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Is half the world's population really below 'replacement-rate'?

ABSTRACT: A perennial activity of demographers is to estimate the percentage of the world's population which is above or below the 'replacement rate of fertility' [RRF]. However, most attempts to do so have been based upon, at best, oversimplified, or at worst, simply incorrect assumptions about what RRF actually is. The objective of this paper is to calculate the proportion of the world's population living in countries with observed period total fertility rates [TFR] below the respective calculated RRF, rather than the commonly used measure of 2.1. While the differences between comparing TFR to 2.1 or RRF are relatively modest in many periods when considering populations at the national level, a significant difference can be observed in the near future based upon India's fertility and mortality trajectories. Our exercise represents a means of 'correcting the record' using the most up-to-date evidence and using the correct protocol.

SUBMITTER: Gietel-Basten S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6886770 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Is half the world's population really below 'replacement-rate'?

Gietel-Basten Stuart S Scherbov Sergei S

PloS one 20191202 12

A perennial activity of demographers is to estimate the percentage of the world's population which is above or below the 'replacement rate of fertility' [RRF]. However, most attempts to do so have been based upon, at best, oversimplified, or at worst, simply incorrect assumptions about what RRF actually is. The objective of this paper is to calculate the proportion of the world's population living in countries with observed period total fertility rates [TFR] below the respective calculated RRF, ...[more]

PMID: 31790416

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Project description:Purpose:Magnetic resonance image guided radiation therapy (MR-IGRT) has been used at our institution since 2014. We report on more than 2 years of clinical experience in treating patients with the world's first MR-IGRT system. Methods and materials:A clinical service was opened for MR-IGRT in January 2014 with an MR-IGRT system consisting of a split 0.35T magnetic resonance scanner that straddles a ring gantry with 3 multileaf collimator-equipped 60Co heads. The service was expanded to include online adaptive radiation therapy (ART) MR-IGRT and cine gating after 6 and 9 months, respectively. Patients selected for MR-IGRT were enrolled in a prospective registry between January 2014 and June 2016. Patients were treated with a variety of radiation therapy techniques including intensity modulated radiation therapy and stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT). When applicable, online ART was performed and gating on sagittal 2-dimensional cine MR was used. The charts of patients treated with MR-IGRT were reviewed to report on the clinical and treatment characteristics of the initial patients who were treated with this novel technique. Results:A total of 316 patients have been treated with the MR-IGRT system, which has been integrated into a high-volume clinic. The cases were most commonly selected for improved soft tissue visualization, ART, and cine gating. Seventy-six patients were treated with 3-dimensional conformal radiation therapy, 146 patients with intensity modulated radiation therapy, and 94 patients with SBRT. The most commonly treated disease sites were the abdomen (28%), breast (26%), pelvis (22%), thorax (19%), and head and neck (5%). Sixty-seven patients were treated with online ART over a total of 244 adapted fractions. Cine treatment gating was used for a total of 81 patients. Conclusions:MR-IGRT has been successfully implemented in a high-volume radiation clinic and provides unique advantages in the treatment of a variety of malignancies. Additional clinical trials are in development to formally evaluate MR-IGRT in the treatment of multiple disease sites with techniques such as SBRT and ART.

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Is half the world's population really below 'replacement-rate'?

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Is half the world's population really below 'replacement-rate'?

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