The early change of SOFA score as a prognostic marker of 28-day sepsis mortality: analysis through a derivation and a validation cohort.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Karakike E
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6884794 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Nov
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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The early change of SOFA score as a prognostic marker of 28-day sepsis mortality: analysis through a derivation and a validation cohort.
Karakike Eleni E Kyriazopoulou Evdoxia E Tsangaris Iraklis I Routsi Christina C Vincent Jean-Louis JL Giamarellos-Bourboulis Evangelos J EJ
Critical care (London, England) 20191129 1
<h4>Background</h4>Since the Sepsis-3 criteria, change in Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score has become a key component of sepsis identification. Thus, it could be argued that reversal of this change (Δ<sub>SOFA</sub>) may reflect sepsis response and could be used as measure of efficacy in interventional trials. We aimed to assess the predictive performance of Δ<sub>SOFA</sub> for 28-day mortality.<h4>Methods</h4>Data from two previously published randomized controlled trials were ...[more]
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Project description:BackgroundThe sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score has poor discriminative ability for death in severely or critically ill patients with Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) requiring intensive care unit (ICU) admission. Our aim was to create a new score powered to predict 28-day mortality.MethodsRetrospective, observational, bicentric cohort study including 425 patients with COVID-19 pneumonia, acute respiratory failure and SOFA score ≥ 2 requiring ICU admission for ≥72 h. Factors with independent predictive value for 28-day mortality were identified after stepwise Cox proportional hazards (PH) regression. Based on the regression coefficients, an equation was computed representing the COVID-SOFA score. Discriminative ability was tested using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, concordance statistics and precision-recall curves. This score was internally validated.ResultsMedian (Q1-Q3) age for the whole sample was 64 [55-72], with 290 (68.2%) of patients being male. The 28-day mortality was 54.58%. After stepwise Cox PH regression, age, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and SOFA score remained in the final model. The following equation was computed: COVID-SOFA score = 10 × [0.037 × Age + 0.347 × ln(NLR) + 0.16 × SOFA]. Harrell's C-index for the COVID-SOFA score was higher than the SOFA score alone for 28-day mortality (0.697 [95% CI; 0.662-0.731] versus 0.639 [95% CI: 0.605-0.672]). Subsequently, the prediction error rate was improved up to 16.06%. Area under the ROC (AUROC) was significantly higher for the COVID-SOFA score compared with the SOFA score for 28-day mortality: 0.796 [95% CI: 0.755-0.833] versus 0.699 [95% CI: 0.653-0.742, p < 0.001]. Better predictive value was observed with repeated measurement at 48 h after ICU admission.ConclusionsThe COVID-SOFA score is better than the SOFA score alone for 28-day mortality prediction. Improvement in predictive value seen with measurements at 48 h after ICU admission suggests that the COVID-SOFA score can be used in a repetitive manner. External validation is required to support these results.
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Project description:BackgroundSepsis is a common critical condition caused by the body's overwhelming response to certain infective agents. Many biomarkers, including the serum lactate level, have been used for sepsis diagnosis and guiding treatment. Recently, the Third International Consensus Definitions for Sepsis and Septic Shock (Sepsis-3) recommended the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) and the quick SOFA (qSOFA) rather than lactate for screening sepsis and assess prognosis. Here, we aim to explore and compare the prognostic accuracy of the lactate level, the SOFA score and the qSOFA score for mortality in septic patients using the public Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III database (MIMIC III).MethodsThe baseline characteristics, laboratory test results and outcomes for sepsis patients were retrieved from MIMIC III. Survival was analysed by the Kaplan-Meier method. Univariate and multivariate analysis was performed to identify predictors of prognosis. Receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis was conducted to compare lactate with SOFA and qSOFA scores.ResultsA total of 3713 cases were initially identified. The analysis cohort included 1865 patients. The 24-h average lactate levels and the worst scores during the first 24 h of ICU admission were collected. Patients in the higher lactate group had higher mortality than those in the lower lactate group. Lactate was an independent predictor of sepsis prognosis. The AUROC of lactate (AUROC, 0.664 [95% CI, 0.639-0.689]) was significantly higher than that of qSOFA (AUROC, 0.547 [95% CI, 0.521-0.574]), and it was similar to the AUROC of SOFA (AUROC, 0.686 [95% CI, 0.661-0.710]). But the timing of lactate relative to SOFA and qSOFA scores was inconsistent.ConclusionLactate is an independent prognostic predictor of mortality for patients with sepsis. It has superior discriminative power to qSOFA, and shows discriminative ability similar to that of SOFA.
