Dataset Information

Predicting the performance of TV series through textual and network analysis: The case of Big Bang Theory.

ABSTRACT: TV series represent a growing sector of the entertainment industry. Being able to predict their performance allows a broadcasting network to better focus the high investment needed for their preparation. In this paper, we consider a well known TV series-The Big Bang Theory-to identify factors leading to its success. The factors considered are mostly related to the script, such as the characteristics of dialogues (e.g., length, language complexity, sentiment), while the performance is measured by the reviews submitted by viewers (namely the number of reviews as a measure of popularity and the viewers' ratings as a measure of appreciation). Through correlation and regression analysis, two sets of predictors are identified respectively for appreciation and popularity. In particular the episode number, the percentage of male viewers, the language complexity and text length emerge as the best predictors for popularity, while again the percentage of male viewers and the language complexity plus the number of we-words and the concentration of dialogues are the best choice for appreciation.

SUBMITTER: Fronzetti Colladon A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6874063 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting the performance of TV series through textual and network analysis: The case of Big Bang Theory.

Fronzetti Colladon Andrea A Naldi Maurizio M

PloS one 20191121 11

TV series represent a growing sector of the entertainment industry. Being able to predict their performance allows a broadcasting network to better focus the high investment needed for their preparation. In this paper, we consider a well known TV series-The Big Bang Theory-to identify factors leading to its success. The factors considered are mostly related to the script, such as the characteristics of dialogues (e.g., length, language complexity, sentiment), while the performance is measured by ...[more]

PMID: 31751391

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Project description:BackgroundOnline broadcasting substantially affects the production, distribution, and profit of TV series. In addition, online word-of-mouth significantly affects the diffusion of TV series. Because on-demand streaming rates are the most important factor that influences the earnings of online video suppliers, streaming statistics and forecasting trends are valuable. In this paper, we investigate the effects of periodic impulsive stimulation and pre-launch promotion on on-demand streaming dynamics. We consider imbalanced audience feverish distribution using an impulsive susceptible-infected-removed(SIR)-like model. In addition, we perform a correlation analysis of online buzz volume based on Baidu Index data.MethodsWe propose a PI-SIR model to evolve audience dynamics and translate them into on-demand streaming fluctuations, which can be observed and comprehended by online video suppliers. Six South Korean TV series datasets are used to test the model. We develop a coarse-to-fine two-step fitting scheme to estimate the model parameters, first by fitting inter-period accumulation and then by fitting inner-period feverish distribution.ResultsWe find that audience members display similar viewing habits. That is, they seek new episodes every update day but fade away. This outcome means that impulsive intensity plays a crucial role in on-demand streaming diffusion. In addition, the initial audience size and online buzz are significant factors. On-demand streaming fluctuation is highly correlated with online buzz fluctuation.ConclusionTo stimulate audience attention and interpersonal diffusion, it is worthwhile to invest in promotion near update days. Strong pre-launch promotion is also a good marketing tool to improve overall performance. It is not advisable for online video providers to promote several popular TV series on the same update day. Inter-period accumulation is a feasible forecasting tool to predict the future trend of the on-demand streaming amount. The buzz in public social communities also represents a highly correlated analysis tool to evaluate the advertising value of TV series.

Dataset Information

Predicting the performance of TV series through textual and network analysis: The case of Big Bang Theory.

Publications

Predicting the performance of TV series through textual and network analysis: The case of Big Bang Theory.

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