants. Multivariate regression analysis on the full set of 50 m medians found BC and NO as having the strongest relationship to railyard emissions, in comparison to their respective background levels. This was indicated by an increase associated with transiting through the yard and inverse relationship with distance from the railyard; NO and BC decreased by a factor of approximately 0.5 and 0.7 over 1 km distance of the railyard boundary, respectively. Low speed, variable wind conditions were related to higher concentrations of all measured parameters.

Project description:Vehicle emissions represent one of the most important air pollution sources in most urban areas, and elevated concentrations of pollutants found near major roads have been associated with many adverse health impacts. To understand these impacts, exposure estimates should reflect the spatial and temporal patterns observed for traffic-related air pollutants. This paper evaluates the spatial resolution and zonal systems required to estimate accurately intraurban and near-road exposures of traffic-related air pollutants. The analyses use the detailed information assembled for a large (800 km2) area centered on Detroit, Michigan, USA. Concentrations of nitrogen oxides (NOx) due to vehicle emissions were estimated using hourly traffic volumes and speeds on 9,700 links representing all but minor roads in the city, the MOVES2010 emission model, the RLINE dispersion model, local meteorological data, a temporal resolution of 1 hr, and spatial resolution as low as 10 m. Model estimates were joined with the corresponding shape files to estimate residential exposures for 700,000 individuals at property parcel, census block, census tract, and ZIP code levels. We evaluate joining methods, the spatial resolution needed to meet specific error criteria, and the extent of exposure misclassification. To portray traffic-related air pollutant exposure, raster or inverse distance-weighted interpolations are superior to nearest neighbor approaches, and interpolations between receptors and points of interest should not exceed about 40 m near major roads, and 100 m at larger distances. For census tracts and ZIP codes, average exposures are overestimated since few individuals live very near major roads, the range of concentrations is compressed, most exposures are misclassified, and high concentrations near roads are entirely omitted. While smaller zones improve performance considerably, even block-level data can misclassify many individuals. To estimate exposures and impacts of traffic-related pollutants accurately, data should be geocoded or estimated at the most-resolved spatial level; census tract and larger zones have little if any ability to represent intraurban variation in traffic-related air pollutant concentrations. These results are based on one of the most comprehensive intraurban modeling studies in the literature and results are robust. Recommendations address the value of dispersion models to portray spatial and temporal variation of air pollutants in epidemiology and other studies; techniques to improve accuracy and reduce the computational burden in urban scale modeling; the necessary spatial resolution for health surveillance, demographic, and pollution data; and the consequences of low resolution data in terms of exposure misclassification.

Dataset Information

Air pollution and mortality in a large, representative U.S. cohort: multiple-pollutant analyses, and spatial and temporal decompositions.

Publications

Air pollution and mortality in a large, representative U.S. cohort: multiple-pollutant analyses, and spatial and temporal decompositions.

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