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Project description:The most common scoring system for critically ill patients is the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score. Little is known about specific molecular signaling networks underlying the SOFA criteria. We characterized these networks and identified specific key regulatory molecules. We prospectively studied seven patients with sepsis and six controls with high-throughput RNA sequencing (RNAseq). Quantitative reverse transcription PCR (RT-qPCR) confirmation was performed in a second independent cohort. Differentially and significantly expressed miRNAs and their target mRNA transcripts were filtered for admission SOFA criteria and marker RNAs for the respective criteria identified. We bioinformatically constructed molecular signaling networks specifically reflecting these criteria followed by RT-qPCR confirmation of RNAs with important regulatory functions in the networks in the second cohort. RNAseq identified 82 miRNAs (45% upregulated) and 3254 mRNAs (50% upregulated) differentially expressed between sepsis patients and controls. Bioinformatic analysis characterized 6 miRNAs and 76 mRNA target transcripts specific for the SOFA criteria. RT-qPCR validated miRNA and mRNAs included IGFBP2 (respiratory system); MMP9 and PDE4B (nervous system); PPARG (cardiovascular system); AKR1B1, ANXA1, and LNC2/NGAL (acute kidney injury); GFER/ALR (liver); and miR-30c-3p (coagulopathy). There are specific canonical networks underlying the SOFA score. Key regulatory miRNA and mRNA transcripts support its biologic validity.
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Project description:BackgroundPrehospital recognition of sepsis may inform case management by ambulance clinicians, as well as inform transport decisions. The objective of this study was to develop a prehospital sepsis screening tool for use by ambulance clinicians.MethodsWe derived and validated a sepsis screening tool, utilising univariable logistic regression models to identify predictors for inclusion, and multivariable logistic regression to generate the SEPSIS score. We utilised a retrospective cohort of adult patients transported by ambulance (n?=?38483) to hospital between 01 July 2013 and 30 June 2014. Records were linked using LinkPlus® software. Successful linkage was achieved in 33289 cases (86%). Eligible patients included adult, non-trauma, non-mental health, non-cardiac arrest cases. Of 33289 linked cases, 22945 cases were eligible. Eligible cases were divided into derivation (n?=?16063, 70%) and validation (n?=?6882, 30%) cohorts. The primary outcome measure was high risk of severe illness or death from sepsis, as defined by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence Sepsis guideline.Results'High risk of severe illness or death from sepsis' was present in 3.7% of derivation (n?=?593) and validation (n?=?254) cohorts. The SEPSIS score comprises the following variables: age, respiratory rate, peripheral oxygen saturations, heart rate, systolic blood pressure, temperature and level of consciousness (p?<?0.001 for all variables). Area under the curve was 0.87 (95%CI 0.85-0.88) for the derivation cohort, and 0.86 (95%CI 0.84-0.88) for the validation cohort. In an undifferentiated adult medical population, for a SEPSIS score???5, sensitivity was 0.37 (0.31-0.44), specificity was 0.96 (0.96-0.97), positive predictive value was 0.27 (0.23-0.32), negative predictive value was 0.97 (0.96-0.97), positive likelihood value was 13.5 (9.7-18.73) and the negative likelihood value was 0.83 (0.78-0.88).ConclusionThis is the first screening tool developed to identify NICE high risk of severe illness or death from sepsis. The SEPSIS score is significantly associated with high risk of severe illness or death from sepsis on arrival at the Emergency Department. It may assist ambulance clinicians to identify those patients with sepsis in need of antibiotic therapy. However, it requires external validation, in clinical practice by ambulance clinicians, in an independent population.
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Project description:OBJECTIVE:To derive and validate a new clinical prediction rule to risk-stratify emergency department (ED) patients admitted with suspected sepsis. DESIGN:Retrospective prognostic study of prospectively collected data. SETTING:ED. PARTICIPANTS:Patients aged ?18 years who met two Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome criteria or one Red Flag sepsis criteria on arrival, received intravenous antibiotics for a suspected infection and admitted. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE:In-hospital all-cause mortality. METHOD:The data were divided into derivation and validation cohorts. The simplified-Mortality in Severe Sepsis in the ED score and quick-SOFA scores, refractory hypotension and lactate were collectively termed 'component scores' and cumulatively termed the 'Risk-stratification of ED suspected Sepsis (REDS) score'. Each patient in the derivation cohort received a score (0-3) for each component score. The REDS score ranged from 0 to 12. The component scores were subject to univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. The receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves for the REDS and the components scores were constructed and their cut-off points identified. Scores above the cut-off points were deemed high-risk. The area under the ROC (AUROC) curves and sensitivity for mortality of the high-risk category of the REDS score and component scores were compared. The REDS score was internally validated. RESULTS:2115 patients of whom 282 (13.3%) died in hospital. Derivation cohort: 1078 patients with 140 deaths (13%). The AUROC curve with 95% CI, cut-off point and sensitivity for mortality (95% CI) of the high-risk category of the REDS score were: derivation: 0.78 (0.75 to 0.80); ?3; 85.0 (78 to 90.5). VALIDATION:0.74 (0.71 to 0.76); ?3; 84.5 (77.5 to 90.0). The AUROC curve and the sensitivity for mortality of the REDS score was better than that of the component scores. Specificity and mortality rates for REDS scores of ?3, ?5 and ?7 were 54.8%, 88.8% and 96.9% and 21.8%, 36.0% and 49.1%, respectively. CONCLUSION:The REDS score is a simple and objective score to risk-stratify ED patients with suspected sepsis.
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Project description:Background: Recent attempts to translate Sepsis-3 criteria to children have been restricted to PICU patients and did not target children in emergency departments (ED). We assessed the prognostic accuracy of the age-adjusted quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score (qSOFA) and compared the performance to SIRS and the quick Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction-2 score (qPELOD-2). We studied whether the addition of lactate (qSOFA-L) would increase prognostic accuracy. Methods: Non-academic, single-center, retrospective study in children visiting the ED and admitted with suspected bacterial infection between March 2013 and January 2018. We defined suspected bacterial infection as initiation of antibiotic therapy within 24 h after ED entry. Age-adjusted qSOFA, SIRS, qPELOD-2, and qSOFA-L scores were compared by area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) analysis. Primary outcome measure was PICU transfer and/or mortality and secondary outcome was prolonged hospital length of stay. Results: We included 864 ED visits [474 (55%) male; median age 2.5 years; IQR 9 months-6 years], of which 18 were transferred to a PICU and 6 ended in death [composite outcome PICU transfer and/or mortality; 23 admissions (2.7%)]. 179 (22.2%) admissions resulted in prolonged hospital length of stay. PICU transfer and/or death was present in 22.5% of visits with qSOFA?2 (n = 40) compared to 2.0% of visits with qSOFA<2 (n = 444) (p < 0.01). qSOFA tends to be the best predictor of PICU transfer and/or mortality (AUROC 0.72 (95% CI, 0.57-0.86) compared to SIRS [0.64 (95% CI, 0.53-0.74), p = 0.23] and qPELOD-2 [0.60 (95% CI, 0.45-0.76), p = 0.03)]. Prolonged hospital length of stay was poorly predicted by qSOFA (AUROC 0.53, 95% CI 0.46-0.59), SIRS (0.49, 95% CI 0.44-0.54), and qPELOD-2 (0.51, 95%CI 0.45-0.57). qSOFA-L resulted in an AUROC of 0.67 (95% CI, 0.50-0.84) for PICU transfer and/or mortality and an AUROC of 0.56 (95% CI, 0.46-0.67) for prolonged hospital length of stay. Conclusion: The currently proposed bedside risk-stratification tool of Sepsis-3 criteria, qSOFA, shows moderate prognostic accuracy for PICU transfer and/or mortality in children visiting the ED with suspected bacterial infection. The addition of lactate did not improve prognostic accuracy. Future prospective studies in larger ED populations are needed to further determine the utility of the qSOFA score.
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Project description:Sepsis is a severe clinical syndrome owing to its high mortality. Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score has been proposed for the prediction of fatal outcomes in sepsis syndrome in emergency departments. Due to the low predictive performance of the qSOFA score, we propose a modification to the score by adding age. We conducted a multicenter, retrospective cohort study among regional referral centers from various regions of the country. Participants recruited data of patients admitted to emergency departments and obtained a diagnosis of sepsis syndrome. Crude in-hospital mortality was the primary endpoint. A generalized mixed-effects model with random intercepts produced estimates for adverse outcomes. Model-based recursive partitioning demonstrated the effects and thresholds of significant covariates. Scores were internally validated. The H measure compared performances of scores. A total of 580 patients from 22 centers were included for further analysis. Stages of sepsis, age, time to antibiotics, and administration of carbapenem for empirical treatment were entered the final model. Among these, severe sepsis (OR, 4.40; CIs, 2.35-8.21), septic shock (OR, 8.78; CIs, 4.37-17.66), age (OR, 1.03; CIs, 1.02-1.05) and time to antibiotics (OR, 1.05; CIs, 1.01-1.10) were significantly associated with fatal outcomes. A decision tree demonstrated the thresholds for age. We modified the quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (mod-qSOFA) score by adding age (> 50 years old = one point) and compared this to the conventional score. H-measures for qSOFA and mod-qSOFA were found to be 0.11 and 0.14, respectively, whereas AUCs of both scores were 0.64. We propose the use of the modified qSOFA score for early risk assessment among sepsis patients for improved triage and management of this fatal syndrome.
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